Tahminlerim tutmasa da, yanl\u0131\u015flar\u0131 payla\u015fmak da ba\u015fkalar\u0131n\u0131n do\u011frular\u0131 bulmas\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flayabilir. Gelecek \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131m\u0131 yaparken bu seneki aritmeti\u011fim \u015f\u00f6yle. Senaryo \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131rken g\u00f6r\u00fcnen \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcy\u00fc sorgulamadan \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yorum ki sonraki senaryolar\u0131 \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131rken zihinsel bariyer olu\u015fturmas\u0131n. Bitince, neden b\u00f6yle olmal\u0131 ki diye tersine e\u011filiyorum. Son ad\u0131m ise olabilecek 3.senaryoyu belirlemek. Petrol tahminlerimin mekani\u011fi \u015f\u00f6yle: \u00d6nce forward curve-ileri vadeli e\u011frilere bak\u0131yorum, ne kadar yamulmu\u015f diye. E\u011fer son aylarda b\u00fcy\u00fck bir \u015fekil de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi var ise bunu d\u00fczeltme sinyali olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyorum. Spek\u00fclatif long-short ve net long pozisyonlara bak\u0131yorum. Bir \u00e7ok veride level yani d\u00fczeyine de\u011fil, momentum yani hareketinin h\u0131zlan\u0131p yava\u015flamas\u0131na bak\u0131yorum. Sonra as\u0131l olan talep ve rafineri al\u0131mlarna bak\u0131yorum. Petrolde ham petrol\u00fc fiyatlasak da, asl\u0131nda talep nihai \u00fcr\u00fcnde. \u0130leri vade e\u011frisi yamulmu\u015f ve \u00fcr\u00fcn stoklar\u0131 art\u0131yor ise 1 ay i\u00e7inde ham petrol fiyat\u0131na kesin yans\u0131r. Son olarak arzdaki ekonometrik ve saha modellerinin yap\u0131lm\u0131\u015flar\u0131na bak\u0131yorum. Mistik bir\u015fey yok, say\u0131lar-e\u011friler, yorumlar\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 bana mail atarsan\u0131z sevinirim. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc bu y\u00f6ntemler de tutmuyor. Petrolde Fitch ve Moody\u2019s petrol sekt\u00f6r risklerini g\u00f6rmesi ve g\u00f6stermesi sorun. PJM\u2019in \u00f6nerisine FERC kurul \u00fcyesi kar\u015f\u0131 \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.<\/p>\n
\u00d6zetler<\/strong><\/p>\n PJM\u2019in b\u00f6lgesel PTF (LMP) <\/a>fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 k\u00f6m\u00fcr ve n\u00fckleerin belirlemesine dair yeni metodolojisi \u00f6nerisine ABD FERC kurul \u00fcyesi LaFleur kar\u015f\u0131 \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. De\u011fi\u015fiklik elektrik fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 %2-5 artt\u0131racak.<\/p>\n D\u00fcn Fitch.. Bug\u00fcn Moody\u2019s<\/a>. Petrol rafineleri karbon d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm riskleri ile kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya. Hem \u00fcr\u00fcnlere talep d\u00fc\u015febilir hem de emisyon d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm hedeflerinden en \u00e7ok etkilenen sekt\u00f6r olabilir. D\u00fcnyadaki %10 rafineri kapasitesini 2025 gibi kapanma tehlikesinde g\u00f6r\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n Exxon<\/a> kendisine dava a\u00e7anlara \u201cThe La Jolla playbook\u201d ile kar\u015f\u0131 dava a\u00e7\u0131yor. Bu dava fikirlerinin 6 y\u0131l \u00f6nce California La Jolla\u2019da toplanan bir grup insan taraf\u0131ndan ortaya at\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 iddia ediyor ve firma imaj\u0131 ve komplodan dava a\u00e7\u0131yor. Kimin paras\u0131 \u00f6nce biterse….<\/p>\n ABD Enerji Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 <\/a>17.6 milyon $\u2019a 6 karbon yakalama projesi destekleyecek.<\/p>\n [FT$]Artan ABD faizleri, bor\u00e7lu \u015firketlerin bor\u00e7 \u00e7evirmesini zorla\u015ft\u0131rarak, \u015firket \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015fleri getirebilir. Duke Energy, bu sene 2 milyar $ hisse sat\u0131p, 5 y\u0131ll\u0131k yat\u0131r\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 1 milyar $ d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrecek. First Energy\u2019de hemen 2.5 milyar$ bularak bor\u00e7 kapatacak.<\/p>\n [FT$<\/a>] Iberdrola\u2019n\u0131n CEOsu\u2019da ucuz paran\u0131n sonunun gelmesinin, fazlaca \u015fi\u015firilmi\u015f[hyped] k\u00fcresel yenilenebilir sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde Enron tipi \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015flere sebep olabilir. \u0130spanyol \u015firket 2018-2022 aras\u0131 32 milyar \u20ac yat\u0131r\u0131m planl\u0131yor, 12 si yenilenebilir. 