{"id":1078,"date":"2017-07-06T18:33:06","date_gmt":"2017-07-06T18:33:06","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/barissanli.com\/eak\/?p=1078"},"modified":"2017-07-06T20:35:34","modified_gmt":"2017-07-06T20:35:34","slug":"6-temmuz-2017","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/barissanli.com\/eak\/2017\/07\/6-temmuz-2017\/","title":{"rendered":"6 Temmuz 2017"},"content":{"rendered":"

Serkan’\u0131n hafta ortas\u0131 stok raporu a\u015fa\u011f\u0131da, ABD stoklar\u0131nda ciddi bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f oldu. Bug\u00fcn iki \u00f6nemli rapor vard\u0131. BNEF’in Elektrikli Araba G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc ve IGU’nun do\u011falgaz toptan sat\u0131\u015f anketi. BNEF raporunu tweeterdan payla\u015fanlar\u0131n grafik ve \u00f6nemli k\u0131s\u0131mlar\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131da. IGU raporu asl\u0131nda %1.5 petrol endeksli kontrat art\u0131\u015f\u0131. IMO karar\u0131 sonras\u0131 3-4 mv\/g a\u011f\u0131r k\u00fck\u00fcrtl\u00fc denizcilik yak\u0131t\u0131 kullan\u0131lamaz olabilir. Tesla’n\u0131n piyasa de\u011feri GM’in alt\u0131na d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc, bu hafta 9 milyar$ de\u011fer kaybetti. Meksika h\u00fck\u00fcmeti \u00fcretimini hedgeledi mi, spreadlerden anlayabiliriz, yaz\u0131 \u00e7ok iyi. Grafikler BNEF ve IGU raporlar\u0131ndan<\/p>\n

Hafta ortas\u0131 Petrol yorumu<\/strong><\/p>\n

Serkan \u015eahin’in hafta ortas\u0131 petrol stoklar\u0131 yorumu:<\/p>\n

“EIA ham petrol stoklarinda 6.3 milyon varillik bir dusus var ki 26 Subat’tan beri yasanan en yuksek haftalik dusus. Cushing stoklari surekli dususunu devam ettirdi ve Kasim 2016’dan beri ilk kez 60 milyon varilin altina dustu. PADD2 rafineri kullanim orani da toparladi ve %96.9 oldu. PADD 2’deki bu hareketlenme ile beraber motor gasoline stoklarindaki dususun etkisi PADD3’de de gorulmus gibi. PADD3 benzin stok artisi bence onemsiz. Rafinerilerin talebe guveninin gostergesi bence. PADD 3 rafineri kullanim orani buna destek olmus.<\/p>\n

ABD’deki toplam dogalgaz sivisi stoklarindaki artis (Propane ve Propylane de dahil) Teksas’taki uretim faliyetlerinin bir sonucu. Onceleri PADD1 destekli olurdu bu artis, simdi iyice PADD3’e kaymis gibi. Bu da Teksas’taki petrol kule sayisindaki artisin aslinda gaz talebi destekli oldugunun guzel bir ornegi.”<\/p>\n

“Buradaki gorusler tamamen yazarin kendi gorusleri olup Thomson Reuters ve bagli kuruluslari kesinlikle baglamaz ve goruslerini yansitmaz.”<\/p>\n

Haberler<\/strong><\/p>\n

OPEC<\/a> ham petrol \u00fcretimi son iki ayda 500,000 v\/g, May\u0131s\u2019a g\u00f6re 220,000 v\/g artt\u0131 ve 32.49 mv\/g\u2019e ula\u015ft\u0131, limitin 600,000 v\/g \u00fczerinde.Irak limitini 100,000 v\/g a\u015ft\u0131, \u0130ran limitte 3.8 mv\/g. Nijerya ve Libya\u2019n\u0131n toplam \u00fcretimi ekime g\u00f6re 380,000 v\/g yukar\u0131da.<\/p>\n

\u00c7in-Pakistan ekonomik koridoru<\/a> (CPEC), ama\u00e7lar\u0131ndan biri de Sincan\u2019daki Ka\u015fgar\u2019dan Pakistan\u2019\u0131n G\u00fcney Belucistan\u2019daki Gwadar liman\u0131na 3200 km\u2019lik ticaret ve enerji yolunu a\u00e7mak. \u00c7in 35 milyar $ enerji projesi yat\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 yapt\u0131 Pakistan\u2019da, santraller, boru hatt\u0131 vs. 2018 sonuna 10,400 olmak \u00fczere 17,000 MW santral var<\/p>\n

2040\u2019da yollardaki arabalar\u0131n %33\u2019\u00fc, sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n %54 elektrikli<\/a> olacak ve 8mv\/g petrol talebini azaltacak. 2016\u2019daki 700,000 elektrikli araba sat\u0131\u015f\u0131, 2021\u2019de 3 milyona \u00e7\u0131kacak.Avrupadaki araba sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n %5i elektrik olacak.<\/p>\n

Tesla<\/a> bu hafta 9 milyar $ de\u011fer kaybetti. Volvo a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131, artmayan \u00fcretim, ve Model S sedan\u2019\u0131n \u00e7ar\u011f\u0131lma testlerinde en y\u00fcksek puan\u0131 alamamas\u0131… GM\u2019n\u0131n alt\u0131na d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc tekrar \u015firket de\u011ferlemesi<\/p>\n

