28 Haziran 2017

Yedekleme, bence buna odaklanmak en iyisi. Siber saldırılardan kimsenin kaçışı kalmadı, Rosneft’te saldırılardan etkilendi.Her bir saldırı ile herkes bunun ne kadar etkili bir araç olduğunu görerek daha fazla bu alana yatırım yapıyor. Brent fazla satılmış olabilir, teknik göstergelere göre. Stok rakamlarına traderlar tepkili (gürültü diyorlar). Almanya’da dizeli kurtarmak için Bakanların liderliğinde Ulusal Dizel Forumu kuruldu. Rüzgar çiftlikleri tehdit altında, gene siber. Yarın Trump enerji konusunda konuşacak, petrol fiyatları tekrar düşebilir. Tesla konuşurken, Çinliler küresel lityum ion pazarında %65 hedef belirledi. Playstation kullanan kömür işletmelerinde çalışabilir ama ABD’de, otonom sistemlerin gerektirdiği insan tipi.

Haberler

ICIS’e göre Hollanda hükümetinin 2017 Groningen gaz üretim tavanını %10 düşürerek 21.6 bcm belirlemesine operatör NAM (Shell ve Exxon da)itiraz etti.

Yeni siber saldırı Rosneft, Chernobyl nükleer tesislerini vurdu. Rusya’nın en büyük ham petrol üreticisi Rosneft, yedekleme sistemi ile üretime geçmiş.

Tulsa Üniversitesinden 2 araştırmcı tüm bir rüzgar çiftliğini hack edebileceklerini bulmuşlar, gerçekte tek türbin durdurmuşlar. Türbinleri paralize etme, aniden frenleri çalıştırma, işletmeye yanlış sinyal gönderme… Hem de Raspberry pi ile..

2018 de devreye girince Tesla Gigafactory yılda 35 GW pil üretecek. Ama dünya lityum pil üretiminin %55’i Çin’de, %10’u ABD’de. Çin payını %65’e çıkarmaya niyetli.

Suudi Arabistan’ın net dış varlıklarının 2017’nin ilk 4 ayında 36 milyar $ düşmesi soruları da beraberinde getirdi. Anlaşıldığı kadarı ile paralar yurt dışında yatırım yapan devlet fonlarına mesela Suudi Kamu Yatırım Fonu (PIF)’na aktarılıyor. Onlarda teknoloji(Softbank), altyapı(Blackstone) vs gibi yerlere yatırım yapıyor.

Emtia tacirlerinin sektörel potansiyel hacmi 70 milyar $. 5 ana oyuncu var. Fakat sayısallaşma tüm bu oyuncuların iş modellerini tehdit ediyor. Daha fazla verimlilik, ucuzluk ve optimizasyon getiriyor.

Teknik göstergelere göre Brent fazla satıldı. Yani çok fazla kısa tarafa geçildi, bunların kapatılması gerekecek. Kısa pozisyonlar Brent’te geçen hafta 169 milyon v, 2011’den beri en yüksek seviye. 2016 kasımda 114 milyon varil kısa pozisyon kapatılırken petrol 12$ artmıştı.

Perşembe günü Trump enerji ile konuştuğunda federal alanlarda petrol sondaj izinlerinleri, açık deniz petrol ve gaz aramacılığı, temiz elektrik planına dayalı düzenlemeleri rahatlatacak mı?

Almanya’da rüzgar üretimi kışın yüksek, yazın düşük. En düşük Haziran olmuş 2016’da.

Petrol fiyatlarındaki düşüş, Merkez Bankalarının işini zorlaştırabilir, manşet enflasyonun düşük kalması sorunu…

Caterpillar’ın madenlerde kullanılan otonom kamyonlarını kullanan Fortescue Metals, %30 üretkenlik artışı görmüş. İşler kömür sektöründe de giderek otonomlaşıyor, Playstation oynayabilen kamyonu idare eder denmiş. Halısaha neyinize yetmiyor…

Nükleer için söylenen “ölçmek için çok ucuz” sözü, aslında fizyon(atom parçalanması) değil füzyon için (güneşteki reaksiyon) için söylendiği de iddia edilmiş. 1954 yılında Atom Enerjisi Komisyonu başkanı Lewis Strauss söylemiş.

Almanlar dizelde karşı atakta “Ulusal Dizel Forumu” ile dizel araçlardaki kirleticilerin azaltılması çalışmalarına [destek] olunacak.

Çin’de Mayıs’ta ortalama LNG liman teslim fiyatı 7.28$/mmbtu olurken, boru hattı ile 5.25 $/mmbtu olmuş. İlk 5 ayda.Çin’in Avustralya’dan aldığı doğalgaz %42.7 artarak 5.39 milyon ton, Katar’dan aldığı da 2.84 milyon ton oldu. Avustralya 6.8 $/mmbtu, Katar 8.95, Malezya 6.49.

Avrupa’da gazda ortakış (boruhattı, depolama vs) varlıklarında 2010-2015 durgunluğu sonrası kıpırdanma başladı. Timera Energy’ye göre çalıştıkları 20 yıl içinde gaz piyasalarının evrimi konusunda bu kadar farklılaşma görmemişler.

Grafik

Çin’in LNG ithalatı ve fiyatlar (TR)

Çin dünya lityum ion pil üretiminin %65’ini hedefliyor.(Bloomberg)

 

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