{"id":842,"date":"2017-05-05T18:59:17","date_gmt":"2017-05-05T18:59:17","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/barissanli.com\/eak\/?p=842"},"modified":"2017-05-05T19:01:12","modified_gmt":"2017-05-05T19:01:12","slug":"5-mayis-2017","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/barissanli.com\/eak\/2017\/05\/5-mayis-2017\/","title":{"rendered":"5 May\u0131s 2017"},"content":{"rendered":"

B<\/span>ug\u00fcn AA Energy Desk yazarlar\u0131ndan Serdar\u2019\u0131n<\/a> yorumu a\u015fa\u011f\u0131da. Serdar finansal ve makro taraftan zaman zaman analizlerini sordu\u011fum sekt\u00f6r analistlerinden. D\u00fcn ki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn sebepleri biraz daha netle\u015fti. Anlad\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z kadar\u0131 ile teknik bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, fundamentallardan \u00e7ok da kaynaklanm\u0131yor. D\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fler T\u00fcrkiye saati ile 13:30, 15:00, 18:15, 18:45, 20:00 <\/a>civar\u0131nda olduktan sonra T\u00fcrkiye saati ile 06:15\u2019de Asya piyasas\u0131nda k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck hacimde 45.36\u2019dan 43.88$\u2019a d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. 520 milyon varil opsiyon el de\u011fi\u015ftirmi\u015f. Bu da teknik a\u00e7\u0131klamay\u0131 do\u011fruluyor. \u00c7in\u2019deki ani hareket de beklenenden zay\u0131f veriler olabilir. Bret Stephens NYT\u2019de yazd\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan beri ele\u015ftiriler bitmiyor, iklim kar\u015f\u0131t\u0131 diye ele\u015ftiriliyor. Japonlar\u0131n Jomeg ikinci metan hidrat kuyusunda da gaz yakt\u0131. Demir cevheri de da\u011f\u0131lm\u0131\u015f, ama bu\u011fday stoklar\u0131 iyi. Depoyu fulleme zaman\u0131.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Yorum \u2013 Serdar G\u00fcr\u00fcz\u00fcmc\u00fc<\/b><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

As\u0131l amac\u0131 k\u00fcresel petrol stoklar\u0131n\u0131 eritmek olan OPEC ve Non- OPEC \u00fclkelerin yakla\u015f\u0131k g\u00fcnl\u00fck 1.8 milyon varil petrol \u00fcretim kesintisi anla\u015fmas\u0131nda, anla\u015fmaya y\u00fcksek uyuma ra\u011fmen k\u00fcresel petrol stoklar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6zellikle ABD petrol stoklar\u0131n\u0131 eritme de ne yaz\u0131kki hen\u00fcz istenilen seviyeye ula\u015fm\u0131\u015f de\u011fil. Bunda tabiki s\u00f6z konusu anla\u015fma tarihinden beri artan fiyatlar\u0131n etkisiyle artmakta olan ABD petrol \u00fcretim art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n da etkisi b\u00fcy\u00fck. Ayr\u0131ca, bu s\u00fcre\u00e7te fiyatlar\u0131n daha fazla y\u00fckselmesinde Trump\u2019\u0131n se\u00e7ilmesi ve 2 Fed faiz art\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n etkisiyle g\u00fc\u00e7lenen dolar\u0131n etkisi de var. Fakat, bu s\u00fcre\u00e7te volatilite sadece, Suudi Enerji Bakan\u0131 Khalid\u2019in Mart ay\u0131 ba\u015f\u0131nda IHS CERA\u2019da OPEC ve non OPEC\u2019in anla\u015fmay\u0131 uzatmas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik olarak yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamalar sonucu olu\u015fmu\u015ftu. Bu volatilite zaten piyasan\u0131n s\u00f6z konusu anla\u015fman\u0131n uzat\u0131m\u0131na ne kadar duyarl\u0131 oldu\u011funu g\u00f6stermi\u015fti. Bu ba\u011flamda d\u00fcn yani Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc ba\u015flayan ve gecen aylarda a\u015fa\u011f\u0131da 50 dolar\u0131 test edip a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 