A\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki yorum Emin Dan\u0131\u015f’\u0131n haftal\u0131k gaz yorumudur:<\/p>\n
Haftal\u0131k Do\u011falgaz Piyasalar\u0131 G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc<\/b><\/p>\n
Global LNG piyasalar\u0131nda bu hafta genel olarak fiyatlar\u0131n geriledi\u011fini Asya piyasalar\u0131nda spot LNG fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n kay\u0131plar\u0131n\u0131 geni\u015fletti\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc.<\/p>\n
\u00d6nceki yorumlar\u0131m\u0131zda Uluslararas\u0131 piyasalarda \u015eubat ay\u0131ndan itibaren LNG arz\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fclecek art\u0131\u015f\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc olarak bask\u0131layaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6nemle \u00e7izmi\u015ftik. Japonya ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz aylarda so\u011fuklar nedeniyle k\u0131\u015f d\u00f6nemi i\u00e7in y\u00fcksek miktarda al\u0131m yapm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Hava s\u0131cakl\u0131klar\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak talebin tahminlerin alt\u0131nda seyretmesi nedeniyle Japon ithalat\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131n offload kargolara al\u0131c\u0131 aramas\u0131 Mart teslim spot fiyatlar\u0131n kay\u0131plar\u0131n\u0131 geni\u015fletmesine yol a\u00e7\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz haftay\u0131 8.00 $\/mmbtu seviyesinden kapatan mart teslim spot LNG fiyat\u0131 27 Ocak\u2019ta haftay\u0131 haftay\u0131 7.75 $\/mmbtu seviyesinden kapatt\u0131. Nisan teslim fiyatlar ise bu hafta 7 $\/mmbtu seviyelerinden i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc.<\/p>\n
ABD LNG \u0130hracat\u0131 Y\u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc Avrupa\u2019ya \u00c7evirdi<\/b><\/p>\n
ABD\u2019deki konvansiyonel olmayan gaz \u00fcretiminin artmas\u0131yla birlikte kademeli olarak b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00fcretim art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n ya\u015fanmas\u0131 \u00fclkenin LNG ithalat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 konumdan ihracat\u00e7\u0131ya d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fmesini sa\u011flad\u0131. ABD\u2019nin konvansiyonel olmayan gaz \u00fcretimini artt\u0131rmas\u0131 kadar \u00fczerinde en \u00e7ok konu\u015fulan bir di\u011fer konu da ABD LNG ihracat\u0131n\u0131n Avrupa i\u00e7in kurtar\u0131c\u0131 Asya piyasalar\u0131 i\u00e7inse oyun de\u011fi\u015ftirici olup olmayaca\u011f\u0131yd\u0131.<\/p>\n
ABD\u2019den yap\u0131lan ihracat\u0131n nereye gidece\u011fini belirleyen en temel unsur ise ta\u015f\u0131ma maliyetlerinden fiyata ve talebe kadar bir\u00e7ok de\u011fi\u015fkene ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak olu\u015fan marjlar. Asya piyasalar\u0131nda 2011 sonras\u0131 d\u00f6nemde Japonya\u2019n\u0131n artan talebi ile h\u0131zl\u0131 bir \u015fekilde y\u00fckselen ve 2014 y\u0131l\u0131nda 19 $\/mmbtu sevilerine \u00e7\u0131kan fiyatlar\u0131 geride b\u0131rakt\u0131k. LNG arz\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f ve Japonya\u2019n\u0131n N\u00fckleer santralleri a\u00e7ma karar\u0131 almas\u0131 Asya piyasalar\u0131nda fiyatlar\u0131 bask\u0131l\u0131yor. Avrupa\u2019da ise talepteki toparlaman\u0131n devam etmesine ba\u011fl\u0131 LNG ithalat\u0131n\u0131n 2016\u2019y\u0131 art\u0131\u015fla kapatt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rd\u00fck.<\/p>\n
Kesinle\u015fmemi\u015f verilere g\u00f6re ABD\u2019den 2016 y\u0131l\u0131nda yap\u0131lan LNG ihracat\u0131na bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda(re-export dahil) en y\u00fcksek pay\u0131n y\u00fczde 47.8 ile Latin Amerika \u00fclkelerinde oldu\u011funu g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. \u0130kinci s\u0131rada y\u00fczde 29.4 ile Asya gelirken s\u0131ras\u0131yla Orta Do\u011fu y\u00fczde 12.8 ve Avrupa y\u00fczde 10.<\/p>\n
Burada ihra\u00e7 edilen LNG\u2019nin re-export olup olmamas\u0131 ve di\u011fer parametreleri de\u011ferlendirme d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda b\u0131rakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131n alt\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7izmekte fayda var. Burada ihracat\u0131n lokasyonlara g\u00f6re da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131 bize \u00e7ok daha \u00f6nemli bir \u015feyi g\u00f6steriyor. 2016 y\u0131l\u0131nda ABD\u2019nin LNG ihracat\u0131nda beklentilerin aksine a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k Asya ve Avrupa yerine marjlara ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak Latin Amerika \u00fclkeleri oldu.<\/p>\n
