{"id":358,"date":"2017-01-13T15:13:56","date_gmt":"2017-01-13T15:13:56","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/barissanli.com\/eak\/?p=358"},"modified":"2017-01-13T15:13:56","modified_gmt":"2017-01-13T15:13:56","slug":"13-ocak-2017","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/barissanli.com\/eak\/2017\/01\/13-ocak-2017\/","title":{"rendered":"13 Ocak 2017"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u0130ktisatda bir\u015feyler oluyor. Romer<\/a>, Makroekonomikteki problem yaz\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 yazm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. \u015eimdi de Robert Shiller, anlat\u0131 ekonomisi<\/a> diye (narrative economics bir konu\u015fma yapm\u0131\u015f. Metnindeki petrol \u00f6rne\u011fi a\u015fa\u011f\u0131da. Oxford Energy\u2019nin \u0130ran raporu \u00f6zeti okumaya de\u011fer, \u00f6zeti var. IRM sekt\u00f6rel risklerde bilmediklerimi \u00f6zetlemeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131m. Bug\u00fcn okunmas\u0131 gereken tek yaz\u0131, FT\u2019nin \u00c7in\u2019in ticari deniz liman ve g\u00fczergahlar\u0131ndaki dominasyonunu anlatan inceleme yaz\u0131s\u0131. Tek ge\u00e7erim. Frans\u0131zlarda da n\u00fckleer devreden \u00e7\u0131k\u0131nca EDF alarm verdi, \u015eubat gaz fiyatlar\u0131 Asya LNG\u2019sini ge\u00e7ti. Ak\u015fam Shiller\u2019in<\/a> makalesini ve haftasonu da Atlantic Council\u2019in<\/a> enerji forum videolar\u0131n\u0131 izlemek iyi fikir olabilir.<\/p>\n

Bilgiler<\/b><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Frans\u0131z<\/a> gaz piyasas\u0131nda TRS \u015eubat gaz kontratlar\u0131 10.39$\/mmbtu\u2019ya ula\u015farak, Kuzeydo\u011fu Asya spot LNG fiyat\u0131 9.43$\/mmbtu\u2019nun da \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. \u0130spanya\u2019da asyan\u0131n \u00fczerinde 10.31$\/mmbtu. Sebebi Frans\u0131z n\u00fckleer santrallerinin devre d\u0131\u015f\u0131 olmas\u0131 ve so\u011fuklar<\/p>\n

Robert Shiller, anlat\u0131 ekonomisi<\/a> konu\u015fmas\u0131nda, petrolden bir \u00f6rnek veriyor.1919 ortas\u0131ndan 1920lerin sonuna do\u011fru ABD depresyonun tam ortas\u0131nda, fakat petrol fiyatlar\u0131 da \u00e7ok y\u00fcksek. Anlat\u0131:\u201dBug\u00fcn yar\u0131n petrol bitebilir\u201d. Shiller:\u201dbu tip hikayeler ekonomi \u00fczerinde belirsizlik olu\u015fturup hane halk\u0131 harcamalar\u0131n\u0131 ve istihdam kararlar\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcyor\u201d<\/p>\n

D\u00fcnyadaki en b\u00fcy\u00fck 10 konteyner liman\u0131ndan 5\u2019i ana kara \u00c7in\u2019de<\/a> di\u011feri de Hong Kong\u2019da. 2010\u2019dan bu yana \u00c7inli \u015firketler toplam de\u011feri 45.6 M$ olan 40 liman projesi tamamlad\u0131 veya a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. \u00c7in resmi raporundan \u201c\u00c7in donanmas\u0131 deniz ula\u015ft\u0131rma g\u00fcvenli\u011fi ve deniza\u015f\u0131r\u0131 \u00e7\u0131karlar\u0131 korumal\u0131\u201d. Enerji darge\u00e7i\u015flerinde \u00f6zellikle ticari liman i\u015fine girilmi\u015f.<\/p>\n

Britanya<\/a> adas\u0131ndaki elektrik son 60 y\u0131l\u0131n en temizi olmu\u015f, 2016 bu y\u00fczden d\u00f6n\u00fcm noktas\u0131. 2012\u2019de %40\u2019\u0131 k\u00f6m\u00fcrden olan elektrikte, k\u00f6m\u00fcr oran\u0131 2016\u2019da %10\u2019dan a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015fm\u00fc\u015f. \u201cK\u00f6m\u00fcr \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u201d son 100 y\u0131l\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fc\u011f\u00fc. Bir\u015feye dikkat edin, BP\u2019nin iddia etti\u011finin aksine bir kaynaktan vazge\u00e7me \u00e7ok h\u0131zl\u0131 olmu\u015f, \u201cdo\u011fal h\u0131z\u201d felen dinlememi\u015f.<\/p>\n