k\u0131rd\u0131ktan sonra devam eden d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle Brent petrol bu sabah 46.65 dolara kadar d\u00fc\u015ferek ve ard\u0131ndan h\u0131zl\u0131ca toparlan\u0131p tekrar 49 dolara ula\u015fmas\u0131 ile 25 May\u0131sta yap\u0131lacak OPEC toplant\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n ne kadar \u00f6nemli oldu\u011funu bir kez daha g\u00f6steriyor. Tabiki bu h\u0131zl\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fte \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanan EIA petrol stok verilerinin hala y\u00fcksek seviyelerde olmas\u0131 ayr\u0131ca EIA\u2019n\u0131n ABD petrol \u00fcretiminde art\u0131\u015f\u0131n devam etti\u011fini g\u00f6steren \u00fcretim rakam\u0131n\u0131 yay\u0131nlamas\u0131 ve FED toplat\u0131s\u0131ndan Haziran ay\u0131nda y\u00fcksek ihtimalle bir faiz art\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n daha gelecek olmas\u0131 da etkili oldu. Sonu\u00e7 olarak, fiyatlardaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f ve artan volatilite OPEC toplant\u0131s\u0131ndan anla\u015fman\u0131n 6 ay daha uzat\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 zaruri k\u0131l\u0131yor denebilir. Artan ABD \u00fcretimi nedeniyle fiyat istikrar\u0131 ve \u015fu anki fiyatlardan daha y\u00fcksek hedefleyen OPEC \u015fu anki \u00fcretim kesintisinden bir miktar daha fazla kesinti ile 6 ayl\u0131k uzat\u0131ma kat\u0131lmas\u0131 s\u00fcrpriz olmaz. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc Venezuela gibi ekonomisi zor durumda olan \u00fclkeler OPEC\u2019ten ve tabii ki Suudi Arabistan\u2019dan daha y\u00fcksek fiyatlar i\u00e7in daha fazla \u00fcretim k\u0131s\u0131nt\u0131s\u0131 talep etmesi muhtemel. Anla\u015fman\u0131n uzat\u0131m\u0131 hakk\u0131nda daha az irade beyan eden Rusya\u2019n\u0131n liderli\u011findeki non-OPEC\u2019in ise \u015fu anki kesinti rakamlar\u0131yla 6 ayl\u0131k uzat\u0131ma onay vermesi beklenebilir. 25 May\u0131s\u2019 a kadar Brent fiyatlar 45-50 dolar band\u0131nda hareket edebilir. Uzat\u0131m karar\u0131 sonras\u0131 50 dolar \u00fczerinde tutunabilir. Fakat \u015fu an g\u00f6rece olarak d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck dolar indexi olmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen FED bask\u0131s\u0131 yani dolar index art\u0131\u015f\u0131 g\u00f6lgesinde OPEC ve Non-OPEC uzat\u0131m\u0131 ile \u015fu an i\u00e7in Brent 50 dolar \u00fczerinde tutunabilir, fakat daha fazla \u00fcretim k\u0131s\u0131nt\u0131s\u0131 olmadan 50 dolar \u00fczerinde uzun s\u00fcre tutunmas\u0131 veya hedeflenen 60 dolara ula\u015fmas\u0131 zor g\u00f6z\u00fck\u00fcyor. <\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Haberler<\/b><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Energy Aspects\u2019dan <\/a>Amrita Sen: piyasadaki fundamentallar de\u011fil ama ba\u015fka \u015feyler d\u00fcnki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc sa\u011flad\u0131. Rafinerilerin tadilde olmas\u0131 da talebi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrd\u00fc, dengelenmeyi y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda bekliyoruz. OPEC kesintileri uzatsa da, ilk 6 ayda \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmayan kesintiler, ikinci 6 ayda neden i\u015fe yaras\u0131n. <\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Petrol<\/a> d\u00fcn 5 sebebten d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc: Fibonacci ve hareketli ortalamalar\u0131 arka arkaya k\u0131rd\u0131, gece pani\u011fi: 45$\u2019a kadar destek vard\u0131 dakikada 100 kontrat hacmi 