Ocak ay\u0131nda Fransa\u2019n\u0131n g\u00fcneyindeki iletim sistemiyle alakal\u0131 sorunlar, so\u011fuklara ba\u011fl\u0131 \u0130spanya ve T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin ilave spot LNG talebi fiyatlar\u0131 y\u00fckseltti\u011fi gibi ABD\u2019den \u00e7\u0131kan kargolar\u0131n Asya\u2019da gev\u015feyen fiyatlar\u0131n da etkisiyle y\u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc Avrupa\u2019ya \u00e7evirmesine neden oldu. ABD \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015fl\u0131 kargolar i\u00e7in Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n \u015eubat ve Mart ay\u0131nda da y\u00fcksek marjlar nedeniyle ihracatta \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kmaya devam edebilece\u011fi de\u011ferlendiriliyor.<\/p>\n
Fransa\u2019da Fiyatlar Geriledi<\/b><\/p>\n
Fransa\u2019n\u0131n G\u00fcneyinde iletim sistemindeki sorun ve y\u00fcksek talep nedeniyle y\u00fckselen fiyatlar 20 Ocak\u2019ta 45 Euro\/MWh\u2019a y\u00fckselerek son 5 y\u0131ldaki en y\u00fcksek seviyeyi g\u00f6rm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. \u015eiddetli so\u011fuklar\u0131n etkisini yitirmesiyle birlikte fiyatlar\u0131n bu hafta geriledi\u011fini g\u00f6rd\u00fck. \u0130spanya ve Fransa\u2019da ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz hafta 9.20 $\/mmbtu olan liman teslim fiyatlar bu hafta 7.55 $\/mmbtu\u2019ya geriledi.<\/p>\n
Ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz haftay\u0131 40 Euro\/MWh\u2019dan kapatan G\u00fcney Fransa Hub kontrat\u0131 bu hafta 30.30 Euro\/MWh\u2019a geriledi. Ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz haftay\u0131 15.12 Euro\/MWh seviyesinden kapatan Kuzey kontrat\u0131 27 Ocak\u2019ta haftay\u0131 9.05 Euro\/MWh\u2019dan kapatt\u0131.<\/p>\n
NBP’de ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz haftay\u0131 6.87 $\/mmbtu seviyesinden kapatan gelecek ay vadeli kontratlar 27 Ocak\u2019ta gerileyerek haftay\u0131 6.47 $\/mmbtu\u2019dan kapatt\u0131.<\/p>\n
Henry Hub’da vadeli ve spot fiyatlarda bu hafta y\u00fckseli\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. Ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz haftay\u0131 3.20 $\/mmbtu seviyesinden kapatan gelecek ay vadeli kontratlar 27 Ocak\u2019ta haftay\u0131 3.39 $\/mmbtu seviyesinden kapatt\u0131. Henry Hub\u2019da ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz haftay\u0131 3.21 $\/mmbtu\u2019dan kapatan spot fiyatlar ise 27 Ocak\u2019ta haftay\u0131 3.29 $\/mmbtu\u2019dan kapatt\u0131.<\/p>\n
TOTAL, GKRY Block 11\u2019de Yaz Ba\u015f\u0131nda Sondaja Ba\u015flayacak<\/b><\/p>\n
Do\u011fu Akdeniz\u2019deki do\u011falgaz rezervleri b\u00f6lge \u00fclkeleri aras\u0131ndaki sorunlar ve gaz\u0131n piyasalara nas\u0131l ula\u015ft\u0131r\u0131laca\u011f\u0131na ili\u015fkin belirsizlikler nedeniyle b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7ekte ticarile\u015ftirilemezken 2015\u2019de M\u0131s\u0131r\u2019\u0131n Zohr sahas\u0131ndaki ke\u015fif b\u00f6lgede kartlar\u0131n tekrar kar\u0131lmas\u0131na neden oldu.<\/p>\n
S\u00fcrecin biraz ba\u015f\u0131na gidelim, Frans\u0131z TOTAL’in 2013 \u015eubat\u0131nda G\u00fcney K\u0131br\u0131s Rum Y\u00f6netiminin S\u00f6zde MEB\u2019de yer alan 10 ve 11. Parseller i\u00e7in arama ve sondaj lisans\u0131 alm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Fakat planlanan sondajlar \u00e7e\u015fitli nedenlerden dolay\u0131 ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirilememi\u015fti ve \u015firket 10. Parseli terk etmi\u015fti. M\u0131s\u0131r\u2019\u0131n Zohr sahas\u0131ndaki dev ke\u015fif bu sahaya 6 km uzakl\u0131kta bulunan 11. Parselin \u00f6nemini olduk\u00e7a artt\u0131rd\u0131.<\/p>\n
Ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz Aral\u0131k ay\u0131nda GKRY 6-8 ve 10. Bloklar\u0131 i\u00e7eren 3. Tur lisans s\u00fcrecini sonu\u00e7land\u0131rm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. 6. Parsel lisans\u0131n\u0131 ENI ve TOTAL ortakl\u0131\u011f\u0131, 8. Parseli ENI ve 10 Parselin lisans\u0131n\u0131 ise Exxon Mobil ve Qatar Petroleum International ortakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 alm\u0131\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n
