{"id":2206,"date":"2020-01-07T19:56:54","date_gmt":"2020-01-07T19:56:54","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/barissanli.com\/eak\/?p=2206"},"modified":"2020-01-07T19:56:54","modified_gmt":"2020-01-07T19:56:54","slug":"pjmin-2020-uzun-donem-yuk-ongorusu-raporundaki-teknik-detaylar","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/barissanli.com\/eak\/2020\/01\/pjmin-2020-uzun-donem-yuk-ongorusu-raporundaki-teknik-detaylar\/","title":{"rendered":"PJM’in 2020 uzun d\u00f6nem y\u00fck \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcs\u00fc raporundaki teknik detaylar"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

T\u00fcm detayl\u0131 bilgiler, Excel dosyalar\u0131 ve rapora bu linkten<\/a> eri\u015febilirsiniz. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Neden \u00f6nemli g\u00f6rd\u00fcm?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

PJM’in \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclerinde modelin arka plan\u0131nda baz\u0131 parametreler \u00e7ok ilgimi \u00e7ekti. Mesela veri merkezlerinin enerji t\u00fcketimi ile ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcme aras\u0131nda birebir ili\u015fki olmamas\u0131, CVR gibi gerilim d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcml\u00fc tasarruf y\u00f6ntemlerinin etkileri, talep d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcnde verimlili\u011fin g\u00fcne\u015ften daha etkili olmas\u0131, teknik detaylarda g\u00fcnlerin, noel \u0131\u015f\u0131kland\u0131rmalar\u0131n\u0131n, CDD yani so\u011futma g\u00fcn derecenin gecikmeli olarak da hesapta yer almas\u0131 vs. ilgin\u00e7 geldi. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

PJM nedir?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

30 Aral\u0131k’ta ABD’deki \u00f6nemli b\u00f6lgesel iletim birliklerinden (organization). PJM ile ilgili yaz\u0131lm\u0131\u015f bir kitap da var : \u201cCreating Competitive Power Markets: The PJM Model\u201d ad\u0131yla (link)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

PJM’in \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcleri \u00f6nemli, \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc teknolojinin u\u00e7 noktalar\u0131nda denemeleri ve planlamalar\u0131 var. Bunun en b\u00fcy\u00fck sebebi ise muhtemelen ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z bir organizasyon anla\u015fmas\u0131 ile kurulmas\u0131 ve yeni \u015feyler denemek i\u00e7in kanun de\u011fi\u015fikliklerine ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131n olmamas\u0131. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Benim ilgimi \u00e7eken PJM’in 2020 y\u00fck \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcs\u00fcnden \u00e7ok ek yani supplamentteki baz\u0131 detaylar.
Rapor ile ilgili \u00f6zet burada<\/a> :
Sayfan\u0131n son paragraf\u0131nda raporun linki ve ekinin linki var.
<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Rapor \u00f6zetinden baz\u0131 sat\u0131r ba\u015flar\u0131<\/strong>

-Hane t\u00fcketim art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 1998’den bu yana gelen %0.9’dan gelece\u011fe %0.6 art\u0131\u015f olarak d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrerek ta\u015f\u0131malar\u0131
-Ticari t\u00fcketim de %1’den 2020-2035 i\u00e7i %0.6 olarak \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015f
-En ilginci ise sanayinin 1998-2018’de ortalama %-0.5 k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclen sanayi elektrik talebini ile pozitif yani %0.4 ile \u00f6ng\u00f6rmeleri
-Elektrikli arabalar\u0131n talep art\u0131\u015f\u0131na %0.1den daha az t\u00fcketim art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ekleyece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6rm\u00fc\u015fler
-E\u011fer g\u00fcne\u015f ve cihaz verimliliklerindeki art\u0131\u015flar olmasa talep art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 %1 bekliyorlar
-Fakat mevcut y\u00fck art\u0131\u015f\u0131 %0.5.
-Y\u00fck art\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn %0.2si t\u00fcketicilerin yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00fcne\u015f \u00fcretimleri, %0.3’\u00fc de verimlilik. VER\u0130ML\u0130L\u0130K etkisini g\u00fcne\u015ften fazla \u00f6ng\u00f6rmeleri de ilgin\u00e7<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As\u0131l K\u0131s\u0131m:Ek ve Model detaylar\u0131<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

(link)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

PJM rapora verdi\u011fi ekte detayl\u0131 olarak modellemedeki temel parametrelerini anlatm\u0131\u015f. Bana ilgin\u00e7 gelen bir ka\u00e7 k\u0131s\u0131m \u015funlar:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