7000\u2019i buldu, <\/span><\/span>uzun pozisyonlar\u0131 k\u0131sa pozisyonlarla dengeleme, 520 milyon varil opsiyon per\u015fembe el de\u011fi\u015ftirdi(negatif gama), kesinti \u00f6ncesine geri d\u00f6n\u00fcld\u00fc<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Ed Morse:<\/a> Bu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f fundamentallardan de\u011fil teknik hareketlerden diyor. Bak\u0131r, demir \u00c7in hikayesi, verileri d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fte etkili oldu. Alt\u0131n Frans\u0131z se\u00e7imlerinden \u00f6nce [sigorta] gibiydi. Ama petrol hareketi teknikten yoksa \u00f6zel bir sebebi yok demeye getirmi\u015f.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

NYT\u2019den<\/a> Bret Stephens\u2019\u0131n ismini daha \u00e7ok duyaca\u011f\u0131z \u201cBeklemeyen sonu\u00e7lar iklimi\u201d yaz\u0131s\u0131nda biyoyak\u0131tlar\u0131na getirdi\u011fi zarar\u0131 anlat\u0131rken, \u201cbir\u015fey yapmal\u0131y\u0131z d\u00fcrt\u00fcs\u00fc ve do\u011fay\u0131 koru bask\u0131lamas\u0131n\u0131n h\u00fck\u00fcmet g\u00fcc\u00fc ve s\u00fcbvansiyonlu sekt\u00f6rlerle yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 zarar\u0131\u201d anlamal\u0131y\u0131z diyor. Emisyon sistemi ETS\u2019nin maliyeti 280 milyar $\u2019m\u0131\u015f.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Ula\u015ft\u0131rmada<\/a> mevcut durum, 2 devrim (2R \u2013 elektrik +otonom) ve 3 devrim (2R+payla\u015f\u0131m) senaryolar\u0131 ile yap\u0131lan \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmada, payla\u015f\u0131ml\u0131 mobilite olmadan di\u011fer ikisi trafi\u011fi k\u00f6t\u00fcle\u015ftirir. <\/span><\/span>3R senaryoda, \u015fehir yolcu ta\u015f\u0131ma enerji talebini %70 azalt\u0131yor, ara\u00e7 ve i\u015fletme maliyetleri %40 azal\u0131yorken y\u0131ll\u0131k kazan\u00e7 5 trilyon $.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Rosneft<\/a> CEO\u2019su, Putin\u2019in <\/span><\/span>deste\u011fi<\/span><\/span> ile rakip \u015firketler<\/span><\/span>i bask\u0131layarak ele ge\u00e7irmekle<\/span><\/span> itham edilmi\u015f bu yaz\u0131da. En son Bashneft\u2019i alan Rosneft, Bashneft hisselerine sahip olan Sistema\u2019ya 1.9 milyar $ tazminat davas\u0131 a\u00e7t\u0131.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Motorlu sistemler,<\/a> imalat sekt\u00f6r\u00fcndeki elektri\u011fin yar\u0131s\u0131ndan fazlas\u0131n\u0131 t\u00fcketiyor. Burada mekanik vites vs kullanmak yerine h\u0131z ve hareketleri elektronik VFD( de\u011fi\u015fken frekansl\u0131 s\u00fcr\u00fcc\u00fc)lerle belirlemek sistemlerin verimlili\u011fini artt\u0131r\u0131r. SiC, silikon karbit tabanl\u0131 VFD\u2019ler ile ilgili raporda 5 y\u0131lda pazar b\u00fcy\u00fcr denmi\u015f.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Japonya\u2019n\u0131n<\/a> Jogmec \u015firketi d\u00fcn a\u00e7\u0131k denizdeki Atsumi ve Shima yar\u0131m adalar\u0131ndaki metan hidrat kuyular\u0131ndan ikincisinde de gaz yakt\u0131. Japonya\u2019n\u0131n do\u011fusundaki Nankai\u2019de 1.1 trilyon m3 metan hidrat\u0131 var, 11 y\u0131ll\u0131k gaz t\u00fcketimi.