{"id":3499,"date":"2023-01-16T10:19:27","date_gmt":"2023-01-16T10:19:27","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/barissanli.com\/eak\/?p=3499"},"modified":"2023-01-16T18:24:40","modified_gmt":"2023-01-16T18:24:40","slug":"16-ocak-2023-avrupada-sanayinin-gaz-talebi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/barissanli.com\/eak\/2023\/01\/16-ocak-2023-avrupada-sanayinin-gaz-talebi\/","title":{"rendered":"16 Ocak 2023 – Avrupa’da Sanayi’nin Gaz Talebi"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
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Avrupa gaz talebinde, son 5 y\u0131la g\u00f6re 2022’de %20 sanayi taraf\u0131nda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f var. Sadece Q4’te d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f %30. Bu da g\u00fcnl\u00fck 100 mcm’lik bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f demek. (Ref<\/a>)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Peki petrol fiyatlar\u0131 y\u00fcksek mi? (Ref<\/a>) Artan enflasyondan dolay\u0131 petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe ge\u00e7ti\u011fini g\u00f6steren bir grafik:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Enflasyon d\u00fczeltmeli petrol fiyat\u0131<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Avrupa’da k\u00f6m\u00fcr t\u00fcketimi artarken, gaz fiyat\u0131 ve karbon fiyat\u0131 da d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor. (Ref<\/a>)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bir di\u011fer konu ise ARA b\u00f6lgesindeki \u0131rmaklar\u0131n derinli\u011fi ile dizel talebi aras\u0131ndaki ilgin\u00e7 ili\u015fki. Bu k\u00f6m\u00fcr ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, n\u00fckleer santral \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 da etkiliyor. 2022’te her nekadar A\u011fustos aylar\u0131nda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f olsa da, as\u0131l dip seviye Kas\u0131m-Aral\u0131k’ta oluyormu\u015f. (Ref: OilX<\/a>)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00c7in’de Bahar Festivali \u00f6ncesi, 2021’e g\u00f6re i\u00e7 u\u00e7u\u015flarda %57 art\u0131\u015f ba\u015flad\u0131. 2019’un %80 seviyesinde. (Ref<\/a>)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\u00c7in’de artan u\u00e7u\u015flar<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Almanya’n\u0131n enerji maliyetlerini kontrol alt\u0131nda tutmak i\u00e7in sanayi fiyatlar\u0131 ile a\u00e7\u0131k deniz r\u00fczgardan elektrik \u00fcretim maliyetlerini ba\u011flamaya <\/a>\u00e7al\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 ilgin\u00e7. Almanya’n\u0131n gelecek sene i\u00e7in elektrik fiyatlar\u0131 toptan da 195\u20ac\/MWh. Daha \u00f6nce bu rakam 1050\u20ac\/MWh’a kadar \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015ft\u0131. 2019’da devreye giren projeler 70-120 \u20ac\/MWh fiyat g\u00f6rm\u00fc\u015f. (Adelphi). 2025’te 50-70\u20ac\/MWh’a d\u00fc\u015fecekmi\u015f<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Avrupa gaz stok seviyeleri (REF<\/a>)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

JP Morgan’\u0131n 2023 tahminleri: <\/p>\n\n\n\n

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<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Video : 3 Faz elektri\u011fin tarihi<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bu videoda<\/a> ismini pek bilmedi\u011fimiz Mikhail Dolivo-Dobrovolsky’nin maceras\u0131n\u0131 da izleyebilirsiniz. \u00dc\u00e7 faz asl\u0131nda AC motor geli\u015ftirilmesinin sonucu. Matematik bir temeli de var.Bir tarafta 6 kablo, bir tarafta 3 kablo<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Financial Times’dan<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Katar’\u0131n COP28 ba\u015fkan\u0131 Sultan al-Jaber,<\/a> yenilenebilir kurulu g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fcn 2030’da 2021’in 3 misline \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 istedi. IEA’e g\u00f6re net s\u0131f\u0131r i\u00e7in 4 misli daha fazla eklemek gerekiyor. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Almanya’da RWE’n\u00fcn k\u00f6m\u00fcr madeni geni\u015fletmesinde L\u00fctzerath kasabas\u0131n\u0131n<\/a> y\u0131k\u0131lmas\u0131 Ye\u015filler ve gen\u00e7ler aras\u0131nda ayr\u0131ma yol a\u00e7\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

ABD’de, HDD – heating degree days, yani \u0131s\u0131tma derece fark\u0131 ile g\u00fcn say\u0131s\u0131 \u00e7arp\u0131m\u0131 Ocak’ta ge\u00e7en y\u0131llara g\u00f6re %25 daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fckm\u00fc\u015f. ABD gaz talebi rekor d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck <\/a>seviyeleri g\u00f6rebilir. Gaz \u00fcreticilerinin ise bu ay 101 bcf (3 milyar m3\/g\u00fcn) rekor y\u00fcksek gaz \u00fcretmesi bekleniyor. S\u0131cakl\u0131klar\u0131n Mart’a kadar s\u0131cak kalmas\u0131 bekleniyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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<\/p>\n\n\n\n

