{"id":308,"date":"2017-01-03T12:54:00","date_gmt":"2017-01-03T12:54:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/barissanli.com\/eak\/?p=308"},"modified":"2017-01-03T12:54:00","modified_gmt":"2017-01-03T12:54:00","slug":"3-ocak-2017","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/barissanli.com\/eak\/2017\/01\/3-ocak-2017\/","title":{"rendered":"3 Ocak 2017"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/a>Piyasalar tatilden d\u00f6nd\u00fc. Bug\u00fcn Sohbet Karbuz\u2019un \u201cRus gaz\u0131, n\u00fckleer ve \u00c7in\u201d yorumu var. Rusya \u015feyl\u2019de ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 olursa, petrol sekt\u00f6r\u00fc bir \u201carz \u015foku\u201d ya\u015far ama devlet planlar\u0131 bile \u00e7ok h\u0131zl\u0131 bir at\u0131l\u0131m g\u00f6rm\u00fcyor. D\u00fcnyada bu\u011fdaydan \u00e7ok \u00e7elik \u00fcretiliyor, ilgin\u00e7 geldi. ABD enerji g\u00fcndeminde yenilenebilir ve elektrikli arabalar merak konusu. Suudiler Asya fiyat\u0131n\u0131 artt\u0131r\u0131yorlar. Libya petrol \u00fcretimi 2 senenin zirvesinde.2016\u2019da 7 \u00fclke stoklara ortalama 1.1 mv\/g depo yapm\u0131\u015f. \u0130statistikte hangi Rus petrol \u00fcreticisi ne kadar \u00fcretti, \u00fcretimini de\u011fi\u015ftirdi.<\/p>\n

Yorum \u2013 Sohbet Karbuz<\/b><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Avrupa Birli\u011fi, Rus gaz\u0131na olan ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 azaltmak konusunda ayyuka \u00e7\u0131kar derecede politik \u00e7abalarken ticari ger\u00e7ekler bamba\u015fka resim \u00e7izmeye devam ediyor. 2016 y\u0131l\u0131nda CIS \u00fclkeleri d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda kalan Avrupa \u00fclkelerine Gazprom’un yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 ihracat 159 bcm den 179 bcm’e \u00e7\u0131karak tarihi bir rekora ula\u015ft\u0131. \u015eu anda di\u011fer boru gazlar\u0131yla olan rekabeti bir kenara b\u0131rak\u0131n LNG ile bile rahat\u00e7a rekabet eden Rus gaz\u0131n\u0131n Avrupa gaz piyasas\u0131nda pazar pay\u0131n\u0131 ge\u00e7en y\u0131l artt\u0131rmas\u0131na Avrupa Birli\u011fi Komisyonundan bakal\u0131m nas\u0131l bir yorum gelecek. Bu arada, fiyat anla\u015fmazl\u0131\u011f\u0131 sonucu T\u00fcrkmenistan \u0130ran’a gaz ihrac\u0131n\u0131 keserken iki soru kafa kurcal\u0131yor. Daha kendi gaz ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131 hen\u00fcz tam kar\u015f\u0131layamayan \u0130ran’\u0131n Avrupaya gaz ihra\u00e7 planlar\u0131 ne kadar ger\u00e7ek\u00e7i. Benzer \u015fekilde, T\u00fcrkmen gaz\u0131n\u0131n \u0130ran ve T\u00fcrkiye \u00fczerinden Avrupaya iletilmesi konusunda yaz\u0131l\u0131p \u00e7izilenlerin ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi ne kadar olanakl\u0131.<\/p>\n