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Demir cevheri<\/a> bu hafta Singapurda %12 de\u011fer kaybetti. Kas\u0131mdan beri en b\u00fcy\u00fck d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f. Di\u011fer ham maddeler de takip etti. <\/span><\/span>Genelde Bloomberg Emtia endeksine g\u00f6re %0.7 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f oldu. Traderlarda petrole koreleli Norve\u00e7 kronu ve Malezya ringgit\u2019inden Yen\u2019e ge\u00e7i\u015f oldu. Alt\u0131n ise %0.6 artt\u0131. Asya petrol kayb\u0131yla kay\u0131plar\u0131 h\u0131zland\u0131rd\u0131<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Bu\u011fday stoklar\u0131 <\/a>17 y\u0131l\u0131n en y\u00fcksek seviyesinde. ABD\u2019deki kar f\u0131rt\u0131nas\u0131 bu\u011fday fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 yukar\u0131 g\u00f6ndersede k\u00fcresel stoklar rekorda. FAO\u2019nun k\u00fcresel g\u0131da-fiyat endeksi A\u011fustos\u2019tan beri en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyede. Nisan\u2019da bir \u00f6nceki aya g\u00f6re %1.8 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

ABD\u2019deki ilk r\u00fczgar \u00e7iftli\u011fi Block Adas\u0131 R\u00fczgar \u00c7iftli\u011fi,<\/a> adan\u0131n daha \u00f6nceki dizel t\u00fcketimini, ana kara ba\u011flant\u0131s\u0131 ile birlikte azaltm\u0131\u015f. 3,8 milyon litre dizel Trump\u2019un a\u00e7\u0131k deniz arama izninden 3 g\u00fcn sonra son bulmu\u015f<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Nisan\u2019da<\/a> Suudi Arabistan kesintileri s\u00f6z verdi\u011fi 486,000 v\/g\u2019\u00fc de a\u015farak 600,000v\/g\u2019e ula\u015ft\u0131. Fakat y\u00fczen depolarda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f yok, artan deniz trafi\u011fi var.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Grafik<\/b><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Petrolde ini\u015fler ve \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar \u2013 WTI\u2019da 2 g\u00fcnl\u00fck dalgalanma (Investing)<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Bug\u00fcn AA Energy Desk yazarlar\u0131ndan Serdar\u2019\u0131n yorumu a\u015fa\u011f\u0131da. Serdar finansal ve makro taraftan zaman zaman analizlerini sordu\u011fum sekt\u00f6r analistlerinden. D\u00fcn ki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn sebepleri biraz daha netle\u015fti. Anlad\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z kadar\u0131 ile teknik bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, fundamentallardan \u00e7ok da kaynaklanm\u0131yor. D\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fler T\u00fcrkiye saati ile 13:30, 15:00, 18:15, 18:45, 20:00 civar\u0131nda olduktan sonra T\u00fcrkiye saati ile 06:15\u2019de Asya piyasas\u0131nda k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck … Continue reading 5 May\u0131s 2017<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/barissanli.com\/eak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/842"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/barissanli.com\/eak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/barissanli.com\/eak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/barissanli.com\/eak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/barissanli.com\/eak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=842"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/barissanli.com\/eak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/842\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":846,"href":"https:\/\/barissanli.com\/eak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/842\/revisions\/846"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/barissanli.com\/eak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=842"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/barissanli.com\/eak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=842"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/barissanli.com\/eak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=842"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}