23 Haziran 2017

Günün haberi, Trump’un Meksika sınırına “güneş duvarı” yapacağını açıklaması ardından Çin güneş üreticilerinin hisselerinin yükselmesi. Rosneft Mısır gazını LNG olarak pazarlama işinde. Yatırım bankaları bugün ayıların tarafında, talep çok artmaz gibi. New York elektrik depolamada hedef belirleyecek. Çin’de toluen talebi de azalıyor, benzine katılan madde, yani benzin talebi de zayıf. Macron’un yüksek karbon fiyatı önerisine Alman danışmanlık şirketi sıcak bakmıyor, elektrik fiyatları %40 artar. Nükleer füzyon 2030’lara kaldı.

Haberler

ABD’nin en büyük yakıt boru hattı sistemi işletmecisi Colonial Pipeline(hat 1:1.3mv/g), ülkenin doğusunda depolanan yakıt fazlalığından, boru hattına talep 6 yılın en altında. ABD güneyinden Kuzey doğusuna yakıt taşıyor.Normalde talep kapasiteyi aşarmış. Boruhattı kapasitesi ticareti piyasası Linespace negatifte.

Eni, Aralık’ta Zohr’un olduğu basendeki hisselerinin %30’unu Rosneft’e 1.6 milyar$’a satmıştı. Rosneft bu Mısır sahasından gaz (LNG) ihraç etmeyi planlıyor.

New York California, Oregon ve Massachusetts’in ardından enerji depolama konusunda hedef belirleyecek dördüncü eyalet olacak. Vali imzalarsa, 1 Ocak 2018’e kadar 2030’a elektrik depolama hedefleri belirlenecek

Küresel petrol talep artışı son 2 yılı yarısı hızında.17Ç2’de 1.1 mv/g oldu. Bank of America (BofA), 17Y2’de ve 2018’de 1.3mv/g talep artışından şüpheli. Çin’de büyüme yumuşuyor olabilir. Korkuları, Çin’in fazla kredi daralması yaptığı ve GSYİH ve ham madde de zayıflama. %1 kredi büyümesi =%0.6 petrol tüketimi değişimi.

Emtia taciri Noble Group’un kredi notu Fitch tarafından B-’de CCC’ye düşürüldü. Javier Blas’a göre CCC “iflas mümkün” anlamına geliyor.

Alman Die Welt’e Fransız Başkanı Macron’un yüksek karbon fiyatı önerisini değerlendiren, Pöyry danışmanlıktan Daniel Wetzel, 30€/ton Alman elektrik fiyatlarını %40 arttırır. Ayrıca Fransa’ya Almanya’ya göre bir rekabetçi avantaj sağlar, Fransa da nükleer+hidro nasıl olsa.

Çin’in yıllık 5-6milyon ton hidrojenize toluen üretimi var. Kömürden kömür zifti oradan ham benzene ordan da toluen üretiyorlar. Ve benzine harmanlanıyor. Çin’de toluen fiyatları 1 yılın dibine düştü, zayıf benzin talebinden.

2000’lerde dünya’da 1 milyar $ GDP için 550v/g petrol ilişkisi matematiksel olarak kuruluyor. ARC’ın GDP vs petrol talebi ilişkisine göre yüksek fiyat dönemlerinde bu 240 v/g’e kadar düştü. 2014 sonrası 360v/g’e hızlandı.

Yüzen stoklar artıyor. Günlük tanker kirası eski VLCC’lerde 16000-19000$/gün. VLCC’de 2 mv.

Nükleer füzyon projesi ITER, tam operasyona 2035’den önce geçemeyecek.

Trump, Meksika ile duvarı güneş panelleri ile donatarak “güneş duvarı” yapacağını açıklayınca, Çinli büyük güneş şirketlerinin değerleri arttı. Yingli Green %5.3 değer kazandı. Gerçekten yaparsa güneşte fiyat düşer.

Karbondioksit’i doğrudan sıvı yakıta çevirme prosesi makalesi [$$ – sadece özeti okuyabildim] Nature Chemistry

Grafik

Bank of America Merrill Lynch – Dünya petrol talep artışı

 

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