Elektrik fiyatlar\u0131 Polonya ve Fransa\u2019da tekrar art\u0131\u015f e\u011filiminde. www.energytransparency.info<\/a> \u2018da kas\u0131m ay\u0131nda Almanya dahil \u00fc\u00e7 \u00fclkenin enerji fiyat hareketleri ilgin\u00e7.<\/p>\n

PDVSA<\/a> son 23 y\u0131l\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck \u00fcretim rakamlar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6recek:2.5 mv\/g. \u00c7in\u2019e 50 milyar $ borcu olan Venez\u00fcella\u2019n\u0131n \u00c7in\u2019e ihracat\u0131n\u0131 550,000 v\/g\u2019e \u00e7\u0131karmas\u0131 bekleniyor. 2015\u2019te 627,000 v\/g\u2019den 2016\u2019da 355,000 v\/g\u2019e Venez\u00fcella\u2019n\u0131n iste\u011fi ile d\u00fc\u015fm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. A\u011f\u0131r petrol\u00fcn\u00fc pa\u00e7allamak i\u00e7in 125bin v\/g hafif petrol ihra\u00e7 edecek, hala 217binv\/g hafif petrol a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 var<\/p>\n

John Kemp\u2019in Petrol g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm anketine<\/a> g\u00f6re 2017 ortalama fiyat beklentisi 55-60$\/v, 2018 60-65$\/v, 2019 65 $\/v, 2020 65-70 $\/v, 2021 70 $\/v. 2017\u2019de 100$ bekleyen 1 ki\u015fi, 2019\u2019da 10 ki\u015fi var.<\/p>\n

2017\u2019de de\u011fi\u015fik sekt\u00f6rel riskler<\/a>. Asya Pasifikte siber riskler art\u0131yor. Afrikada internet ve sosyal medya kullan\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n h\u0131zla artmas\u0131 ile daha \u00f6nce bilmedi\u011fimiz politik liderler \u00e7\u0131kabilir. \u0130ngiltere\u2019de en ya\u011f\u0131\u015fl\u0131 5 y\u0131l\u0131n 4\u2019\u00fc 2000 y\u0131l\u0131ndan bu yana g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015f. Petrol fiyat\u0131 kaynakl\u0131 sosyal ve ekonomik problemler, siber risk.<\/p>\n

Endonezya<\/a> 5 y\u0131ll\u0131k \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn ard\u0131ndan tekrar k\u00f6m\u00fcr \u00fcretimini artt\u0131racak. D\u00fcnyan\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck k\u00f6m\u00fcr ihracat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131, 489 milyon ton bu sene \u00fcretti. H\u00fck\u00fcmet hedeflerinin %18 \u00fcst\u00fcnde. \u00c7in\u2019in tedarik fazlas\u0131n\u0131 azaltmak i\u00e7in \u00fcretimi k\u0131smas\u0131, bir anda kimsenin beklemedi\u011fi fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 getirdi. \u00dcretimin %25\u2019i i\u00e7erde t\u00fcketiliyor. 2015\u2019te %19\u2019uydu.<\/p>\n

Fransa\u2019da<\/a> gelen so\u011fuk hava dalgas\u0131na, n\u00fckleer santraller \u00e7al\u0131\u015fm\u0131yorken yakalanma ihtimali ile EDF alarm durumuna ge\u00e7ti<\/p>\n

Rapor \u00d6zeti<\/b><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

\u0130ran\u2019\u0131n Enerjisi : Engeller i\u00e7inde bir Geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f<\/b><\/span> , David Ramin Jalilvand , Oxford Energy Institute<\/p>\n

(https:\/\/www.oxfordenergy.org\/wpcms\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/01\/Iranian-Energy-a-comeback-with-hurdles.pdf<\/a>)<\/p>\n

A\u015fa\u011f\u0131da rapordaki \u00f6nemli noktalar\u0131n h\u0131zl\u0131 bir \u00f6zeti yer almaktad\u0131r:<\/p>\n

