{"id":2111,"date":"2018-07-03T07:00:13","date_gmt":"2018-07-03T07:00:13","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/barissanli.com\/eak\/?p=2111"},"modified":"2018-07-03T07:00:13","modified_gmt":"2018-07-03T07:00:13","slug":"3-temmuz-2018","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/barissanli.com\/eak\/2018\/07\/3-temmuz-2018\/","title":{"rendered":"3 Temmuz 2018"},"content":{"rendered":"

Londra’da UBS’in d\u00fczenledi\u011fi Benchmark Minerals etkinli\u011finde elektrikli arabalar ve depolama konusunda ilgin\u00e7 konu\u015fmalar olmu\u015ftu. Etkinli\u011fe kat\u0131lan FGE’den C\u00fcneyt Kazoko\u011flu<\/a> kendi ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 notlar\u0131n bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 benle de b\u00f6l\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Yay\u0131nlamam i\u00e7in de izin verdi:<\/p>\n

Ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz haftalarda b\u00fcy\u00fck bir yat\u0131r\u0131m bankas\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fczenledi\u011fi elektrikli arabalar ve ak\u00fc trendleri etkinli\u011fine kat\u0131ld\u0131m. \u0130\u015fim petrol, \u00f6zelde de de\u011fi\u015fen enerji ve petrol talebi odakl\u0131 oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in bu konular benim i\u00e7in \u00e7ok \u00f6nemli. Bankan\u0131n kendi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclerinden ziyade iki farkl\u0131 oturumda \u00f6\u011frendi\u011fim ve bu konularla ilgilenenlere faydas\u0131 olaca\u011f\u0131na inand\u0131\u011f\u0131m birka\u00e7 noktay\u0131 k\u0131saca payla\u015fmak istiyorum.<\/p>\n

Tony Seba
\nTony Seba ismini duyanlar ya da kendisini takip edenler radikal \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcleri hakk\u0131nda bilgi sahibidirler. Bundan neredeyse 10 y\u0131l sonra, 2030\u2019da b\u00fct\u00fcn ula\u015f\u0131m sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn ba\u015ftan a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 de\u011fi\u015fece\u011fi, toplu ta\u015f\u0131man\u0131n kalk\u0131p sadece otonom ve elektrikli arabalarla seyahat edece\u011fimiz vb \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclerden,araba sekt\u00f6r\u00fcndeki k\u0131r\u0131lmay\u0131 m\u00fctemadiyen cep telefonu sekt\u00f6r\u00fc ile kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmas\u0131 gibi mant\u0131ks\u0131z buldu\u011fum bir s\u00fcr\u00fc yorumu var.<\/p>\n

Fakat Seba\u2019n\u0131n de\u011feri, \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclerinden ziyade gidi\u015fat\u0131 nas\u0131l okudu\u011fu, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnme \u015fekli.<\/p>\n

Seba k\u0131r\u0131lmalar\u0131n (disruption) teknolojilerin birbirleri ile yak\u0131nla\u015f\u0131p birle\u015fti\u011fi anlarda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti\u011fini s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor. Misal ak\u0131ll\u0131 telefonlarda birbirinden ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z 5 teknolojinin geli\u015fip kesi\u015fti\u011fi yerde pazarda k\u0131r\u0131lman\u0131n ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti\u011fini vurguluyor. Bu 5 teknoloji<\/p>\n

\u2022 Veri depolama
\n\u2022 Dijital foto\u011fraf
\n\u2022 \u0130nternet h\u0131z\u0131
\n\u2022 Dokunmatik ekran
\n\u2022 L\u0131-ion ak\u00fcler<\/p>\n

Bu k\u0131r\u0131lma i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli olan bir detay da sadece 1 firman\u0131n ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 olmas\u0131n\u0131n yetmesi, yani \u00f6rne\u011fin Apple\u2019\u0131n iPhone\u2019u \u00e7\u0131karmas\u0131 b\u00fct\u00fcn telefon d\u00fcnyas\u0131n\u0131 ba\u015ftan a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 yeniden tasarlad\u0131.<\/p>\n

Gelelim bizim konuya. Ula\u015f\u0131mda Seba 3 teknolojinin \u015fu anda birbirlerine yakla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve birle\u015ftikleri noktada k\u0131r\u0131lman\u0131n ger\u00e7ekle\u015fece\u011fini s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor. Bu 3 teknoloji<\/p>\n

\u2022 Talep bazl\u0131 ula\u015f\u0131m (UBER vs gibi platformlar)
\n\u2022 Otonom ara\u00e7lar
\n\u2022 Elektrik arabalar<\/p>\n

Seba\u2019n\u0131n bu trend e\u011frileri do\u011fru olabilir, fakat \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131mlar\u0131 \u00e7ok radikal. Seba 2020-2025 aras\u0131nda elektrikli arabalar\u0131n i\u015fletme maliyetlerinin i\u00e7ten patlamal\u0131 motorlu ara\u00e7lara oranla 10 kat ucuz olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve bu nedenle filo operat\u00f6rleri taraf\u0131ndan tercih edileceklerini iddia ediyor.<\/p>\n

Otonom araba geli\u015ftirici Waymo firmas\u0131n\u0131 \u201cotomobilin Apple\u201d\u0131 olarak niteliyor ve sadece onlar\u0131n ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 olmas\u0131n\u0131n dahi b\u00fct\u00fcn end\u00fcstriyi de\u011fi\u015ftirece\u011fini belirtiyor.<\/p>\n

