22 Haziran 2017

Petrol fiyatlarında karmaşanın sebepleri: Asya stokları ve ABD stokları birlikte hareket etmiyor, fiyatlar düşünce yüzer stoklar doluyor, fiyat azcık artınca hemen stoklar satılıyor, arzı arttırıyor, fiyat düşüyor. Petrol fiyatları ilk yarıda bayağı değer kaybetti ama Temmuz ve sonrası da genel olarak pozitif değil genelde. Zaten pozitif dediğimizde jeopolitik gerginlik olmaz ise 45-50-55$. Gaz geçiş yakıtı olamaz diyen çevreciler, fosil santrallerin para kazanamamasının sebebinin yenilenebilirle alakası yok mesajı, Tesla’nın Çin’deki stratejisi ve açacağını duyuracaği fabrika, çelikte ticaret sınırları neden işe yaramayabilir (çünkü çelik daha çok ürün içinde geliyor), Norveç’in ikilemi, ABD’nin güneş duvarı.

Öneri

Bloomberg’de Çin, ABD ve Dünya çelik ticareti yazısı bugün için çok iyi

Haberler

Arizona’da uçaklar hava sıcaklığı 48.3 C olduğu için kalkmamış. Bombardier tipi uçaklar bu sıcaklıkta yeterli kaldırma sağlamakta zorlanıyor. Airbus ve Boeing’ler için ise 52 C

PJM piyasasındaki fiyat düşüşünün en önemli sebebi gaz fiyatlarındaki düşüş, talep düşüşü ve rüzgar artışı çok daha küçük etki yapmış. Raporda, elektrik piyasasındaki değişimin temel iticisi ne, bu değişim güç sistem güvenirliğini tehdit edecek şekilde mi sistemi etkiliyor. (s63 yeterli)

Doğalgazdan geçiş yakıtı olmaz, daha fazla LNG terminali bizi iklim hedeflerinden uzaklaştırır diyen Climate Action Tracker “gazdan ayağı çekmek” başlıklı bir özet yayınladı.

Eski ABD Enerji bakanı Ernest Moniz’in kurduğu Energy Futures Initiative, düşük karbonlu inovatif bir gelecek için çalışacak.

California ISO, Enerji depolama ve dağıtık enerji kaynakları (ESDER faz2) yayınladı. Normalde talep tarafında büyük tüketiciler için 45 gün geriye bakış, hanelerde 4 gün olacak gibi. Bu sayede talep tarafının perfomansı (gerçekte ne kadar talep kesildiği) hesaplanacak

Tesla’nın Çin’deki gelirleri 2014,2015 ve 2016’da 477 milyon $, 319, 1.1 mlyar $. 2016’daki Çin gelirleri, tüm gelirlerinin %14’ü. Ve Tesla Çin’de fabrika açacağını açıklayacak (Shangai), fiyatlama stratejisi de agresif olabilir.

Dünyada çelikte en yüksek kapasite kullanım oranına Japonya sahip %80 Çin kapatmasına rağmen çok büyük atıl kapasite var. Fakat ABD’nin Çin’e çelikte sınır koyması anlamsız, çünkü çelik değil, işlenmiş ürünlerin içindeki çelik önemli. ABD’de Çin’den bir sürü imal edilmiş ürün alıyor.

Wood Mackenzie, LTO (light tight oil) ABD petrol üretim tahminlerini yukarı çekmiş. Sebebi de sermaye yapısı değişikliği, EOG ve ExxonMobil’in bölgedeki şirket alımları. Ayrıca, ilk üretimi en iyi olan kuyular yerine ortalama kuyuları almışlar, ilk üretimi fazla olanlar, daha hızlı düşüyormuş.

OPEC ikinci kesintileri yapacak ise acele etmeli, çünkü Temmuz’da talep düşmeye başlar, anlaşmalar da genelde iki ay sonra etkiliyor. Temmuzdaki kesinti Eylülde etkisini gösterse geç, şeyl üreticileri de üretim gelirlerini korumaya(hedge) aldıkları için 2018 2.çeyreğe kadar üretime devamç

Norveç, Arktik’te Barents denizinde 93 bloğu ihaleye açtı. Norveç vahşi yaşam fonu (WWF)’den Nina Jensen : “Çevrecilikte lider ülke Norveç ikileminin mükemmel örneği, herkese ne yapacağını söylüyoruz. Fakat bizim için mevcut iş modeli[fosil] bile değil, mevcut iş modelini daha da arttırıyoruz”

ABD Başkanı Trump, Meksika duvarını “güneş duvarı” yapacak böylelikle elektrik üretimi ile yapım masrafını ödeyecek. Duvar 3207 km uzunluğunda olacak. 8-12 milyar$’a mal olması bekleniyor, belki daha fazla. Ama güneş duvarı olursa maliyet ne olur, net değil haberde

Rosneft yönetim kurulunda ilginç insanlar bir arada, BP, eski Exxon CFOsu, Glencore, Katar vs. Rus petrol analistinin yorumu : “petrol tacirleri bir sebep için, BP ve ExxonMobil diğer bir sebep için orda, Güney doğu Asya daki ayak izini genişletme ve LNG işini ilerletecek karakterler”

Grafik

ABD’nin net ham petrol ve petrol ürünleri ticaretinin gelişimi (Sam Ori)

Dünya Çelik ticareti (Bloomberg)

Tarih

İETT’nin 1914’te açılan Metro Han “Elektrik, Tramvay ve Tünel) Sergi – Ameli Elektrik 1926 Kasım

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