{"id":169,"date":"2016-11-10T16:06:09","date_gmt":"2016-11-10T16:06:09","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/barissanli.com\/eak\/?p=169"},"modified":"2016-11-10T16:06:09","modified_gmt":"2016-11-10T16:06:09","slug":"10-kasim-2016","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/barissanli.com\/eak\/2016\/11\/10-kasim-2016\/","title":{"rendered":"10 Kas\u0131m 2016"},"content":{"rendered":"

Word: https:\/\/drive.google.com\/open?id=0B3RIv3pMNaTdMDVNeFI0V3I4UVU<\/a><\/p>\n

Trump sonras\u0131 petrol hari\u00e7 di\u011fer emtia fiyatlar\u0131 ve firma de\u011ferleri y\u00fckseldi Peabody %50 y\u00fckselmi\u015f, en b\u00fcy\u00fck k\u00f6m\u00fcr \u00fcreticisi, inanamad\u0131m, ger\u00e7ekten %50. AB winter package\u2019daki reform \u00f6nerilerini bekliyoruz. ACER\u2019in AB piyasa raporu da ilgin\u00e7. \u00c7in r\u00fczgar hedefini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrd\u00fc. Nature Energy makalesinde, enerjiye eri\u015fimde g\u00fcnl\u00fck verilen elektrik s\u00fcresinin kesinti miktar\u0131ndan \u00f6nemli oldu\u011fu tart\u0131\u015f\u0131lm\u0131\u015f, elektri\u011fe eri\u015fimin kademeleri verilmi\u015f. \u00d6ng\u00f6r\u00fc modelleri se\u00e7imlerde da\u011f\u0131ld\u0131, herkes en karma\u015f\u0131k matematiksel\/ak\u0131ll\u0131 algoritma \u00e7\u0131lg\u0131nl\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ama kimse matematik bilmeyen Micheal Moore\u2019dan daha iyi tahmin+analiz yapamam\u0131\u015f. \u00dczerinde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnmek laz\u0131m.<\/p>\n

Bilgiler<\/b><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

D\u00fc\u015f\u00fck benzin fiyatlar\u0131<\/a> sebebi ile ABD\u2019de sat\u0131lan arabalardaki galon ba\u015f\u0131na mil rakam\u0131 2013 seviyesine d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc.<\/p>\n

\u00c7in<\/a> 2020 y\u0131l\u0131 r\u00fczgar hedeflerini 250 GW\u2019tan 210 GW\u2019a d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrd\u00fc.<\/p>\n

Trump Paris anla\u015fmas\u0131ndan hemen \u00e7ekilemez ama 2020 gibi yapabilir<\/a> veya hemen BM\u2019ye yaz\u0131l\u0131 bir not g\u00f6ndererek UNFCCC\u2019den \u00e7ekildi\u011fini belirtir. Bir y\u0131l sonra ayr\u0131lm\u0131\u015f olur. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla taah\u00fctler bo\u015fa d\u00fc\u015fm\u00fc\u015f olur.Ayr\u0131ca Ronald Reagen stratejisi ile kurumlara d\u00fc\u015fman ki\u015fileri kurumlar\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131na atayabilir.<\/p>\n

Trump\u2019un enerji dan\u0131\u015fman\u0131 Harold Hamm<\/a>, petrol ve gaz da d\u00fczenlemeleri geri alman\u0131n Ba\u015fkanl\u0131k i\u00e7in bir \u00f6ncelik oldu\u011funu s\u00f6ylemi\u015f. Hamm, Continental Resources(ABD \u015feyl petrol \u00fcreticisi) b\u00fcy\u00fck hissedar\u0131, vergileri indirmek Ronal Reagen d\u00f6neminde insanlara i\u015f kazand\u0131rd\u0131. D\u00fczenlemeleri geri almak\u2026 Bu iki prensip devrede olacak. Reagen Retro<\/p>\n

Se\u00e7im sonras\u0131 elektrik i\u00e7in k\u00f6m\u00fcr \u00fcreten<\/a> Foresight Energy hisseleri %24, d\u00fcnyan\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck k\u00f6m\u00fcr \u00fcreticisi Peabody Energy hisseleri de %50 artt\u0131. Dakota Access ham petrol boru hatt\u0131n\u0131 yapmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan Energy Transfer Partners hisseleri %11 de\u011fer kazanm\u0131\u015f. %50 ye inanamad\u0131m<\/a>, ger\u00e7ekten artm\u0131\u015f. Noble grup<\/a> hisseleri de %12.6 artm\u0131\u015f<\/p>\n