<\/a> Bir sene \u00f6nce 16 Ocak 2016\u2019da \u0130ran n\u00fckleer anla\u015fmas\u0131 devreye girdi. Resmi ad\u0131 JCPOA( Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action) asl\u0131nda Temmuz 2015\u2019te tamamland\u0131. JCPOA ard\u0131ndan enerji \u015firketleri \u0130ran\u2019la i\u015fbirli\u011fi i\u00e7in harekete ge\u00e7ti. Raporda anla\u015fman\u0131n enerji sekt\u00f6r\u00fcne etkileri inceleniyor. \u0130ran h\u00fck\u00fcmeti, i\u00e7eride bir \u00e7ok \u00e7arp\u0131\u015fan g\u00fc\u00e7 oda\u011f\u0131 aras\u0131nda denge kurmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131rken, uluslar aras\u0131 ortamda da risklerini y\u00f6netmeyi deniyor. \u00dcretim hala resmi 4.0mv\/g rakam\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131nda. JCPOA kriti\u011fi Trump\u2019un se\u00e7ilmesinden sonra belirsizlik artt\u0131. \u201cDavos vizyonu tabana yay\u0131lan bir ekonomik d\u00fczelme sa\u011flamad\u0131<\/a>\u201d. K\u00fcreselle\u015fme fuar\u0131 Davos\u2019un sonu mu geldi yaz\u0131s\u0131 da fikir \u00e7\u0131rp\u0131c\u0131.<\/p>\n

Son durum: Yapt\u0131r\u0131m \u00f6ncesi duruma d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f<\/b><\/p>\n

JCPOA \u00f6ncesi yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar, BM, ABD ve AB ile, Amerikan ve Avrupa yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 engelleme, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131 SWIFT bankac\u0131l\u0131k a\u011f\u0131ndan \u00e7\u0131karma, ve Avrupal\u0131 banka ve sigorta \u015firketlerini \u0130ranla i\u015f yapmaktan durdurma sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 vermi\u015fti. \u00dcretim 2011\u2019deki 3.7 mv\/g\u2019den, 2014\u2019te 2.7 mv\/g\u2019ye d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc.\u0130ran do\u011falgaz \u00fcretimi artt\u0131rsa da en son LNG teknolojilerine eri\u015fimi kalmad\u0131.<\/p>\n

\u0130ran\u2019da \u201cdireni\u015f ekonomisi\u201d \u015femsiyesi alt\u0131nda bir grup kar\u015f\u0131 politikalar ba\u015flatt\u0131. Avrupal\u0131 IOC(uluslar aras\u0131 petrol \u015firketlerinin) bo\u015flu\u011funu IRGC(devrim muhaf\u0131zlar\u0131) ile ili\u015fkili \u0130ranl\u0131 \u015firketler doldurmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131. IRGC 2010\u2019da sekt\u00f6re girdi\u011finde tecr\u00fcbesi yoktu ama ya\u015fl\u0131 sahalarda \u00fcretimi devam ettirmeye ve gaz sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fc b\u00fcy\u00fctmeyi ba\u015fard\u0131. \u0130lerlemeye ra\u011fmen \u0130ran d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc durduramad\u0131.<\/p>\n

Ocak 2016 sonras\u0131, AB ve BM yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 sonland\u0131rd\u0131. ABD ikincil yapt\u0131r\u0131mlara son verdi. Yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar kald\u0131 ama zorla uygulatt\u0131rma olmad\u0131. ABD\u2019nin insan haklar\u0131 ve ter\u00f6re destek kapsam\u0131ndaki birincil yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 kald\u0131<\/p>\n

JCPOA sonras\u0131 iran enerji sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde ithalat ve yat\u0131r\u0131m konusunda engel kalmad\u0131. Avrupal\u0131 IOC\u2019\u2019ler \u00fclkeye geri geldi. Bankalar sigorta \u015firketleri i\u015flem yapabiliyor. Fakat yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n tekrar uygulanmas\u0131, ABD kanunlar\u0131n\u0131n s\u0131n\u0131rlar d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda da uygulanmas\u0131 (Ge\u00e7mi\u015fte \u0130ran\u2019la i\u015f yapan Avrupal\u0131 bankalar 13 milyar $ ceza ald\u0131) ve olmas\u0131 muhtemel yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar ihtimal dahilinde. Ama JCPOA uluslar aras\u0131 i\u015fbirli\u011fine kap\u0131 a\u00e7t\u0131.<\/p>\n

