{"id":1655,"date":"2018-01-05T17:44:05","date_gmt":"2018-01-05T17:44:05","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/barissanli.com\/eak\/?p=1655"},"modified":"2018-01-05T17:44:05","modified_gmt":"2018-01-05T17:44:05","slug":"5-ocak-2018","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/barissanli.com\/eak\/2018\/01\/5-ocak-2018\/","title":{"rendered":"5 Ocak 2018"},"content":{"rendered":"

Petrol fiyatlar\u0131 daha da artar \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc stoklar s\u0131k\u0131\u015fla\u015ft\u0131, Venez\u00fcella, \u0130ran gibi konular var; Petrol fiyatlar\u0131 artmaz \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc stoklar tekrar artacak, \u015feyl gelecek. \u0130ki ayr\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f. 1 Ocak sabah 06:00’da Almanya’da elektri\u011fin %100’\u00fc yenilenebilirden. \u0130ngiltere 2025’te k\u00f6m\u00fcrden \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor, AFV(alternatif yak\u0131t ara\u00e7lar) 2019’da dizel sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 yakalayabilir. Endonezya 2018’de 264 LNG kargosu hedefliyor. Kutup vortexleri daha g\u00f6r\u00fclmeye devam eder. Uzakdo\u011fu piyasas\u0131nda Suudilerin bo\u015flu\u011funu Irak ve Rusya dolduruyor. \u0130talya’dan Berkay Alpagut 12 Aral\u0131k 2017’de \u0130talya gaz operat\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fc acil duruma ge\u00e7iren olay dizinini yazd\u0131<\/p>\n

12 Aral\u0131k 2017’de ne oldu? <\/b>Berkay Alpagut<\/p>\n

Berkay \u0130talya’da do\u011falgaz sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yor. Yazd\u0131klar\u0131 tamamen kendi g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fleri\/fikirleridir, hi\u00e7bir kurumu ba\u011flamaz. Ama san\u0131r\u0131m 12 Aral\u0131k’ta \u0130talya’y\u0131 acil durum s\u00fcrecini ondan \u00f6\u011frenmek en do\u011frusu:<\/p>\n

12 Aral\u0131k 2017, Avrupa enerji piyasalar\u0131 i\u00e7in olduk\u00e7a enteresan ge\u00e7ti. \u0130lk \u00f6nce Baumgarten\u2019de kapasite art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131 s\u0131ras\u0131nda ger\u00e7eklesen patlama ve ard\u0131ndan \u0130sko\u00e7ya\u2019daki boru hatt\u0131 \u00e7atla\u011f\u0131 Avrupa gaz piyasalar\u0131nda ciddi etkiler yaratt\u0131. Baumgarten\u2019deki patlamadan en \u00e7ok etkilenen \u015f\u00fcphesiz ki \u0130talyan gaz piyasas\u0131 oldu. Patlaman\u0131n ard\u0131ndan Baumgarten\u2019deki b\u00fct\u00fcn boru hatt\u0131 operasyonlar\u0131n\u0131n durulmas\u0131, \u0130talya\u2019n\u0131n ana ithalat hatt\u0131 olan ve \u00e7o\u011funlukla Rus gaz\u0131n\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131yan TAG Boru Hatt\u0131n\u0131n (1-11 Aral\u0131k tarihleri bakarsak \u0130talyan g\u00fcnl\u00fck gaz sistemine giren gazin y\u00fczde 35\u2019ini sa\u011flayan hat) g\u00fcnl\u00fck ak\u0131m\u0131n 109 mmk(mmk=milyon m3)\u2019ten 24 mmk\u2019e d\u00fc\u015fmesine sebep oldu. Buna ek olarak Almanya\u2019daki TENP Boru Hatt\u0131nda devam eden bakim \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131 sebebiyle, \u0130talya\u2019ya \u0130svi\u00e7re \u00fczerinden gelen hatt\u0131n da sadece yar\u0131 kapasitesini kullan\u0131labilmesi de eklenince Kuzey Deniz\u2019i ve Hollanda gazinin sistem i\u00e7in yeterli olmayaca\u011f\u0131 biliniyordu.<\/p>\n