  1. Model Yap\u0131s\u0131:Modeli \u00f6nce iklim-hava fakt\u00f6rlerinden etkilenmeyen \u015fekilde kurgulayarak daha sonra hava etkilerini i\u00e7eren ikinci modele ge\u00e7iyorlar.<\/li>
  2. <\/li><\/ol>\n\n\n\n
    \"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

    2. Takvim etkilerinde Christmas – yani Noel ayd\u0131nlatma etkilerini de dikkate al\u0131yorlar. Tatilden \u00f6nceki g\u00fcnlerde de sanki %20lik bir g\u00f6receli (tatil=1, di\u011fer g\u00fcnler =0, tatilden \u00f6nceki g\u00fcn =0.2) bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fleri var.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    3. Alt sekt\u00f6rler baz\u0131nda 3 ana sekt\u00f6r var ve “Appliance Saturation” yani cihaz say\u0131s\u0131ndaki doygunluk en ilgin\u00e7 parametrelerden biri. Daha \u00f6nce g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz makalelerde cihaz say\u0131s\u0131ndaki doygunluk yan\u0131nda, yeni tip cihazlar (ipad, vs) daki art\u0131\u015f\u0131nda \u00f6nemli oldu\u011funu g\u00f6rm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fck<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

    4. Konut t\u00fcketiminde \u0131s\u0131tma, so\u011futma ve di\u011fer diye bir ayr\u0131m var. Y\u0131ll\u0131k konut kullan\u0131m\u0131nda bu 10000 kWh’e denk geliyor. Yani ayl\u0131k 900kWh, bunun 500 kWh ‘\u0131 \u0131s\u0131tma hari\u00e7 gibi g\u00f6z\u00fck\u00fcyor. Sanki T\u00fcrkiye’deki ortalaman\u0131n 3-4 kat\u0131.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

    5. Ticarethanede alan ba\u015f\u0131na t\u00fcketim esas al\u0131n\u0131yor. Buradaki dikkat edilmesi gereken n\u00fcfus ba\u015f\u0131na alan\u0131n da artaca\u011f\u0131 tahmini<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    6. Sanayide ise 3 ana sekt\u00f6re bak\u0131lm\u0131\u015f. \u0130n\u015faat, do\u011fal kaynaklar ve maden ile imalat sekt\u00f6rleri. Moody’s Analytics’den istihdam \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcleri alm\u0131\u015flar. Burada da sanayi enerji yo\u011funlu\u011fu energy use per output,yani \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\/\u00fcretim ba\u015f\u0131na enerji kullan\u0131m\u0131 bana ilgin\u00e7 geldi. Normalde bir\u00e7ok ki\u015fi $ \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 ba\u015f\u0131na enerji kullan\u0131m\u0131na bakar<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    7. Is\u0131tma ve so\u011futma k\u0131sm\u0131 \u00e7ok detayl\u0131: Nihai t\u00fcketimde \u0131s\u0131 t\u00fcketimi endeksini sabit tutarak, so\u011futma endeksini y\u00fckseltmi\u015fler. Yani \u0131s\u0131nma ihtiyac\u0131 nisbeten sabit, ama so\u011futma talep art\u0131\u015f\u0131 baya\u011f\u0131 pozitif g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

