29 Aralık 2016 – Serkan Şahin’in Yorumu

Aşağıdaki yorum Serkan Şahin’in hafta ortası yorumudur:

“ EIA haftalik verilerine gore toplam petrol stoklarinda 2.2 milyon varillik artis var. Bunun 1 milyon varili PADD 2 artisi. Cushing ise 245,000 varil dusus yasamis. PADD 3 ise 443,000 varil dusus yasamis. Rafineri kullanim oranlarinda toplamda %1’lik, PADD 3’te ise %1.2’lik artis var. Toplam petrol ve islenmis urun sotklarinda 11.9 milyon varil gibi muazzam bir dusus var ama bunun ham petrolden olmadigi yukaridaki degerlerden belli. Islenmis urun stoklarinda cok ciddi bir dusus var. Ham petrol ithalatinda ise 1.1 milyon varillik bir artis gorunuyor. Islenmis urun ihracatindaki dusus ile beraber bu ABD ic talebindeki artisin mevcut stoklardan desteklendigini, geri kalan ihtiyacin ise ithal petrolle karsilandigini anliyoruz bu verilerden.

Muhtemelen bunun en buyuk nedeni stoklardaki petrolun cogunun yerli hafif petrol ve kondensat karisimi olmasi, Kanada petrolunun talep bolgelerine ulasamamasi var. Bu sartlarda bile toplam uretimde 10,000 varillik azalma goruyorsak, ABD petrolunun 50 Dolar/varil ve ustu icin heyecenlananlar icin cok kotu haber. Benim surekli anlatmaya calistigim sorun da buydu. ABD’deki toparlanma cok daha radikal cozumlere ihtiyac duyuyor. Her ne kadar sondaj/kuyu tamamlama maliyetleri dusmus olsa da tasima kapasite kisintilari ve eldeki fazla miktardaki hafif petrol toparlanmayi tahminden daha fazla geciktirecek.

En son da Aramco’nun %49’unun satilacagi dedikodusu uzerine fikrimi soyleyeyim. Bazi insanlar gercekten konusmak icin konusmayi cok seviyor. Aramco ne zamanki bir devlet sirketi olmaktan cikar, halka arz edliir, %49 gibi bir payini satar ve upstream sirlarini aciga cikarir, o gun Suudi Arabistan’in petrol piyasasindaki egemenliginin ve hatta Suudi Arabistan’in varliginin sonudur. Niyetleri olasiliklar ile karistirmak ciddi bir tehlikedir. Yapmayiniz.”

“Buradaki gorusler tamamen yazarin kendi gorusleri olup Thomson Reuters ve bagli kuruluslari kesinlikle baglamaz ve goruslerini yansitmaz.”

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