N\u00fckleer enerji geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclkelerde daha \u00e7ok konu\u015fulurken bat\u0131l\u0131 \u00fclkelerde de halk\u0131n sesi daha \u00e7ok duyulmaya ba\u015flayacak. Iran 2025 y\u0131l\u0131na kadar yakla\u015f\u0131k 76 GW olan elektrik kurulu g\u00fc\u00e7 kapasitesini 100 GW’a \u00e7\u0131karmay\u0131 planl\u0131yor. Bu art\u0131\u015f\u0131n %12’sinin n\u00fckleerden gelmesi hedefleniyor. \u0130svi\u00e7re’de bulunan 5 n\u00fckleer santral\u0131n kapat\u0131lmas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik yap\u0131lan referandumda hay\u0131r \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 ile bu santrallerin g\u00fcvenli ve g\u00fcvenilir oldu\u011fu s\u00fcrece kullan\u0131lmaya devam edilmesine karar verilirken yeni bir n\u00fckleer santral yap\u0131lmayacak. Elekti\u011fin %60’\u0131n\u0131 hidro, kalan\u0131n\u0131 n\u00fckleerden \u00fcreten \u00fclkede n\u00fckleer santrallerin yerini ilerde yenilenebilir enerjinin almas\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde bir e\u011filim var. ABD’de n\u00fckleer yanl\u0131s\u0131 bir y\u00f6netim i\u015f ba\u015f\u0131na gelirken, elektri\u011fin yakla\u015f\u0131k d\u00f6rtte birini n\u00fckleerden sa\u011flayan AB’de (Euratom verilerine g\u00f6re) 2050 y\u0131l\u0131na kadar 100 yeni santralin yap\u0131laca\u011f\u0131 tahmin ediliyor. Bu santrallerin \u00e7o\u011fu eskimi\u015f santrallerin yerini alacak. \u00c7in’de 60 yeni reakt\u00f6r ileriki y\u0131llarda devreye girecek. Bu geli\u015fmeler uranyum arz\u0131nda d\u0131\u015fa ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n devam edece\u011fine ve dolay\u0131s\u0131yla ileride bu ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n uranyum arz g\u00fcvenli\u011fi ba\u015fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 alt\u0131nda daha \u00e7ok konu\u015fulaca\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Kazakistan halen global uranyum arz\u0131n\u0131n %41’ini sa\u011flarken kalan miktar\u0131n \u00e7o\u011funu Kanada, Avustralya ve Nijer olu\u015fturuyor. Bu y\u00fczden \u0130spanya’da 2018 y\u0131l\u0131nda devreye girmeye beklenen Salamanca uranyum madeni AB i\u00e7in \u00e7ok \u00f6nem ta\u015f\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

\u00c7in 2017 y\u0131l\u0131nda k\u00fcresel k\u00f6m\u00fcr piyasas\u0131nda a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 daha da hissettirecek. Hindistan, Endonezya ve Vietnam’da \u00f6nemli k\u00f6m\u00fcr talep art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklenirken \u00c7in en b\u00fcy\u00fck t\u00fcketici konumunu koruyacak. Bu arada Pekin ba\u015fta olmak \u00fczere bir \u00e7ok \u015fehirde ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz g\u00fcnlerde a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 hava kirlili\u011fi nedeniyle okullar ve fabrikalar tatil edilirken ara\u00e7 trafi\u011fi yar\u0131 yar\u0131ya azalt\u0131ld\u0131. K\u00f6m\u00fcr\u00fcn gazla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 yoluyla b\u00fcy\u00fck \u015fehirlerde k\u00f6m\u00fcr t\u00fcketiminin gazla ikamesi yan\u0131nda benzin ve mazotlu ara\u00e7lar\u0131n yerinin elektrikli ara\u00e7larla doldurulmas\u0131 planlan\u0131yor.\u200b<\/p>\n

Bilgiler<\/b><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

\u00c7elik<\/a>, d\u00fcnyada her y\u0131l 900 milyar $ de\u011ferinde 1.6 milyar ton \u00e7elik eritiliyor. D\u00fcnya bu\u011fday<\/a> \u00fcretimi de 749 milyon ton. 2016\u2019da \u00e7elikte 6 \u0130ngiliz istihdam\u0131ndan 1\u2019i eksildi, ABD\u2019de US Steel i\u015f g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fcn \u00e7eyre\u011fini g\u00f6nderdi. D\u00fcnya\u2019da \u00e7elik kapasitesi 2.4 milyar ton\/y\u0131l. \u00c7in 5 y\u0131lda 150 milyon ton kapasite kapatacak. Amerika\u2019da \u00fcretkenlikte 2 misline \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015f.<\/p>\n

Rusya<\/a> Sibirya\u2019daki Bazhenov formasyonu 75 milyar varil ile, d\u00fcnyan\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck \u015feyl rezervi, yaz boyunca 39 hidrolik \u00e7atlatmay\u0131 tamamlad\u0131. Art\u0131k soru \u201cne zaman?\u201d, Gazprom Neft 2023\u2019te 40bin v\/g (en az) \u00fcretmeyi planl\u0131yor. Bu sene Krasnoleninskoye alan\u0131ndaki bir BAzhenov kuyusunda 50 ton\/g\u00fcn petrol \u00fcretimi yap\u0131ld\u0131. Sorun teknoloji k\u0131s\u0131tlar\u0131,<\/p>\n

Hindistan<\/a> Tuticorin\u2019de k\u00f6m\u00fcr santralinden \u00e7\u0131kan CO2\u2019yi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetle soda k\u00fcl\u00fcne \u00e7eviren bir sistem ile d\u00fcnyan\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetli CCU (karbon yakalama ve kullanma) sistemi devrede. Senede 60,000 ton CO2\u2019yi soda yapacak.<\/p>\n