2017 kar\u0131 2.8 milyar \u20ac.<\/p>\n Meksika\u2019n\u0131n solcu ba\u015fkan aday\u0131 Amlo<\/a> \u2013 Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador daha \u00f6nce petrol sekt\u00f6r\u00fc reformuna kar\u015f\u0131 oldu\u011funu a\u00e7\u0131klam\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Ton d\u00fc\u015fm\u00fc\u015f, \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6re verilern petrol anla\u015fmalar\u0131 incelenecek ama y\u00fcr\u00fctmesi durdurulmayacak.<\/p>\n Goldman Sachs\u2019da <\/a>b\u00fcy\u00fck \u015firketlerden \u015fikayet edermi\u015f. ABD ekonomisi daha fazla b\u00fcy\u00fck \u015firketler taraf\u0131ndan domine edilmi\u015f durumda, \u00e7al\u0131\u015fanlara daha az \u00fccret \u00f6deyip daha \u00e7ok kazan\u0131yorlar. Neyseki elektrik ve do\u011falgaz \u015firketleri en k\u00f6t\u00fc durumdaki \u015firketler.<\/p>\n GE Power<\/a> enerji depolamaya y\u00f6nelik yeni bir i\u00e7 birim kurdu. Asl\u0131nda 2007\u2019de Durathon ile girdi ama \u00f6l\u00e7ek olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in b\u0131rakt\u0131.<\/p>\n Kargo u\u00e7aklar\u0131 <\/a>ton ta\u015f\u0131ma ba\u015f\u0131na yolcu u\u00e7aklar\u0131na g\u00f6re g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fc\u015fte neredeyse 3 kat verimli. 1 litre yak\u0131tla 8 ton km giden kargo u\u00e7aklar\u0131 ile 1 litre ile 3.5 ton km giden yolcu u\u00e7aklar\u0131. Fakat g\u00fcn sonunda \u201cbelly freight\u201d denilen yolcu uca\u011f\u0131nda ek kargo ta\u015f\u0131mak verimlilik gibi g\u00f6z\u00fck\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n EFET\u2019ten<\/a> \u0130spanya\u2019daki santrallerin kapanmas\u0131n\u0131 zorla\u015ft\u0131ran karara kar\u015f\u0131 bir metin. Do\u011fal oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131, yokluk fiyatlamas\u0131 sistem risklerini artt\u0131rmaz veya t\u00fcketicilere y\u00fcksek fiyat getirmez diyor.Demek istedikleri \u015fu: B\u0131rak yokluk olu\u015fsun fiyatlar oynas\u0131n, kimseye risk yok<\/p>\n Oxford Energy\u2019nin IPWeek\u2019teki sunumu <\/a>Suudi Arabistan\u2019a endi\u015feli bakm\u0131\u015f. Petrol \u00fcretiminde sorunlar d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc ama stoklar da d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnden art\u0131k jeopolitik olaylar\u0131 daha \u00e7ok hissederiz.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Tahminlerim tutmasa da, yanl\u0131\u015flar\u0131 payla\u015fmak da ba\u015fkalar\u0131n\u0131n do\u011frular\u0131 bulmas\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flayabilir. Gelecek \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131m\u0131 yaparken bu seneki aritmeti\u011fim \u015f\u00f6yle. Senaryo \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131rken g\u00f6r\u00fcnen \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcy\u00fc sorgulamadan \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yorum ki sonraki senaryolar\u0131 \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131rken zihinsel bariyer olu\u015fturmas\u0131n. Bitince, neden b\u00f6yle olmal\u0131 ki diye tersine e\u011filiyorum. Son ad\u0131m ise olabilecek 3.senaryoyu belirlemek. Petrol tahminlerimin mekani\u011fi \u015f\u00f6yle: \u00d6nce forward curve-ileri vadeli e\u011frilere bak\u0131yorum, ne … Continue reading 22 \u015eubat 2018<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/barissanli.com\/eak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1783"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/barissanli.com\/eak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/barissanli.com\/eak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/barissanli.com\/eak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/barissanli.com\/eak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1783"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/barissanli.com\/eak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1783\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1785,"href":"https:\/\/barissanli.com\/eak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1783\/revisions\/1785"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/barissanli.com\/eak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1783"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/barissanli.com\/eak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1783"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/barissanli.com\/eak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1783"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}