29 Haziran 2017

Yenilenebilirin jeopolitiği bence çok ilginç noktalara sahip. Petrol ve doğalgaz kaynak laneti, büyük yenilenebilir kaynaklara sahip ülkelerde de bir “yenilenebilir laneti”ne sebep olur mu? ABD enerji bağımsızlığından enerji hakimiyetine(dominasyon) geçiyor mu yazısı ince uyarılar ile dolu. Romanya, altın madeninden Kanadalı maden grubu ile tahkimlik, 4.4 milyar $ tazminat. “7 Kız kardeş” şimdi teknoloji şirketlerine verilen isim. Dünyadaki madencilik-petrol-gaz kaynakları doğru yönetilmiyor. Alman otomobil kulübü hemen dizel almayın bekleyin diyor. Goldman Sachs ve diğer bankalar petrol fiyat tahminlerini bayağı bir düşürdüler tekrar. Dallas Fed anketi, özel sorulara göre petrol piyasaları 2018 2.çeyrekte toparlanır. Tüm bunları okurken unutmamak lazım: “uzmanlar sıradan insanlara göre daha çok yanılırlar, önyargılarından dolayı”. Uzmanı uzman yapan yararlı bilgiyi gürültüden ayırabilmesidir. Yani sektör uzmanlarını(banka, analist vs) takip etmeli ama tahminlerini “kabul” olarak almamalı…

Haberler

Yenilenebilirin Jeopolitiği, günün rapor başlığı, petrol ve doğalgaz da olan doğal kaynak lanetinde, büyük yenilenebilir kaynaklara sahip olanlarda da “doğal kaynak laneti” olabilir. 7 mekanizmada jeopolitiği şekillendirme etkisini incelemişler.

ABD’nin enerji politikalarında bağımsızlıktan hakimiyete geçmesine dair eleştiride, piyasa hareketlerinin bunu sağladığı, bazen tek seferlik gelişmelerin hep bu şekilde olacak gibi zannedildiği, çatlatmanın 100$/v ve %10 işsizlikteki etkisi ile 50$/v %5 işsizlikte farklı olacağına dikkat edin diyor.

Şeyl petrol kargolarındaki kalite kararlılığı bir problemmiş. Şeyl tatlı hafif petrol, Ortadoğu’nun ağır ekşi petrolü ile tatlı petrol arasındaki fark daralıyor. Tatlı petrole boğulmuş piyasada rafineriler konfigrasyonları uygun olmasa da tatlı petrolle devam ediyor.

Bu sabah Shell’in Prelude yüzer LNG gemisi, Samsung tersanesinden yola çıktı. Avustralya’daki Prelude açık deniz gaz sahasına gidecek. Bu ilk yıl LNG ihraç etmeyecek, ama 2018’de 3.6 mton/yıl LNG ve 1.7 mton/yıl condensat ve doğalgaz sıvıları ihraç edecek. Haberde geminin resmi de var.

Romanya’nın Rosia Montana altın ve gümüş madeninde 1999’da lisans alan Torontolu Gabriel Resources, ICSID’de Romanya aleyhine 4.4 milyar $ tazminat talepli tahkim davası açtı.

Uber’in iş modeli başta sadece lisanslı taksilerle çalışmak iken, Lyft’in modelini aldı. Ama çalışanlarına kanunları kırmayı öğreten bir iş modeli zaten baştan sakata gelmiş yazı

Alibaba, Alphabet(Google), Amazon, Apple, Facebook, Microsoft ve Tencent(WeChat)’in toplam piyasa değeri 3.5 trilyon $. Bir yıl öncesine göre %40 daha değerli. Ve Economist “7 kız kardeş” demiş.

Goldman Sachs’ta petrol fiyat tahmini düşürdü. Societe Generale’da 2017’yi 52$ (Brent)’e indirdi.

Dünyadaki madencilik-petrol-gaz üreten ülkelerin %80’i kaynaklarını doğru yönetmiyor. 33 ülkedeki 1.5 trilyon $ zenginlik yöneten varlık fonu da doğru yönetilmiyormuş. Şili ve Hindistan’daki devlet şirketleri en iyileri çıkmış.

Dallas Fed’in 2.çeyrek petrol ve gaz enerji anketi yayınlandı. Üretim arttı ama yavaşlama var. Hemen hemen tüm anket göstergeleri bir önceki çeyreğe göre düşüşte. Özel sorulara göre piyasa 2018 çeyrek 2’ten itibaren toparlanmaya başlar ağırlıklı, üretimi arttırmak için kendi nakıt akımlarına bakıyorlar.

Araştırmaya göre 31 E&P(petrol arama üretim) şirketi 2017 üretimlerinin %54’ünü 50$/v üzerine korumaya almış. 2018’de ise 51.5$/v’e sadece %15 üretim korumada. Şeylciler OPEC bir karar daha alırsa hızla hedge-koruma pozisyonlarını arttıracaklar

Almanya’nın AAsı(Cüney Kazokoglu), yani otomobil külubu, dizel alanlara hemen almayın bekleyin, sonbahardaki Euro6D’ler gelsin hele mesaji verdi. “Bir-iki yıl önce araba alanlar halihazırda bir kayıp hissediyor [araba değeri düştüğü için]”

BHP Billiton’un Başkanı Jacques Nasser, 2011’de ABD’de şeyle harcadıkları 20 milyar$’ı zamansız olarak değerlendirdi.

Grafik/istatistk

Dallas Fed, Texas’taki petrolcülere sormuş, piyasa ne zaman dengelenir? (Dallas Fed)

Petrol ve gaz aktivitenizi arttırken finansman artışını nereden sağlıyorsunuz (Dallas Fed)

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  248. After I originally left a comment I appear to have clicked the -Notify me when new comments are added- checkbox and from now on each time a comment is added I receive four emails with the same comment. Is there a way you can remove me from that service? Cheers!

  249. I need to to thank you for this wonderful read!! I certainly enjoyed every bit of it. I have got you book marked to look at new things you post…

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  252. You made some good points there. I checked on the web for additional information about the issue and found most individuals will go along with your views on this site.

  253. May I simply say what a comfort to uncover somebody that truly knows what they are discussing on the net. You certainly realize how to bring a problem to light and make it important. A lot more people ought to read this and understand this side of your story. I was surprised that you aren’t more popular given that you most certainly possess the gift.

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