G\u00fcney Kore, Almanya’ya benzer. Kore’nin elektrik \u015firketi Kepco,<\/a> son 40 y\u0131l\u0131n en y\u00fcksek fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 yapt\u0131. Ge\u00e7en sene piyasalardan 17 milyar$ bor\u00e7lanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. 2022 zarar 24 milyar $ (30 trilyon won). 2021 zarar\u0131’da 4.8 milyar $. Tarife art\u0131\u015f\u0131 %9.5. Yaz\u0131da Kepco’nun sistemik risk olup olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 da tart\u0131\u015f\u0131lm\u0131\u015f. Hala maliyetlerin alt\u0131nda sat\u0131\u015f yap\u0131yormu\u015f. Bor\u00e7 tavan\u0131 da \u00f6zsermayenin 6 kat\u0131na \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lm\u0131\u015f.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Aviva<\/a>, 2030 y\u0131l\u0131nda Avrupa’daki a\u00e7\u0131k deniz r\u00fczgar sigortas\u0131 hacmini 2-3 milyar $ olarak hesapl\u0131yor. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Avrupa’da gaz fiyatlar\u0131 <\/a>sava\u015f ile 25\u20ac\/MWh’den 340\u20ac\/MWh’e \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Berenberg Bankas\u0131na g\u00f6re gaz fiyatlar\u0131nda her 100\u20ac\/MWh art\u0131\u015f, AB \u00fcyelerinin ekstra 380 milyar \u20ac daha fazla harcamas\u0131 demek. Bu da AB GSY\u0130H’in 2.4%’\u00fc ve hane t\u00fcketiminin %4.5’i. Avrupa GSY\u0130H’in %3’\u00fcn\u00fc enerji s\u00fcbvansiyonlar\u0131na \u00f6d\u00fcyor. Avrupa gaz depolar\u0131 %85 dolu ba\u015flam\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Gaz fiyatlar\u0131 %75 d\u00fc\u015ferek 75\u20ac\/MWh oldu.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0130ngiltere’deki elektroliz\u00f6r \u00fcreticisi ITM’in<\/a> de\u011feri bu sabah %14 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Son y\u0131lda %70 de\u011fer kaybetti. Piyasa de\u011feri 2021’deki 3.5 milyar pound’dan 575 milyon pound’a d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. ITM’in arkas\u0131nda hem \u0130ngiliz in\u015faat ekipman \u00fcreticisi JCB hem de Linde var.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

FT’de Uzun Yaz\u0131 – ABD Kaya-\u015feyl petrol\u00fc<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

IEA’e g\u00f6re 2023’te talep 1.7 mv\/g artarak, 102 mv\/g’e ula\u015facak. Goldman Sachs’a g\u00f6re ise art\u0131\u015f beklentisi 2.7mv\/g. Bakken’\u0131n \u00fcretimi 2020’de 1.5 mv\/g’e \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Harold Hamm’i de milyoner yapm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. 10 y\u0131l \u00f6nce 200 yerine \u015fimdi Bakken b\u00f6lgesinde 39 sondaj kulesi var. \u00dcretim de 1 mv\/g seviyesinde.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2011-2014 y\u0131llar\u0131nda ABD petrol \u00fcretimi y\u0131ldan y\u0131la %15 artt\u0131. \u00dcretim 2019’a kadar 10 y\u0131lda iki misline \u00e7\u0131karak 6 mv\/g’den 13 mv\/g’e \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Energy Aspects’e g\u00f6re seneye kuyulardaki \u00fcretim d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc h\u0131zlanacak. Ge\u00e7en sene, ilk defa, her yeni kuyudan \u00fcretilen ortalama petrol hacminde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f vard\u0131.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0130stihdam eksi\u011fi de jobs-to-workers 20,000 ki\u015fi seviyesinde. Kuyu a\u00e7mak %30 daha pahal\u0131ya mal oluyor. 2023’te %12 daha da y\u00fcksek maliyet bekleniyor. Ortalama \u015feyl kuyusu 7.3 milyon $’a mal oluyordu 2019’da. \u015eimdi 9 milyon $. 100 feet kazma maliyeti 2020’deki 75.000$’dan 100.000$’a \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u015eeyl ekibi kazanc\u0131n\u0131n eskiden 100%’\u00fcn\u00fc tekrar yat\u0131r\u0131ma ay\u0131r\u0131ken, \u015fimdi bu oran %40-50 civar\u0131nda. Bununla y\u0131lda %0-5 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi bekleniyor. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Avrupa gaz talebinde, son 5 y\u0131la g\u00f6re 2022’de %20 sanayi taraf\u0131nda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f var. Sadece Q4’te d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f %30. Bu da g\u00fcnl\u00fck 100 mcm’lik bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f demek. (Ref) Peki petrol fiyatlar\u0131 y\u00fcksek mi? (Ref) Artan enflasyondan dolay\u0131 petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe ge\u00e7ti\u011fini g\u00f6steren bir grafik: Avrupa’da k\u00f6m\u00fcr t\u00fcketimi artarken, gaz fiyat\u0131 ve karbon fiyat\u0131 da d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor. (Ref) Bir … Continue reading 16 Ocak 2023 – Avrupa’da Sanayi’nin Gaz Talebi<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[137,40,59],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/barissanli.com\/eak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3499"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/barissanli.com\/eak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/barissanli.com\/eak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/barissanli.com\/eak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/barissanli.com\/eak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3499"}],"version-history":[{"count":14,"href":"https:\/\/barissanli.com\/eak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3499\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":3531,"href":"https:\/\/barissanli.com\/eak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3499\/revisions\/3531"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/barissanli.com\/eak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3499"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/barissanli.com\/eak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3499"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/barissanli.com\/eak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3499"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}