TOTAL\u2019in MENA b\u00f6lgesi arama-\u00fcretim Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Stephane Michel ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz g\u00fcnlerde \u015firketin 11. Parsel i\u00e7in sondaj karar\u0131 ald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klam\u0131\u015ft\u0131. G\u00fcney K\u0131br\u0131s Enerji Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 ise \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki Haziran-Temmuz aylar\u0131nda \u015firketin 11. Parseldeki sondaja ba\u015flamas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor. 11. Parsel T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin Do\u011fu Akdeniz\u2019deki MEB\u2019i \u00e7ak\u0131\u015fm\u0131yor fakat buradaki parselde ciddi bir rezerv tespit edilmesi durumunda tart\u0131\u015fmal\u0131 di\u011fer sahalar\u0131n sondaj ve olas\u0131 rezerv ke\u015fifleri nedeniyle T\u00fcrkiye\u2019yi GKRY ile yeni bir krizin i\u00e7ine sokabilece\u011fi ihtimali unutulmamal\u0131.<\/p>\n
L\u00fcbnan ilk Offshore \u0130halesindeki Sahalar\u0131 A\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131<\/b><\/p>\n
7 Ocak\u2019taki EAK yorumumda, L\u00fcbnan\u2019daki yeni H\u00fck\u00fcmet taraf\u0131ndan \u00e7\u0131kart\u0131lan 2 kararname ile 2013\u2019den bu yana donan Do\u011fu Akdeniz\u2019deki offshore sahalar\u0131nda petrol ve gaz arama ihale s\u00fcrecini tekrar ba\u015flatma karar\u0131 ile ald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ifade etmi\u015ftik.<\/p>\n
26 Ocak\u2019ta L\u00fcbnan Petrol \u0130daresi taraf\u0131ndan L\u00fcbnan\u2019\u0131n Do\u011fu Akdeniz\u2019deki MEB\u2019i i\u00e7indeki sahalar\u0131 i\u00e7in yapmay\u0131 planlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ilk tur lisans s\u00fcrecinin ayr\u0131nt\u0131lar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131. Buna g\u00f6re ilk turda 1-4-8-9 ve 10. Bloklar i\u00e7in lisans verilecek. \u015eirketler s\u00f6z konusu sahalar i\u00e7in 15 Eyl\u00fcl 2017\u2019ye kadar tekliflerini verecek.<\/p>\n
\u0130kinci \u00f6n eleme turu ise 2 \u015eubat\u2019ta a\u00e7\u0131lacak.<\/p>\n
Beyrut y\u00f6netimi taraf\u0131ndan \u00fclkenin Do\u011fu Akdeniz\u2019deki s\u00f6z konusu sahalarda 2.7 trilyon metrek\u00fcp do\u011falgaz ve 865 milyon varillik petrol rezervi oldu\u011funu tahmin ediliyor.<\/p>\n
\u0130srail, Yunanistan, GKRY ve \u0130talya Enerji Bakanlar\u0131 D. Akdeniz Boru Hatt\u0131 \u0130\u00e7in Bulu\u015facak<\/b><\/p>\n
Do\u011fu Akdeniz\u2019de k\u0131y\u0131s\u0131 olan \u00fclkeler arama ve sondaj \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131na devam ederken ke\u015ffedilen rezervlerin ticarile\u015ftirilmesi ise halen en b\u00fcy\u00fck sorun olarak ortada durmaya devam ediyor. Do\u011falgaz\u0131n denizin alt\u0131ndan d\u00f6\u015fenecek boru hatt\u0131 ile Yunanistan \u00fczerinden Avrupa\u2019ya ula\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 se\u00e7eneklerden bir tanesi.<\/p>\n
Bu ama\u00e7la \u0130srail, Yunanistan, GKRY ve \u0130talya aras\u0131ndaki g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeler ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz hafta Br\u00fcksel\u2019de devam etti. \u0130lgili \u00fclkelerden h\u00fck\u00fcmet yetkililerin y\u00fcr\u00fctt\u00fckleri g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeler \u015eubat ay\u0131nda \u0130srail\u2019de yap\u0131lmas\u0131 planlanan 4 \u00fclkenin enerji bakanlar\u0131n\u0131n kat\u0131laca\u011f\u0131 zirveye haz\u0131rl\u0131k amac\u0131yla ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirildi.<\/p>\n
Hat\u0131rlanaca\u011f\u0131 \u00fczere Yunanistan ve GKRY Do\u011fu Akdeniz do\u011falgaz boru hatt\u0131n\u0131n proje fizibilte \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131 i\u00e7in Avrupa Komisyonu\u2019ndan mali yard\u0131m alm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Proje i\u00e7in \u00f6n m\u00fchendislik ve tasar\u0131m \u00f6ncesi \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n bu y\u0131lsonunda tamamlanmas\u0131 planlan\u0131yor. Yakla\u015f\u0131k uzunlu\u011fu 2000 km olmas\u0131 planlanan boru hatt\u0131n\u0131n toplam maliyeti 5.7 milyar dolar olarak ifade edilse de boru hatt\u0131n\u0131n izleyece\u011fi g\u00fczergah\u0131n tektonik b\u00f6lge olmas\u0131 ve derinlik nedeniyle maliyetin bu rakam\u0131n \u00e7ok daha \u00fczerinde olaca\u011f\u0131 tahmin ediliyor.<\/p>\n