Suudiler<\/a>, Asya\u2019ya OSP (Official selling price) fiyat\u0131n\u0131 \u015eubat i\u00e7in 50 cent ila 1$\/varil artt\u0131racaklar gibi g\u00f6z\u00fck\u00fcyor. Sebep, Dubai fiyat\u0131ndaki g\u00fc\u00e7lenme ve rafineri marjlar\u0131n\u0131n sa\u011fl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131. Suudilerin Ocak\u2019ta \u00fcretimi 486bin v\/g azaltacaklar.<\/p>\n

\u0130ngiltere\u2019deki<\/a> k\u00f6m\u00fcr santral verimlilikleri ortalama %38. Forward e\u011frilerde, yaz\u0131n k\u00f6m\u00fcrlerin \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmakta zorlanaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. En az %40 verimli olan %49.13 verimli CCGT (kombine \u00e7evrim) ile ba\u015f edebilir. Hesaplamalarda 2 pount\/MWh k\u00f6m\u00fcr O&M\u2019e kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k 1 pound\/MWh gaz O&M\u2019i \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc.<\/p>\n

Kuveyt<\/a>, Al Anba gazetesinin Kuwait Oil CEO Jamal Jaafer\u2019e dayand\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 haberde Kuveyt\u2019in \u00fcretimi 130bin v\/g kesti\u011fini duyurdu. Petrol 60 $\/v \u2018i g\u00f6r\u00fcnce artan ABD kuleleri fiyat s\u0131n\u0131rlay\u0131c\u0131 fakt\u00f6r olacak.<\/p>\n

Libya\u2019n\u0131n<\/a> petrol \u00fcretimi, Libya National Oil Corp \u00fcst d\u00fczey yetkililerine g\u00f6re 690,000 v\/g ile 2 y\u0131l\u0131n zirvesinde<\/p>\n

2017 ABD\u2019de enerji g\u00fcndemi<\/a>; k\u00f6m\u00fcr\u00fcn gelece\u011fi \u201cenerji geli\u015fimi fiyat, teknoloji ve jeoloji ile belirlenir\u201d; Temiz elektrik plan\u0131 (CPP)\u2019\u0131n gelece\u011fi \u201c24 eyalet CPP\u2019yi durdurmak i\u00e7in dava a\u00e7m\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u201d; Trump\u2019un yenilenebilir plan\u0131 \u201cfederal topraklarda izinlerin durumu\u201d; eyaletlerin tepkisi \u201c29 eyaletin kendi yenilenebilir ve sera gaz\u0131 pplan\u0131 var\u201d<\/p>\n

2017 \u00c7in\u2019in<\/a> petrol ve \u00fcr\u00fcnleri g\u00fcndemi; y\u00fcksek fiyatlar 60$\u2019\u0131 a\u015farsa \u00c7in\u2019in d\u00fc\u015fen \u00fcretimi sabit kalabilir, ayr\u0131ca SPR(stratejik petrol stoklar\u0131na) al\u0131mlar\u0131 devlet taraf\u0131ndan yap\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan \u00e7ok etkilenmez, ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z rafineriler (ge\u00e7en sene %81 daha fazla gazya\u011f\u0131 ve benzin \u00fcrettiler) eski rahatl\u0131\u011f\u0131 bulamayabilir,<\/p>\n

1 MW sabit montajl\u0131 g\u00fcne\u015f<\/a> sistemi bug\u00fcn ki 1.14 milyon $\u2019dan 2025\u2019te 0,73 milyon $\u2019a d\u00fc\u015fecek. Mod\u00fcl ve inverter maliyet toplam\u0131 t\u00fcm maliyetin yar\u0131s\u0131ndan daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyeye gelirse marj kalmam\u0131\u015f demektir bence<\/p>\n

\u00c7in\u2019in<\/a> 13. 5 y\u0131ll\u0131k kalk\u0131nma plan\u0131; 2016 y\u0131l\u0131ndaki 3.3 milyar ton k\u00f6m\u00fcr \u00fcretimini 2020\u2019de 3.9 milyar ton ile s\u0131n\u0131rlayacak. \u0130lgin\u00e7 olan\u0131 800 milyon ton verimsiz \u00fcretimi 500 milyon ton geli\u015fmi\u015f maden kapasitesi ile de\u011fi\u015ftirecek. 5930 resmi k\u00f6m\u00fcr madeni var. 2018 sonras\u0131, 1.2 milyon ton\/y\u0131l kapasiteye sahip yeni madenlere [sadece] izin verilecek<\/p>\n

\u0130statistik<\/b><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Hangi Rus petrol \u015firketi ne kadar \u00fcretim artt\u0131rd\u0131 veya azaltt\u0131? (Traders Community<\/a>)<\/p>\n