Schlumberger(ABD-Hollanda), Shell, CNPC, French Total, Wintershall(alman), Saipem(\u0130talyan), Inpex(Japon), DNO(Norve\u00e7li) ve Gazprom gibi \u015firketler mutabakat zapt\u0131 (MoU) ile \u00fclkeye geldiler. Ama \u015fu ana kadar bir kontrat imzalanmad\u0131. MoU\u2019lar daha \u00e7ok saha \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131. Sadece NIOC, Total, CNPC kontrat sonland\u0131rmaya \u201cheads of agreement\u201d imzalayarak yakla\u015ft\u0131. Ba\u015fka ger\u00e7ek s\u00f6zle\u015fme yok. JCPOA \u0130ran Enerji kapasitesini artt\u0131rmad\u0131.<\/p>\n

\u0130lerleme yapt\u0131r\u0131m \u00f6ncesi petrol \u00fcretimine ve ihracat\u0131na d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f \u015feklinde oldu.<\/p>\n

Yerel G\u00fc\u00e7 Oyunu: Dengeyi Bulmak<\/b><\/p>\n

Basit\u00e7e \u00fclkede 2 b\u00fcy\u00fck grup var. Ba\u015fkan Hasan Ruhani ve \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 h\u00fck\u00fcmeti, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131 tekrar uluslar aras\u0131 toplulu\u011fa entegre etmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yor. Uluslar aras\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lerle kap\u0131\u015fma, Ahmetdinejat d\u00f6neminde ba\u015flayan, ne Cumhuriyete ne de ekonomik potansiyeline fayda getirmedi. 2013 se\u00e7imlerinde Ruhani n\u00fckleer anla\u015fma ve ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcme s\u00f6z\u00fc verdi. Muhafazakar kesimde ise Ayetullah Ali Hamaney ve IRGC(devrim muhaf\u0131zlar\u0131) var. Uluslar aras\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lerin \u00f6nyarg\u0131l\u0131 olarak \u0130ran\u2019a d\u00fc\u015fman oldu\u011funu savunarak, uluslar aras\u0131 i\u015fbirli\u011finin k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131\u011fa yol a\u00e7aca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 iddia ediyorlar. Bu gruba g\u00f6re direni\u015f ekonomisi geni\u015fletilmeli ve uluslarars\u0131 i\u015fbirli\u011fi s\u0131n\u0131rland\u0131r\u0131lmal\u0131<\/p>\n

Ruhani ekibi \u00fclkenin JCPOA\u2019dan avantaj kazanaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6stermek isterken, muhafazakarlar, \u00f6zellikle IRGC ile ili\u015fkili birimler yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar sayesinde, uluslar aras\u0131 rekabet olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in, ekonomik ve politik olarak olumlu etkilendiler. E\u011fer ekonomik pozisyonu zarar g\u00f6rmez ise, bu grup JCPOA temelli ekonomik i\u015fbirli\u011fini tan\u0131r.<\/p>\n

Geleneksel olarak NIOC (\u0130ran ulusal petrol \u015firketi) ve ta\u015feronlar\u0131 \u0130ran enerji sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn i\u015flemesinden sorumluydu. NIOC\u2019da Petrol bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131na, o da H\u00fck\u00fcmete ba\u011fl\u0131 idi. Ahmedinejad(kendisi eski bir IRGC \u00fcyesi) d\u00f6neminde IRGC enerji sekt\u00f6r\u00fcne girdi. 2011\u2019de ba\u015fkan Ahmedinejad, IRGC\u2019nin ticari devi Khatam-al Anbiya\u2019n\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131 Rostam Ghasemi\u2019yi petrol bakan\u0131 olarak g\u00f6revlendirdi. H\u00fck\u00fcmet deste\u011fi ile IRGC bat\u0131l\u0131 petrol \u015firketlerinin bo\u015flu\u011funu doldurmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n