Rusya Federasyon Konseyi T\u00fcrk Ak\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 1 \u015eubat\u2019ta Oylayacak <\/b><\/p>\n
T\u00fcrk Ak\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 anla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz Aral\u0131k ay\u0131nda TBMM\u2019den ge\u00e7mesi ve Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 taraf\u0131ndan imzalanmas\u0131 sonras\u0131 s\u0131ra Rusya\u2019n\u0131n anla\u015fmay\u0131 onaylamas\u0131na gelmi\u015fti. T\u00fcrk Ak\u0131m\u0131 anla\u015fmas\u0131 20 Ocak\u2019ta da Rusya Parlamentosunun alt kanad\u0131 olan Duma\u2019da onaylanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Parlamentosu’nun \u00fcst kanad\u0131 olan Federasyon Konseyi, T\u00fcrk Ak\u0131m\u0131 anla\u015fmas\u0131 ile ilgili yap\u0131lacak oylamay\u0131, 1 \u015eubat’ta ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirilecek oturumun g\u00fcndemine ald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 duyurdu.<\/p>\n
Rusya\u2019n\u0131n da anla\u015fmay\u0131 onaylamas\u0131 proje a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan \u00f6nemli bir kilometre ta\u015f\u0131 olmakla birlikte projenin in\u015faata ba\u015flayabilmesi i\u00e7in devam \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n halen s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc ve Rusya taraf\u0131ndan daha \u00f6nce yap\u0131lan a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131n gerisinde kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Projenin deniz kesimi in\u015faat s\u00f6zle\u015fmesi ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz ay imzalan\u0131rken projede in\u015faat \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n\u0131n en erken 2017\u2019nin \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011finde ba\u015flayabilece\u011fi de\u011ferlendiriliyor.<\/p>\n
Global Energy Research Partners Ara\u015ft\u0131rma ve Strateji Direkt\u00f6r\u00fc Emin Emrah Dan\u0131\u015f \u00a0<\/b><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n @emindanis<\/b><\/span><\/a> & <\/b><\/span><\/span>@edanisenergy<\/b><\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" A\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki yorum Emin Dan\u0131\u015f’\u0131n haftal\u0131k gaz yorumudur: Haftal\u0131k Do\u011falgaz Piyasalar\u0131 G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc Global LNG piyasalar\u0131nda bu hafta genel olarak fiyatlar\u0131n geriledi\u011fini Asya piyasalar\u0131nda spot LNG fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n kay\u0131plar\u0131n\u0131 geni\u015fletti\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. \u00d6nceki yorumlar\u0131m\u0131zda Uluslararas\u0131 piyasalarda \u015eubat ay\u0131ndan itibaren LNG arz\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fclecek art\u0131\u015f\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc olarak bask\u0131layaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6nemle \u00e7izmi\u015ftik. Japonya ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz aylarda so\u011fuklar nedeniyle k\u0131\u015f d\u00f6nemi i\u00e7in … Continue reading 28 Ocak 2017 – Emin Dan\u0131\u015f’\u0131n yorumu<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/barissanli.com\/eak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/441"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/barissanli.com\/eak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/barissanli.com\/eak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/barissanli.com\/eak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/barissanli.com\/eak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=441"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/barissanli.com\/eak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/441\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":442,"href":"https:\/\/barissanli.com\/eak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/441\/revisions\/442"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/barissanli.com\/eak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=441"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/barissanli.com\/eak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=441"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/barissanli.com\/eak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=441"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}