Bak\u0131r d\u00fcn %8.1 de\u011fer kazand\u0131.<\/a> Trump\u2019un altyap\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 artt\u0131raca\u011f\u0131m demesi kur\u015fun, \u00e7inko, al\u00fcminyum fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 da artt\u0131rd\u0131. \u015eilili bak\u0131r i\u015fletmecisi Antofagasta\u2019n\u0131n de\u011feri %19, Vedanta, Hindistanl\u0131 baz metal \u00fcreticisi %13 de\u011fer kazand\u0131. Nikel ve \u00c7inko 2.3% artt\u0131.<\/p>\n

Avustralyal\u0131 senat\u00f6r Malcolm Roberts,Prof Tim Ball<\/a> ve blogger Tony Heller<\/a> ile iklim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011finin insan kaynakl\u0131 olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 iddia ediyorlar. Arg\u00fcmanlar<\/a>: Son \u0131s\u0131nmalar, El Nino\/La Nina iklim fenomenin do\u011fal sonucu; BM paneli, \u00f6zellikle do\u011fal etkenleri g\u00f6z ard\u0131 etti; atmosferdeki CO2 volkanlardan olabilir, ayn\u0131 kimyasal imzay\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131yorlar vs.<\/p>\n

Tek bir viruse bula\u015fm\u0131\u015f ak\u0131ll\u0131 amp\u00fcl ile ZigBee kablosuz sistemi ile t\u00fcm di\u011fer lambalar\u0131 da kontrol alt\u0131na almak \u201cZigBee chain reaction\u201d konusundaki bilimsel \u00e7al\u0131\u015fma<\/a> ve videolar. Termostatlar\u0131<\/a> ele ge\u00e7iren rehin alan yaz\u0131l\u0131mlar (ransomware). IoT(nesne interneti)\u2019ne<\/a> d\u00fczenleme gerekiri savunan bir yaz\u0131, linkleri iyi.<\/p>\n

\u00d6ng\u00f6r\u00fc modellerinin<\/a> hem en tekni\u011fi hem de en veri odakl\u0131 olan\u0131n\u0131n yanl\u0131\u015f \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 istatistiksel modeller anlam\u0131nda da soru i\u015faretleri do\u011furdu. Model, modelcinin e\u011filimini(bias)\u2019\u0131n\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131r, ama modellerin s\u00fcr\u00fc psikolojisine d\u00fc\u015fmesi ilgin\u00e7<\/p>\n

Avrupada do\u011fal gazl\u0131 ula\u015ft\u0131rma<\/a> sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde, en \u00e7ok halka a\u00e7\u0131k CNG istasyonu Bel\u00e7ika (100) ve \u00c7ek (200) Cumhuriyeti. CNGli binek ara\u00e7 Mercedes 200c, 700km ile 33,000 \u20ac civar\u0131nda.<\/p>\n

ABD Enerji bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n Ulusal Laboratuvarlar\u0131<\/a> ABD inovasyon sisteminin \u00e7ekirde\u011fi. 17 laboratuvar, 14 milyar $ b\u00fct\u00e7eye sahip. Laboratuvarlar\u0131n, kendi belirledi\u011fi(LDRD) ara\u015ft\u0131rma sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 di\u011fer ara\u015ft\u0131rmalara g\u00f6re 4 kat daha fazla icat \u00e7\u0131karm\u0131\u015f.<\/p>\n

Hindistan<\/a> 21 n\u00fckleer reakt\u00f6r ile \u00fclke kurulu g\u00fcc\u00fc 290,000 MW\u2019\u0131n %5.8\u2019ine kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k geliyor. Santrallerin ortalama b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc, d\u00fcnya ortalamas\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7ok alt\u0131nda (k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck kapasiteli reakt\u00f6rler). Bunun sebebi de 10larca y\u0131l s\u00fcren ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z bir geli\u015fim (d\u00fcnyadan nispeten kopuk).<\/p>\n

AB<\/a> mesken t\u00fcketicilerinin ortalama gaz faturas\u0131<\/a> 2015\u2019te %4.2 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc.<\/p>\n

