Almanyada kiracılara da güneş imkanı ama teşvik 4.3 cent, ABD başkanı 6 yeni enerji planı açıkladı, Libya 1mv/g seviyelerinde. Dijitalleşme fiziksel sektörlere yeni verimlilik getiriyor, optimistlere göre üretkenlik ve istihdam artacak. OPEC tarihte hep kademe kademe piyasaya müdahale ediyor. Hindistanlı GAIL, Cheniere’den aldığı LNG bedelini düşürmeye çalışıyor. Entso-e üretim yeterliliği hesaplayacak. Petrol fiyatlarını neden yanlış tahmin ettik? Ben cevabı göremedim. Çin’in enerji talebi Çin’li thinktank’a göre artık yükselmeyebilir. Eski EIA başkanı bu petrol stoklarınde gürültü yüksek çok fazla gerçekleşen yerine koymayın mesajı veriyor.
Haberler
Libya’nın petrol üretimi son 4 yılın en üst seviyesinde 950,000 v/g. 2011’den önce 1.6 mv/g dü üretimi.
Entso-e, üretim yeterliliği konusunda hem ulusal hem de bölgesel hem de AB’de geçerli bir analiz yöntemi geliştirecek
Dün Trump neler önerdi? Yurtdışı kömür projelerinde finansman kolaylaştırma, açık deniz petrol ve gaz kira programı, nükleeri ayağa kaldırma çalışması, Güney Koreye daha fazla doğalgaz satışı, Louisiana’dan LNG terminali, Meksikaya boru hattı –ama duvarın altından-
Hindistan’daki petrol talebinin %60’ı benzin ve dizel, ham petrolün %80’ini ithal ediyor. Daha fazla LPG planlıyor. 3 stratejik rezervi var 38.8 mv, 2×37 mv’de planlıyor.
Almanyada çatı güneş 4.3 cent/kWh’e kadar sübvansiyon alabilecek. “Kiracı gücü” kanun değişkliği ile güneşten elektriği kiracıların da üretip kullanması sağlanacak. Almanyada konut sahipliği %50, AB’nin en düşüğü. Yılda sadece 500 MW’a verilecek, Almanya’da hacimle limitliyor.
“Sağlık, enerji, ulaştırma” bilişim sektörlerine dönüşüyor (s2), Atomlardan müteşekkil fiziksel sektörlerin fazla düzenlenmesi belki de inovasyonu yavaşlattı, bitlere dayalı dijital sektörler daha az düzenleniyor. Büyük veriyle “Shale 2.0” ABD sahalarında Suudi düşük üretim fiyatlarını yakalayabilir
Düşük petrol fiyatları gelişmekte olan piyasalarda daha düşük maliyet, daha yüksek kazanç oldu
OPEC, 1998-1998’da Asya krizi sonrası 3 kesinti yaptı, 2004-2005’te de Çin büyümesi sebebiyle 6 defa üretim hedefi arttırdı. Yani OPEC hep hareketlerini adım adım yapıyor. Bknz-Grafik
EIA’ın eski başkanı Adam Sieminski’nin de yazarı olduğu makaleden: “API ve EIA’nin çok uğraşmasına rağmen haftalık veriler gürültülü(kesin değil) ve sık sık revize ediliyor, bir yol gösteriyor ama yanılta da bilir”.
Arjantin’in 2025 hedefi elektrikte %20 yenilenebilir. Latin Amerikanın 3.büyük elektrik piyasası. RenovAR programı ile yenilenebilir ihaleleri yaptı, FODER ile de yenilenebilir enerji fonu kurdu. Fiyatlar güneş 5.9 cent, rüzgar 4.9c/kWh.
Goldman Sachs dünki notunda “[petrol fiyatlarını] nasıl bu kadar yanlış tahmin ettik” sorusunda cevap aradı. Hala “varlık sınıfı çok çekici”, muhtemelen dipte yazmışlar. Goldman bakırdaki arz dinamiklerini de yanlış okumuş. Sebebi hurda bakırmış.
Çin’in China Academy of Social Sciences (CASS), Çin enerji talebi zirve yapmış olabilir. “ya bu sene ya gelecek sene”. CASS’ın tahmini Çin’in 2016-2020 enerji planında %2.5 yıllık talep artışı ile çelişiyor.
Hindistan’ın GAIL’in ABDli Cheniere’den aldığı doğalgaz 8.5 $/mmbtu. Asya LNG fiyatları (gemiye yükleme vs) hariç 5.4 $, şu anda uzun dönemli anlaşmalar 6-7 $/mmbtu civarında. GAIL’in LNG müşterileri de düşük fiyat istiyor, ama Cheniere de direniyor.
Tesla ve California’daki enerji depolama şirketleri sistem işletmecisi CAISO’dan PDR (Proxy demand response) kaynağı olarak fazla elektriğin tüketilmesi konusundaki ürünü hızlandırmasını istediler.
“Dijitalleşmenin sürüklediği verimlilikleri enerji, inşaat, ulaştırma ve perakende gibi fiziksel sektörlerinde gözlemlemeye başlıyoruz”. “Ana ekonomik problemimiz , robotların işleri alması değil, robotların sallana sallana gelmesi”. Yazara göre makinelerle daha çok istihdam ve üretkenlik olacak
Dyson (süpürge, el kurutma, fan) İngilteredeki en büyük toprak sahiplerinden ve ailesi ile 7.8 milyar pound zenginliği var. İngiltere’de de tarım desteklerinden en çok yararlanan ikinci şahıs: 1.6 milyarmilyon pound. İngiliz Kraliçesinin tarım arazileri de teşvik alıyormuş ama rakamlar küçük 0.5-1 milyon pound
Grafik
OPEC kademe kademe piyasa müdahalesi yapıyor (Bloomberg)
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