PSV(\u0130talyan Do\u011falgaz Hub\u2019\u0131) de g\u00fcn i\u00e7i fiyatlar en y\u00fcksek 80\u20ac\/mwh\u2019e kadar \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 ve sistemde 69 mmk\u2019lik eksik(short) olmas\u0131 Ekonomik Kalk\u0131nma Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ola\u011fan\u00fcst\u00fc hal karar\u0131 almas\u0131na sebep oldu. Bu karar \u0130talya\u2019daki do\u011falgaz depolama tesislerindeki kullan\u0131m(withdrawl) \u00fcst sinirinin(6-20 Aralik tarihleri aras\u0131 g\u00fcnl\u00fck 1000 GWs) kalkmas\u0131, sistem operat\u00f6r\u00fc Snam\u2019\u0131n tedarik\u00e7ilerin(shipper) Cezayir ve Libya\u2019dan gelen hatlarda kapasite kontratlar\u0131ndan fazla gaz getirmesine herhangi bir ceza vermemesinin onunu a\u00e7t\u0131. Sistem operat\u00f6r\u00fc Snam\u2019\u0131n dengeleme borsas\u0131ndan yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 al\u0131mla beraber ertesi gun (13 Aral\u0131k) sistem 22 mmk\u2019luk fazla(long) verdi. Ayrica gece yarisi TAG Boru Hatt\u0131n\u0131n tekrar operasyona al\u0131nmas\u0131yla beraber sistem ve gaz piyasas\u0131 normal seviyelerine dondu. Ki\u015fisel fikrim \u015fudur ki bu ola\u011fan\u00fcst\u00fc g\u00fcn bizlere do\u011falgaz depolama kapasitelerinin ve g\u00fczergah \u00e7e\u015fitli\u011finin ne kadar k\u0131ymetli oldu\u011funu hat\u0131rlatt\u0131. Ayr\u0131ca pazar ekonomisinin bu t\u00fcr s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131l\u0131 s\u00fcre\u00e7lerin \u00fcstesinden gelebildi\u011fini g\u00f6stermi\u015f oldu.<\/p>\n

\u00d6zetler<\/b><\/p>\n

Almanya<\/a> 1 Ocak sabah 6:00’da t\u00fcm elektri\u011fini yenilenebilirden \u00fcretti. T\u00fcm sene %36.1 ortalama. 2016’ya g\u00f6re %3.8 art\u0131\u015f. Emisyon cephesi hala tart\u0131\u015fmal\u0131<\/p>\n

Petrol fiyatlar\u0131<\/a> neden tekrar ay\u0131 taraf\u0131na d\u00f6nebilir? Destek seviyelerinde tutunamayabilir, ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcme var ama \u00c7in b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi yava\u015flayacak. Fiyatlar\u0131n y\u00fckselme sebeplerinden stoklar\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc durabilir. \u015eeylde de yat\u0131r\u0131mlar geri geliyor.<\/p>\n

Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc ABD y\u00f6netimi ABD (OCS)d\u0131\u015f k\u0131ta sahanl\u0131\u011f\u0131nda <\/a>Arktik, Atlantik ve Pasifikte en \u00e7ok alanda arama izni i\u00e7in tasla\u011f\u0131 payla\u015ft\u0131. \u0130\u00e7i\u015fileri bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 OCS’nin %90’\u0131nda 47 a\u00e7\u0131k artt\u0131rma yapacak.<\/p>\n

Emtia fiyatlar\u0131<\/a> k\u00fcresel krizden bu yana en y\u00fcksek imalat aktivitesi ile u\u00e7u\u015fa ge\u00e7ti. 3 y\u0131l\u0131n en \u00fcst seviyesinde. Energy Aspects’e g\u00f6re ise “petrol piyasas\u0131 gittik\u00e7e s\u0131k\u0131la\u015f\u0131yor ve h\u0131zl\u0131ca s\u0131k\u0131la\u015f\u0131yor [heryerde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc talep g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz]”. GS’ye g\u00f6re k\u00fcresel ekonomi 2018’de %4 b\u00fcy\u00fcr.<\/p>\n