Avrupa Komisyonu Kas\u0131m sonunda \u201cwinter package\u201d\/k\u0131\u015f paketi<\/a> ile Avrupa elektrik piyasa reform \u00f6nerilerini yay\u0131nlayacak. Yenilenebilirlere devlet deste\u011fi, arz g\u00fcvenli\u011fi, d\u00fczenlemeye tabii fiyatlar, enerji verimlili\u011fi ve kapasite mekanizmalar\u0131 yer alacak. \u00d6zellikle AB geneline hitap eden bir kapasite mekanizmas\u0131 yasal \u00e7er\u00e7evesi bekleniyor.<\/p>\n

2015\u2019te ABD k\u00f6m\u00fcr<\/a> \u00fcretimi %10, t\u00fcketimi %13, maden istihdam\u0131 da %12 d\u00fc\u015fm\u00fc\u015f<\/p>\n

\u0130statistik<\/b><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Rusya\u2019da gaz<\/a> \u00fcretimi\/\u015firketlere g\u00f6re:<\/p>\n

    \n
  1. Gazprom 406 bcm<\/li>\n
  2. Novatek 52 bcm<\/li>\n
  3. Rosneft 42,3 bcm<\/li>\n
  4. Lukoil 18,8 bcm<\/li>\n
  5. Gazprom Neft 12,5<\/li>\n
  6. Surgutneftegaz 9,5<\/li>\n
  7. Arktikgaz 23.6 (2012\u2019de 1.7 ymi\u015f)<\/li>\n
  8. Di\u011fer 68.8 bcm<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    Rusya\u2019da gaz t\u00fcketiminin da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131 (mtce kullanm\u0131\u015flar mtek = milyon ton k\u00f6m\u00fcr e\u015fde\u011feri)<\/p>\n

    T\u00fcketim: Elektrik (261.9), Sanayi (66), Konut(58.9), Gaz ta\u015f\u0131ma (35.8), di\u011ferleri (119.6) , TOPLAM 542<\/p>\n

    Rusya\u2019n\u0131n d\u00fcnya LNG pazar\u0131ndaki pay\u0131 %4 = 14.5 bcm, %70\u2019i Japonya\u2019ya gidiyor, %25\u2019i koreye<\/p>\n

    Rus ta\u015fk\u00f6m\u00fcr\u00fc destinasyonlar\u0131nda T\u00fcrkiye 6. S\u0131rada (9.8 milyon ton). Kore 21.7 mton, \u0130ngiltere 17.2, \u00c7in 16.4 mton<\/p>\n

     <\/p>\n

    Grafik<\/b><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

    Rusya\u2019n\u0131n do\u011fal gaz rezervlerinin<\/a> yerleri<\/p>\n

    Hindistan\u2019\u0131n Mevcut ve Planlad\u0131\u011f\u0131<\/a> N\u00fckleer Elektrik santralleri.<\/p>\n

     <\/p>\n

    Makale \u00d6zetleri<\/b><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

    Elektrifikasyon ve Refah,<\/a> Nature Energy, Karnamadakala Rahul Sharma ve Gabriel Chan<\/b><\/span><\/p>\n

    Baz\u0131 metriklere g\u00f6re 2005\u2019te Hindistan\u2019daki k\u00f6ylerin %74\u00fcnde elektrifikasyona sahip iken, 2013\u2019te %94\u2019e \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015f durumda. IEA g\u00f6re ise 2013\u2019te hala 237 milyon Hintlinin elektri\u011fe eri\u015fimi yok<\/span><\/p>\n

    Peki politika yap\u0131c\u0131lar universal elektrik eri\u015fimini nas\u0131l anlayarak ilerlemeliler? Burada baz\u0131 sorunlar var<\/span><\/p>\n

      \n
    1. K\u0131rsal alanlarda veri toplamak olduk\u00e7a zor<\/span><\/li>\n
    2. Mevcut veri tutars\u0131z olabilir ve servis kalitesini \u00f6l\u00e7m\u00fcyor olabilir<\/span><\/li>\n
    3. Ayr\u0131ca potansiyel kullan\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n neye de\u011fer verdi\u011fi tam olarak anla\u015f\u0131lm\u0131\u015f de\u011fil<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