2013\u2019te Ruhani ba\u015fkan oldu\u011funda IRGC enerji sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir oyuncuydu. Ruhani Ghasemi\u2019yi de\u011fi\u015ftirerek, deneyimli ve teknoktratik, 1997-2005 y\u0131llar\u0131 aras\u0131nda petrol bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131, 1988-1997 aras\u0131 enerji bakank\u0131\u011f\u0131 yapm\u0131\u015f olan Bican Zanganeh\u2019i getirdi.\u0130ran petrol kontrat\u0131 (IPC) ile Ruhani IOC\u2019lere daha fazla ticari cezbedici \u015fartlar sunmay\u0131 istese de IPC parlamento ve \u00fcst lider kontrol\u00fcndeki Muhaf\u0131zlar konseyi onay\u0131 almas\u0131 gerekiyor. Ruhani ve Zanganeh bir denge bulmak zorundayd\u0131. Politik ve i\u015f faydalar\u0131n\u0131n yan\u0131nda, muhafazakar ekip ve IRGC\u2019de yer bulmal\u0131yd\u0131.<\/p>\n

Eyl\u00fcl 2016\u2019da imzalanan IPC bu amaca matufdu. IPC, geri al\u0131ma g\u00f6re, rezerv rezervasyonu i\u00e7erirken, bedel \u00f6demesi daha esnek, sadece nakit de\u011fil fiziksel varille de \u00f6deme yap\u0131labilir. Rezervlerin yabanc\u0131 sahipli\u011fine izin verilmiyor. Ayr\u0131ca \u0130ranli i\u015fletmelerin \u0130ran petrol ve do\u011falgaz\u0131nda do\u011frudan yer almas\u0131n\u0131\u0131 sa\u011fl\u0131yor. IPC uluslar aras\u0131 i\u015fbirli\u011fi ile direni\u015f ekonomisi ajandalar\u0131 aras\u0131nda bir birliktelik sa\u011fl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

Ocak 2017 itibari ile tek bir kapsay\u0131c\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131m yerine her bir anla\u015fma ayr\u0131 m\u00fczakere edilecek.<\/p>\n

Petrol Bakan\u0131 Zanganeh, IRGC \u015firketi Khatam-al Anbiya\u2019n\u0131n IPC\u2019de \u00f6nemli bir pozisyonunun olaca\u011f\u0131 ve yeni petrol kontratlar\u0131n\u0131n yar\u0131s\u0131ndan fazlas\u0131n\u0131n \u0130ranl\u0131 \u015firketlere verilece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi<\/p>\n

\u0130lk IPC kontrat\u0131 da muhafazakarlara yak\u0131n POGIDC(Persia Oil and Gas Industry Development Company)\u2019ye verildi. Ekim 2016\u2019da NIOC, 4 petrol sahasi i\u00e7in POGIDC ile anla\u015fma imzalad\u0131. POGIDC, Hamaney taraf\u0131ndan denetlenen Setade Ejraye Farmane Emam \u015firketinin alt \u015firketi.<\/p>\n

Haziran 2016\u2019da petrol bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 IPC kapsam\u0131nda uluslar aras\u0131 i\u015fbirli\u011fi i\u00e7in ba\u015fvurma hakk\u0131 olan 8 \u015firketi yay\u0131nlad\u0131. Bu \u015firketlerin 3\u2019\u00fc do\u011frudan muhafazakarlar ve\/veya IRGC ile ba\u011fl\u0131. Muhafazakarlar\u0131 da katarak Ruhani IPC\u2019yi ilerletiyor. Etkin olarak \u015firketleri Petrol bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 onaylayaca\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in \u0130ran enerji sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn kap\u0131 muhaf\u0131z\u0131 h\u00fck\u00fcmet.<\/p>\n

Uluslar aras\u0131 \u0130\u015fbirli\u011fi : \u0130ddialar\u0131 y\u00f6netmek<\/b><\/p>\n

Uluslarars\u0131 i\u015fbirli\u011finde de durum farkl\u0131 de\u011fil. Ruhani h\u00fck\u00fcmeti \u00e7oklu \u00e7\u0131karlar\u0131 dengelemeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

\u0130ran\u2019\u0131n, petrol bakan\u0131n\u0131n belirtti\u011fi gibi 100 milyar $ veya daha fazla yard\u0131ma ihtiyac\u0131 olabilir. JCPOA\u2019dan bu yana \u0130ran AB\u2019den bir \u00e7ok \u00fcst d\u00fczey politikac\u0131 ve i\u015f adam\u0131n\u0131n ziyaretini g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Airbus, Boeing, Peugeot-Citroen, Renault, Siemens gibi y\u00fcksek profilli anla\u015fmalar imzaland\u0131.<\/p>\n