    8. Is\u0131tmada CDD yani so\u011futma g\u00fcn derecesini kullanm\u0131\u015flar. Fakat daha da farkl\u0131 olarak geciktirilmi\u015f CDD (lagged Cooling Degree Days) de kullan\u0131lm\u0131\u015f. Bizdeki modellerde genelde bu bir g\u00fcn \u00f6nceki talep ile asl\u0131nda modellere dahil edilir. Sayfa 18’e kadar detayl\u0131 k\u0131s\u0131mlar var<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    9. Da\u011f\u0131t\u0131k g\u00fcne\u015f ise da\u011f\u0131t\u0131m alt\u0131nda oldu\u011fundan PJM’in piyasalar\u0131nda yer alm\u0131yor kabul edilmi\u015f. Yani PJM’in hesaplad\u0131\u011f\u0131 talepten pay alan, PJM’i g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc talebi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcren bir fakt\u00f6r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    10. PEV :\u015earjl\u0131 elektrik arabalar, PJM’in 2020 raporuyla ilk defa yer verdi\u011fi bir konu. Bu hesaplamada ara\u00e7lar\u0131n 20 y\u0131l piyasada kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015f. Pik talebe etkide ise iki seviye \u015farj ayr\u0131m\u0131na gidilmi\u015f. Seviye 1 (Level 1) \u015farj 1.4kW ve seviye 2 \u015farj 7.7 kW \u00e7ekiyor kabul edilmi\u015f. Ara\u00e7lar\u0131n %80’i 1.seviye \u015farj kullanacak deniyor Oysa ileri do\u011fru tahminlerde 40kWh batarya i\u00e7in seviye 1 tahminleri \u00e7ok y\u00fcksek. Buradaki tahminlerine kat\u0131lm\u0131yorum. Seviye 2 bence daha \u00e7ok olmal\u0131<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Ortalama \u015farjl\u0131 elektrikli araba (PEV)y\u0131lda 4500kWh t\u00fcketiyor var say\u0131lm\u0131\u015f. Kabaca 21-22 kWh\/100km dersek y\u0131lda 20000 km’ye denk geliyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    11. CVR – Yani Gerilim D\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmeli Tasarruf – Conservation Voltage Reduction konusunda sayfa 23’teki Baltimore Gas and Electric’in (alt da\u011f\u0131t\u0131m b\u00f6lgesi) k\u0131sm\u0131 bana ilgin\u00e7 geldi. 2014’te ba\u015flayan program 2022’de t\u00fcm b\u00f6lgede kullan\u0131lacakm\u0131\u015f. Bu sistemde trafo \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f voltajlar\u0131 cihazlar\u0131 kapatmayacak \u015fekilde tolere edilebilecek \u015fekilde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fclerek, bir miktar tasarruf sa\u011flan\u0131yor. Benzer \u015fekilde detay\u0131n\u0131 anlayamamakla birlikte COMED b\u00f6lgesinde de Gerilim Eniyileme (Voltage Optimization) program\u0131 da olduk\u00e7a talepte etkili g\u00f6z\u00fck\u00fcyor<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    12. Belki de en ilgin\u00e7 noktalardan biri veri merkezleri (data center) : Dominio b\u00f6lgesi, b\u00f6lgesindeki veri merkezlerinin y\u00fck olu\u015fturdu\u011funu ama ekonomik etkisinin nisbeten daha az oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi. \u015e\u00f6yle d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcn Google 5 tane daha veri merkezi kurdu ama fatura ve ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fck California’da. Yani veri merkezleri ile ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcme-talep ili\u015fkisi ger\u00e7ekten anlams\u0131zla\u015f\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    13. \u0130leri do\u011fru y\u00fck tahminlerinde ise (sayfa 29) olas\u0131l\u0131ksal yani percentile bir grafik olu\u015fturmalar\u0131 gayet iyi olmu\u015f. Yani o y\u0131ldaki pik ne olacak yerine, yaz\u0131n pik talep da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 nas\u0131l olacak sorusu daha mant\u0131kl\u0131(a\u015fa\u011f\u0131da).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

    <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    T\u00fcm detayl\u0131 bilgiler, Excel dosyalar\u0131 ve rapora bu linkten eri\u015febilirsiniz. Neden \u00f6nemli g\u00f6rd\u00fcm? PJM’in \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclerinde modelin arka plan\u0131nda baz\u0131 parametreler \u00e7ok ilgimi \u00e7ekti. Mesela veri merkezlerinin enerji t\u00fcketimi ile ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcme aras\u0131nda birebir ili\u015fki olmamas\u0131, CVR gibi gerilim d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcml\u00fc tasarruf y\u00f6ntemlerinin etkileri, talep d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcnde verimlili\u011fin g\u00fcne\u015ften daha etkili olmas\u0131, teknik detaylarda g\u00fcnlerin, noel \u0131\u015f\u0131kland\u0131rmalar\u0131n\u0131n, CDD … Continue reading PJM’in 2020 uzun d\u00f6nem y\u00fck \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcs\u00fc raporundaki teknik detaylar<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[17,16,15,18,14,20,19],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/barissanli.com\/eak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2206"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/barissanli.com\/eak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/barissanli.com\/eak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/barissanli.com\/eak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/barissanli.com\/eak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2206"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/barissanli.com\/eak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2206\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2214,"href":"https:\/\/barissanli.com\/eak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2206\/revisions\/2214"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/barissanli.com\/eak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2206"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/barissanli.com\/eak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2206"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/barissanli.com\/eak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2206"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}