B\u00fct\u00fcn bunlar\u0131n sonucu olarak 2030 y\u0131l\u0131nda ABD\u2019de ki\u015fisel ula\u015f\u0131m\u0131n %95\u2019inin otonom ve elektrikli arabalarla yap\u0131laca\u011f\u0131, toplu ta\u015f\u0131m diye bir\u015fey kalmayaca\u011f\u0131 vs. gibi iddialar\u0131 var.<\/p>\n

Dedi\u011fim gibi, Seba\u2019n\u0131n \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcleri ve verdi\u011fi y\u0131llara fazla tak\u0131lmamak, fakat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnce sistemati\u011fini anlamak \u00f6nemli.<\/p>\n

Benchmark M\u0131nerals \u0130ntelligence
\nBenchmark Minerals nispeten yeni kurulmu\u015f ve ak\u00fc teknolojilerinin giderek y\u00fckselen dalgas\u0131nda s\u00f6rf yapan bir firma. Lithium-ion ak\u00fcler hakk\u0131nda analiz ve hammadde fiyatlamas\u0131 yap\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

\u00d6nemli noktalar:
\nOtomobil tipi toptan al\u0131c\u0131lar i\u00e7in li-ion ak\u00fc fiyatlar\u0131 2014\u2019te 280$\/kWs\u2019ten \u015fimdi 120-130$\/kWs\u2019e d\u00fc\u015fm\u00fc\u015f durumda.<\/p>\n

Tesla\u2019n\u0131n da kulland\u0131\u011f\u0131 18650 tip silindir ak\u00fclerde enerji yo\u011funlu\u011fu 1992\u2019de 200 Ws\/litre\u2019den 2002\u2019de 420 Ws\/litre\u2019ye, 2012\u2019de 600 Ws\/litre\u2019ye ve 2018\u2019de de 770 Ws\/litre\u2019ye inmi\u015f durumda. Burada \u00f6nemli bir nokta, bu tip ak\u00fclerdeki fizyolojik 800 Ws\/litre s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131.<\/p>\n

Fakat bu demek de\u011fil ki yolun sonuna geldik. Bundan sonraki verimlilik, ak\u00fc tak\u0131m\u0131 ve yaz\u0131l\u0131m teknolojisindeki geli\u015fmeler ile sa\u011flanacak ve anlad\u0131\u011f\u0131m kadar\u0131yla daha baya\u011f\u0131 potansiyel mevcut.<\/p>\n

Tesla\u2019n\u0131n iki b\u00fcy\u00fck avantaj\u0131 var. Birincisi NCA tipi ak\u00fc (Nikel-Kobalt-Aluminyum oksit) kullanmas\u0131. \u0130kincisi ise kendi yaz\u0131l\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 yapmalar\u0131. \u00d6zellikle bu ikinci nokta, yani software ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ok \u00f6nemli. Buna mukabil \u00e7o\u011fu di\u011fer otomobil markas\u0131 NCM (Nikel-Kobalt-Magnezyum) ak\u00fc kullan\u0131yor ve yaz\u0131l\u0131mlar\u0131 da ak\u00fc \u00fcreticilerinden vs al\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

Bu arada herkes otomobil sekt\u00f6r\u00fcne bakarken, as\u0131l b\u00fcy\u00fck potansiyeli enerji depolama sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde bekliyorlar. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc ak\u00fc temelli bir elektrik depolama tesisi 3-8 ay i\u00e7inde kurulurken, otomobil end\u00fcstrisinde bir model devri 4-6 y\u0131l al\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

Ak\u00fc fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n 2020\u2019de 100$\/kWs\u2019e d\u00fc\u015fmesini beklemiyorlar, \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc hammadde fiyatlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f (bilhassa lithium ve kobalt) y\u00fcksek olacak. Bu fiyatlar\u0131 ittiren talep neticesinde kobalt pazar\u0131nda 2022\u2019den itibaren arz eksi\u011fi bekleniyor.<\/p>\n

2023\u2019te \u00c7in (%53), Avrupa (%17) ve Kuzey Amerika (%14) lithium-ion ak\u00fc \u00fcretiminin an amerkezleri olacaklar.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Londra’da UBS’in d\u00fczenledi\u011fi Benchmark Minerals etkinli\u011finde elektrikli arabalar ve depolama konusunda ilgin\u00e7 konu\u015fmalar olmu\u015ftu. Etkinli\u011fe kat\u0131lan FGE’den C\u00fcneyt Kazoko\u011flu kendi ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 notlar\u0131n bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 benle de b\u00f6l\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Yay\u0131nlamam i\u00e7in de izin verdi: Ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz haftalarda b\u00fcy\u00fck bir yat\u0131r\u0131m bankas\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fczenledi\u011fi elektrikli arabalar ve ak\u00fc trendleri etkinli\u011fine kat\u0131ld\u0131m. \u0130\u015fim petrol, \u00f6zelde de de\u011fi\u015fen enerji ve petrol talebi … Continue reading 3 Temmuz 2018<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/barissanli.com\/eak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2111"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/barissanli.com\/eak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/barissanli.com\/eak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/barissanli.com\/eak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/barissanli.com\/eak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2111"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/barissanli.com\/eak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2111\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2112,"href":"https:\/\/barissanli.com\/eak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2111\/revisions\/2112"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/barissanli.com\/eak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2111"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/barissanli.com\/eak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2111"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/barissanli.com\/eak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2111"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}