\u0130ran\u2019a uluslar aras\u0131 olarak da enerjide yo\u011fun ilgi vard\u0131. Ama hi\u00e7bir kontrat neticelenmedi. Buna ra\u011fmen \u0130ran anla\u015fmalar\u0131 finalize etmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

\u0130ran\u0131n\u0131n uluslar aras\u0131 i\u015fbirli\u011fine yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131 i\u015fbirliklerini da\u011f\u0131tma iste\u011fi \u00fczerine kurulu: \u0130ran t\u00fcm yumurtalar\u0131n\u0131 ayn\u0131 sepete koymuyor. Sadece Avrupal\u0131 IOC yerine do\u011fu ve bat\u0131dan \u015firketlerle g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor. NIOC\u2019den izin alan \u015firketlerin yar\u0131s\u0131ndan fazlas\u0131 Rus veya Asyal\u0131<\/p>\n

Tecr\u00fcbeye g\u00f6re AB yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131, 2010 ba\u015f\u0131ndan \u0130ran enerji sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fc vurdu. \u00c7in \u00f6zellikle \u00fclkede kald\u0131, ama \u00c7inli \u015firketlerin zay\u0131f performanslar\u0131na dair \u015fikayetler \u0130ran\u2019da geni\u015f \u015fekilde duyuldu. Yine de \u0130ran enerji sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn ayakta kalmas\u0131nda Asyal\u0131 \u015firketlerin de katk\u0131s\u0131 oldu. Bu \u015firketleri davet ederek, \u0130ran yapt\u0131r\u0131m y\u0131llar\u0131ndaki desteklerini onurland\u0131r\u0131yor. Nisan 2015\u2019te Pekin\u2019e ziyarette Bakan Zanganeh, \u00c7in\u2019in verdi\u011fi deste\u011fe ve i\u015fbirli\u011fi niyetlerinin alt\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7izdi<\/p>\n

\u00c7in ve Rus \u015firketlerinin yer almas\u0131 te\u015fekk\u00fcr\u00fcn \u00f6tesinde, bu \u015firketler devlet \u015firketleri. Bu \u015firketlerin \u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7arak \u0130ran \u00fclkelerin h\u00fck\u00fcmetleri ile ili\u015fkileri de derinle\u015ftiriyor. Pekin ve Moskova ile derinle\u015fen politik ve ekonomik ili\u015fkiler, AB\u2019ye tek ba\u015f\u0131na ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131\u011fa kar\u015f\u0131 da koruyor.Ama Trump ile ABD-\u0130ran ili\u015fkilerinin gelece\u011fi bilinmiyor. K\u00f6t\u00fc senaryoda ABD JCPOA\u2019dan \u00e7ekilebilir. Her durumda \u00c7in, Rusya ili\u015fkileri daha az etkilenir<\/p>\n

K\u0131saca \u0130ran sadece i\u015f ili\u015fkilerini de\u011fil jeopolitik mant\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 da hesaplar\u0131na yans\u0131t\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

\u0130ran sembolik ba\u015far\u0131lar pe\u015finde de ko\u015fuyor. Ruhani May\u0131s 2017\u2019de tekrar se\u00e7ilmeyi istiyor. Ruhani \u015fimdi 2013 y\u0131l\u0131ndaki vaatlerinden ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi de sa\u011flamak zorunda.<\/p>\n

Enerji sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde, \u0130ran Pazar pay\u0131n\u0131 gelir beklentisinin \u00fczerinde tutuyor. \u0130ran\u2019da petrol gelirlerinin pay\u0131 GDP ve h\u00fck\u00fcmet b\u00fct\u00e7esinde daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck, di\u011ferlerine g\u00f6re daha iyi pozisyonda, ayr\u0131ca daha \u00f6nceden bloklanm\u0131\u015f milyarlarca $\u2019a eri\u015fimi var.<\/p>\n

\u0130ran\u2019\u0131n OPEC anla\u015fmas\u0131 harici tutulmas\u0131 da co\u015fkuyla kutland\u0131, \u0130ran\u2019da OPEC anla\u015fmas\u0131 \u201cpetrol JCPOA\u201d s\u0131 olarak bile adland\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131. \u0130ran hakl\u0131 olarak k\u00fcresel enerji i\u015finde oldu\u011funu g\u00f6sterdi. \u0130ran d\u00fcnyan\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck petrol ve gaz rezervlerine sahip (%13 d\u00fcnya toplam\u0131), ama k\u00fcresel \u00fcretimin sadece %4.7<\/p>\n