\n<\/b><\/span><\/span>– <\/span><\/span>Novatek y\u0131ldan y\u0131la<\/span><\/span><\/strong>, +37.6% b\u00fcy\u00fcme ile 12.46 milyon ton
\n– <\/span><\/span>Gazprom Neft<\/span><\/span><\/strong> +6.7% b\u00fcy\u00fcme ile 57.79 milyon ton <\/span><\/span>
\n– <\/span><\/span>Bashneft<\/span><\/span><\/strong> +6.3% <\/span><\/span>b\u00fcy\u00fcme ile <\/span><\/span>0.8 m<\/span><\/span>ilyon ton<\/span><\/span>
\n– <\/span><\/span>Tatneft<\/span><\/span><\/strong> +5.3% <\/span><\/span>b\u00fcy\u00fcme ile <\/span><\/span>28.69 m<\/span><\/span>ilyon ton<\/span><\/span>
\n– <\/span><\/span>Rosneft<\/span><\/span><\/strong> +<\/span><\/span>0.5% <\/span><\/span>b\u00fcy\u00fcme ile <\/span><\/span>209.96 m<\/span><\/span>ilyon ton<\/span><\/span>
\n– <\/span><\/span>Surgutneftegaz<\/span><\/span><\/strong>oil +0.4% <\/span><\/span>b\u00fcy\u00fcme ile<\/span><\/span> 61.85 <\/span><\/span>milyon ton<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

<\/span><\/span>\u00dcretimi d\u00fc\u015fen \u015firketler<\/span><\/span>;<\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

– <\/span><\/span>Lukoil\u2019<\/span><\/span><\/strong>in \u00fcretimi <\/span><\/span><\/strong>-2.8% <\/span><\/span>d\u00fc\u015ferek<\/span><\/span> 83.57 <\/span><\/span>milyon ton<\/span><\/span>
\n– <\/span><\/span>RussNeft<\/span><\/span><\/strong> \u00fcretimi<\/span><\/span><\/strong> -5.2% <\/span><\/span>d\u00fc\u015ferek <\/span><\/span>7 m<\/span><\/span>ilyon ton<\/span><\/span>
\n– <\/span><\/span>Independent Oil Company<\/span><\/span><\/strong>(\u015eirket ismi gibi yaz\u0131lm\u0131\u015f, ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z \u00fcreticiler dememi\u015f)<\/span><\/span><\/strong> \u00fcretimi<\/span><\/span><\/strong> \u2013 1.3% <\/span><\/span>d\u00fc\u015ferek<\/span><\/span> 2.3 <\/span><\/span>milyon ton oldu.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Grafik<\/b><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

2016\u2019da petrol stoklar\u0131na 7 \u00fclke 1.1 mv\/g petrol ald\u0131. (TankerTrackers<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/b>\u00a0<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u200f<\/span><\/span><\/span>@<\/span><\/span><\/span>TankerTrackers<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/a>)<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Rusya\u2019n\u0131n gelecekteki petrol \u00fcretiminin modlara g\u00f6re ayr\u0131m\u0131 (FT<\/a>)<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Tarih<\/b><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Yaz saati \u2013 Abdi \u0130pek\u00e7i \u2013 Milliyet, 7 May\u0131s 1973<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Piyasalar tatilden d\u00f6nd\u00fc. Bug\u00fcn Sohbet Karbuz\u2019un \u201cRus gaz\u0131, n\u00fckleer ve \u00c7in\u201d yorumu var. Rusya \u015feyl\u2019de ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 olursa, petrol sekt\u00f6r\u00fc bir \u201carz \u015foku\u201d ya\u015far ama devlet planlar\u0131 bile \u00e7ok h\u0131zl\u0131 bir at\u0131l\u0131m g\u00f6rm\u00fcyor. D\u00fcnyada bu\u011fdaydan \u00e7ok \u00e7elik \u00fcretiliyor, ilgin\u00e7 geldi. ABD enerji g\u00fcndeminde yenilenebilir ve elektrikli arabalar merak konusu. Suudiler Asya fiyat\u0131n\u0131 artt\u0131r\u0131yorlar. Libya petrol \u00fcretimi … Continue reading 3 Ocak 2017<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/barissanli.com\/eak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/308"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/barissanli.com\/eak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/barissanli.com\/eak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/barissanli.com\/eak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/barissanli.com\/eak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=308"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/barissanli.com\/eak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/308\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":312,"href":"https:\/\/barissanli.com\/eak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/308\/revisions\/312"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/barissanli.com\/eak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=308"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/barissanli.com\/eak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=308"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/barissanli.com\/eak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=308"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}