      Bunun i\u00e7in elektri\u011fe eri\u015fimin de\u011fi\u015fik boyutlar\u0131n\u0131n bir araya getirildi\u011fi bir \u00e7er\u00e7eve olarak \u201cGlobal Tracking Framework (GTF)\u201d D\u00fcnya Bankas\u0131 ve BM taraf\u0131ndan ba\u015flat\u0131ld\u0131. Elektri\u011fin ula\u015f\u0131labilmesi (maddi olarak\/affordability), kapasite, voltaj kararl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131, g\u00fcvenilirli\u011fi, yasall\u0131\u011f\u0131, sa\u011fl\u0131k ve g\u00fcvenlik boyutlar\u0131 ele al\u0131n\u0131yor ve 0\u2019dan 5\u2019e kadar de\u011ferlendiriliyor.<\/span><\/p>\n

      GTF ile ilgili 8568 g\u00f6sterge meskende bir anket yap\u0131ld\u0131. S\u00fcre(g\u00fcnde elektrik verilen s\u00fcre), g\u00fcvenilirlik (beklenmedik elektrik kesintisi olan g\u00fcnlerin azl\u0131\u011f\u0131), voltaj kararl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 (d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck voltaj sorunlar\u0131 olan g\u00fcnlerin azl\u0131\u011f\u0131) gibi kritik parametrelere bak\u0131ld\u0131.<\/span><\/p>\n

      En \u00e7ok s\u00fcrenin standart sapma kadar de\u011fi\u015fiminin(6.5 saat), elektrikten memnuniyet oran\u0131n\u0131 0.4 standart sapma de\u011fi\u015ftirdi\u011fi bulundu.<\/span><\/p>\n

      Asl\u0131nda kesinti olmamas\u0131, ar\u0131za yerine kullan\u0131c\u0131lar daha fazla s\u00fcre elektrik hizmetine de\u011fer veriyorlar. <\/span><\/p>\n

      \u00c7al\u0131\u015fmada (Nature Energy\u2019nin \u00f6nceki say\u0131s\u0131ndaki bir makale ile ilgili), elektri\u011fe eri\u015fimin faydalar\u0131ndan dem vurulurken, maliyetlere vurgu yap\u0131lmad\u0131. <\/span><\/p>\n

      Ayr\u0131ca \u00e7iftli sistem modelleri de g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne al\u0131nmal\u0131. D\u00fc\u015f\u00fck g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc (dc)do\u011fru ak\u0131m hatlar\u0131 geleneksel alternatif ak\u0131m hatlarla birlikte kullan\u0131labilir, bu da g\u00fc\u00e7 kesintisi gerekti\u011finde dc hatlar\u0131n toplam g\u00fcc\u00fcn %10\u2019unu sa\u011flayarak d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ev aletlerini \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131rabilmesini sa\u011flar.<\/span><\/p>\n

       <\/p>\n

      Tarih<\/b><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

      28 Nisan 1975 \u2013 Newsweek<\/a> \u2013 The cooling world<\/p>\n

       <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

      Word: https:\/\/drive.google.com\/open?id=0B3RIv3pMNaTdMDVNeFI0V3I4UVU Trump sonras\u0131 petrol hari\u00e7 di\u011fer emtia fiyatlar\u0131 ve firma de\u011ferleri y\u00fckseldi Peabody %50 y\u00fckselmi\u015f, en b\u00fcy\u00fck k\u00f6m\u00fcr \u00fcreticisi, inanamad\u0131m, ger\u00e7ekten %50. AB winter package\u2019daki reform \u00f6nerilerini bekliyoruz. ACER\u2019in AB piyasa raporu da ilgin\u00e7. \u00c7in r\u00fczgar hedefini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrd\u00fc. Nature Energy makalesinde, enerjiye eri\u015fimde g\u00fcnl\u00fck verilen elektrik s\u00fcresinin kesinti miktar\u0131ndan \u00f6nemli oldu\u011fu tart\u0131\u015f\u0131lm\u0131\u015f, elektri\u011fe eri\u015fimin … Continue reading 10 Kas\u0131m 2016<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/barissanli.com\/eak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/169"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/barissanli.com\/eak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/barissanli.com\/eak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/barissanli.com\/eak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/barissanli.com\/eak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=169"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/barissanli.com\/eak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/169\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":170,"href":"https:\/\/barissanli.com\/eak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/169\/revisions\/170"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/barissanli.com\/eak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=169"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/barissanli.com\/eak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=169"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/barissanli.com\/eak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=169"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}