Engelli bir Geri D\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f : Gelece\u011fe giden yol<\/b><\/p>\n

\u0130ran yumurtalar\u0131n\u0131 farkl\u0131 sepetlere koyarak, gelecekteki potansiyel bat\u0131 ile problemlere kar\u015f\u0131 elini korumaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yor. \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n bir \u00e7ok sahas\u0131 ya\u015fl\u0131 ve geli\u015fmi\u015f petrol geri kazan\u0131m tekniklerine ihtiya\u00e7 duyuyor.<\/p>\n

\u0130ran\u2019\u0131n d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fc baz\u0131 engellerle de y\u00fczle\u015fiyor, politik ve ekonomik belirsizlik art\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

Yerelde, IPC\u2019nin nihai tasar\u0131m\u0131 ilk IOC kontrat\u0131 imzalanana kadar belirsiz. O zaman Ruhani\u2019nin denge politikas\u0131n\u0131n ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rece\u011fiz. IRGC\u2019nin olmas\u0131 ise uluslar aras\u0131 olarak baz\u0131 \u015f\u00fcpheler do\u011furuyor. IOC ile i\u015fbirli\u011fini bozmadan IRGC\u2019nin enerji sekt\u00f6r\u00fcndeki pay\u0131n\u0131 koruman\u0131n bir yolunu, h\u00fck\u00fcmet, bulmak zorunda kalacak. IOC ve IRGC\u2019nin durumu net olarak ayr\u0131lmal\u0131<\/p>\n

Son olarak, ABD\u2019nin yeni ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump\u2019un da belirsizli\u011fi etkili. Se\u00e7im \u00f6nce ve sonras\u0131 Trump JCPOA\u2019y\u0131 tasvip etmed\u011fini belirtti.<\/p>\n

\u0130ran\u2019da May\u0131s\u2019ta se\u00e7imler var. Ruhani\u2019nin ko\u0131ltu\u011funu koruyup koruyamaca\u011f\u0131 belli olacak. IOC\u2019ler ile anla\u015fmalar\u0131 tamamlamak, JCPOA\u2019n\u0131n faydalar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6stermek ad\u0131na, bu amaca hizmet edecektir.<\/p>\n

Grafik<\/b><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

FT<\/a>, \u00c7in\u2019in k\u00fcresel ticari liman yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

D\u00fcnyan\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck liman i\u015fletmecileri (FT<\/a>)<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

D\u00fcnyan\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck konteyner gemi i\u015fletmecileri (FT<\/a>)<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

D\u00fcnya konteyner trafi\u011finin 3te 2si, \u00c7inliler taraf\u0131ndan kontrol edilen veya yat\u0131r\u0131m yap\u0131lan limanlardan ge\u00e7iyor (FT<\/a>)<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Yabanc\u0131 Limanlardaki \u00c7in yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 (FT<\/a>)<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

\u00c7in d\u00fcnyan\u0131n en h\u0131zl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcyen donanmas\u0131(FT<\/a>)<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u0130ktisatda bir\u015feyler oluyor. Romer, Makroekonomikteki problem yaz\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 yazm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. \u015eimdi de Robert Shiller, anlat\u0131 ekonomisi diye (narrative economics bir konu\u015fma yapm\u0131\u015f. Metnindeki petrol \u00f6rne\u011fi a\u015fa\u011f\u0131da. Oxford Energy\u2019nin \u0130ran raporu \u00f6zeti okumaya de\u011fer, \u00f6zeti var. IRM sekt\u00f6rel risklerde bilmediklerimi \u00f6zetlemeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131m. Bug\u00fcn okunmas\u0131 gereken tek yaz\u0131, FT\u2019nin \u00c7in\u2019in ticari deniz liman ve g\u00fczergahlar\u0131ndaki dominasyonunu anlatan inceleme yaz\u0131s\u0131. … Continue reading 13 Ocak 2017<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/barissanli.com\/eak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/358"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/barissanli.com\/eak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/barissanli.com\/eak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/barissanli.com\/eak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/barissanli.com\/eak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=358"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/barissanli.com\/eak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/358\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":365,"href":"https:\/\/barissanli.com\/eak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/358\/revisions\/365"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/barissanli.com\/eak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=358"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/barissanli.com\/eak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=358"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/barissanli.com\/eak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=358"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}