Uluslararas\u0131 Denizcilik \u00d6rg\u00fct\u00fc <\/a>(IMO) karar\u0131n\u0131n rafinerilere etkisi: D\u00fcnyadaki denizcilik yak\u0131tlar\u0131n\u0131n %90\u2019\u0131 %3.5 k\u00fck\u00fcrt, bu da 3-4 mv\/g HSFO(y\u00fcksek k\u00fck\u00fcrt fuel oil). IMO %0.5\u2019e d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrecek.<\/p>\n

EA<\/a>(elektrkli arabalarda), lityum talebi 2016\u2019da 21 Gwh\u2019den 2030\u2019da 1300 Gwh\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kacak. 2021\u2019de 270 Gwh b\u00fcy\u00fck elektrik pili \u00fcretim tesisi (LG Chem, Samsun SDI, Lishen, CATL, Tesla) olacak. EA\u2019lar\u0131n elektrik talebi 2016\u2019daki 6 Twh\u2019dan 2040\u2019dakki 1800 Twh\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kacak, bu da 2040\u2019daki k\u00fcresel elektrik talebinin %5i.<\/p>\n

Meksika<\/a> petrol \u00fcretimini nas\u0131l korumaya al\u0131yor? Elektrik piyasas\u0131ndan \u00f6rnekle anlat\u0131l\u0131yor. Maya tipi petrol 3 ham petrol t\u00fcr\u00fc ve 1 fuel oil ile formulize ediliyor. Ama Lousiana Light (LLS) ile koreleli. E\u011fer spreadlerde bir farkl\u0131la\u015fma olursa, bu Meksika\u2019n\u0131n piyasaya girip opsiyon ald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterir.<\/p>\n

Venez\u00fcella\u2019n\u0131n<\/a> \u00fcretiminin %40\u2019\u0131n\u0131 yapan, petrol ortakl\u0131klar\u0131 anayasa de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi ile devletle\u015ftirilecek. De\u011fi\u015fiklikle %100\u2019\u00fc PdVSA\u2019n\u0131n olacak deniyor. Ortakl\u0131klarda yabanc\u0131 \u015firketler k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck ortakt\u0131.<\/p>\n

Ge\u00e7en sene \u0130ran<\/a> petrol\u00fcn\u00fc \u0130ran\u2019dan BAE\u2019ye ta\u015f\u0131yan 55 gemiden 47\u2019si kimlik bilgisi veren radyo sinyali(AIS)ni kapatt\u0131. Genelde korsan sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 yap\u0131l\u0131yor.. ABD\u2019de bu sinyal kapatan gemilerin pe\u015fine d\u00fc\u015fm\u00fc\u015f.<\/p>\n

Uluslararas\u0131 gaz birli\u011fi<\/a>, 2017 Toptan gaz fiyat anketini yay\u0131nlad\u0131 (resources&data\u2019da \u00fccretsiz).2016\u2019da d\u00fcnyada ortalama toptan sat\u0131\u015f fiyat\u0131 3.35$\/mmbtu. Gaz\u0131n gazla rekabeti, d\u00fcnya talebinin %45\u2019i, petrol fiyat eskalasyonu %20, ge\u00e7en seneye g\u00f6re %1.5 artt\u0131.S\u0131n\u0131r \u00f6tesi gaz-gaz rekatbiti %23\u2019ten %57\u2019ye \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131, 11 y\u0131lda.<\/p>\n

Grafik<\/p>\n

D\u00fcnya elektrikli araba sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 geli\u015fimi tahmini (BNEF<\/a>)<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

D\u00fcnyada gaz fiyat y\u00f6ntemlerinin pay\u0131n\u0131n de\u011fi\u015fimi (IGU) [OPE:petrol, GOG:gaz gaza rekabet)<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Serkan’\u0131n hafta ortas\u0131 stok raporu a\u015fa\u011f\u0131da, ABD stoklar\u0131nda ciddi bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f oldu. Bug\u00fcn iki \u00f6nemli rapor vard\u0131. BNEF’in Elektrikli Araba G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc ve IGU’nun do\u011falgaz toptan sat\u0131\u015f anketi. BNEF raporunu tweeterdan payla\u015fanlar\u0131n grafik ve \u00f6nemli k\u0131s\u0131mlar\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131da. IGU raporu asl\u0131nda %1.5 petrol endeksli kontrat art\u0131\u015f\u0131. IMO karar\u0131 sonras\u0131 3-4 mv\/g a\u011f\u0131r k\u00fck\u00fcrtl\u00fc denizcilik yak\u0131t\u0131 kullan\u0131lamaz olabilir. … Continue reading 6 Temmuz 2017<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/barissanli.com\/eak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1078"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/barissanli.com\/eak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/barissanli.com\/eak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/barissanli.com\/eak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/barissanli.com\/eak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1078"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/barissanli.com\/eak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1078\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1084,"href":"https:\/\/barissanli.com\/eak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1078\/revisions\/1084"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/barissanli.com\/eak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1078"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/barissanli.com\/eak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1078"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/barissanli.com\/eak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1078"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}