Suudi Arabistan OPEC anla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 ayakta tutmak i\u00e7in uzak do\u011fuya<\/a> petrol sevkiyat\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrd\u00fck\u00e7e bo\u015flu\u011fu Irak ve Rusya doldurmu\u015f. Irak’\u0131n \u00c7in’e ihracat\u0131 1 mv\/g’\u00fc buldu. \u00dcretimi 4.39 mv\/g. Nas\u0131l oldu? D\u00fc\u015f\u00fck fiyatla, Basrah light’\u0131 Dubai’ye g\u00f6re 25cent\/v d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck satm\u0131\u015f. Bir de tatl\u0131 petrol.<\/p>\n

\u0130ngiltere’de alternatif yak\u0131tl\u0131 ara\u00e7lar (AFV)’ler <\/a>May\u0131s 2019 gibi dizel ara\u00e7 sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 ge\u00e7ebilir.<\/p>\n

Endonezya<\/a> 2018’de herbiri yakla\u015f\u0131k 150,000 m3 LNG i\u00e7eren 264 kargo satmay\u0131 planl\u0131yor (SKKMigas). 144’\u00fc Bontang, 120si Tangguh LNG terminallerinden. 2017’de 80-150,000 m3l\u00fck 287 kargo g\u00f6nderdiler.<\/p>\n

Almanya’da<\/a> dizel ara\u00e7 kay\u0131tlar\u0131 2016’daki %45.9’dan 2017’de %38.8’e d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc.<\/p>\n

ABD’de bu haftaki so\u011fuk 3 sene \u00f6nce do\u011fu kesimi etkileyen mekanizma ile ayn\u0131: Polar vortex. <\/a>Kutuptaki buzullar eridik\u00e7e, Arktik okyanusu \u0131s\u0131n\u0131yor, \u0131s\u0131nd\u0131\u00e7a \u00fcst\u00fcnde d\u00f6nen kutup vortex’i a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 kay\u0131yor. Yani daha \u00e7ok g\u00f6r\u00fcr\u00fcz analizi.<\/p>\n

Dong(Danish oil and natural gas) enerji ismini Orsted’e<\/a> \u00e7evirmi\u015fti, 19.yy da ya\u015fam\u0131\u015f Danimarkal\u0131 bilim adam\u0131 Hans Christian Orsted’in akrabalar\u0131 dava a\u00e7acaklar. \u015eirket Danimarka’n\u0131n de\u011fer a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan 4.b\u00fcy\u00fck \u015firketi. Akrabalar Orsted’in ticari i\u015flerden uzak ve ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n

Grafikler<\/b><\/p>\n

Almanya’n\u0131n t\u00fcm elektri\u011fini yenilenebilir’den \u00fcretti\u011fi an 1 Ocak 2018 06:00 (Clean Energy Wire<\/a>)<\/p>\n

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Petrol fiyatlar\u0131 daha da artar \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc stoklar s\u0131k\u0131\u015fla\u015ft\u0131, Venez\u00fcella, \u0130ran gibi konular var; Petrol fiyatlar\u0131 artmaz \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc stoklar tekrar artacak, \u015feyl gelecek. \u0130ki ayr\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f. 1 Ocak sabah 06:00’da Almanya’da elektri\u011fin %100’\u00fc yenilenebilirden. \u0130ngiltere 2025’te k\u00f6m\u00fcrden \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor, AFV(alternatif yak\u0131t ara\u00e7lar) 2019’da dizel sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 yakalayabilir. Endonezya 2018’de 264 LNG kargosu hedefliyor. Kutup vortexleri daha g\u00f6r\u00fclmeye devam … Continue reading 5 Ocak 2018<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/barissanli.com\/eak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1655"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/barissanli.com\/eak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/barissanli.com\/eak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/barissanli.com\/eak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/barissanli.com\/eak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1655"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/barissanli.com\/eak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1655\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1657,"href":"https:\/\/barissanli.com\/eak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1655\/revisions\/1657"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/barissanli.com\/eak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1655"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/barissanli.com\/eak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1655"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/barissanli.com\/eak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1655"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}