21 Haziran 2016

Serkan Şahin’in yorumu stoklardaki düşüşlerle fiyat düşüşleri ne kadar ilgili? Tesla’lar yavaş kullanırsanız 800 km üzeri de yapabiliyor. Düşük hızlarda kullanmak (40km gibi) menzili arttırıyor ama kim ister. Haftaya ABD enerji bakanlığı yenilenebilirlerin şebekeye –sanırım negatif- etkilerini inceleyen bir rapor yayınlayacak. Eski Bakan ise yeni bir oluşum kurdu, kendi şebeke raporunu yazacak. Chevron’un Gorgon gaz sahasındaki CO2’yi tekrar akiferlere basması bu sene başlıyor. Centrica Rough gaz depolamayı kapatmakla kalmıyor, iki de gaz santrali satıyor 2.3 GW 318 milyon pound. Suudi tahtının veliahtı MbS. BMW ve ABD dağıtım şirketi PG&E’nin sonuç raporu yayınlanmış, elektrikli arabaların şebekeye desteği. Brent fiyatında yılın ikinci yarısı genelde birinci yarıdan daha kötü geçiyormuş. Tarihte Ameli Elektrik dergisi 1926 yılı Haziran kapağı -91 yıl olmuş.

Yorum – Serkan Şahin

Aşağıdaki yorum Serkan Şahin’in hafta ortası yorumudur.

“EIA verilerine gore ticari ham petrol stoklarinda 2.45 milyon varillik dusus var. finished motor gasolinedeki 1.48 milyon varillik dusus cok onemli. PADD3’te ticari ham petrol stoklarinda 898,000 varillik yukselme onemli ama bunun buyuk bolumu kondensat muhtemelen. PADD3’teki conventional motor gasoline seviyesinde 936,000 varillik dusus var ama blending components hacmi 2.46 milyon varil artmis. Bu bugunku motor gasoline talebi kaynakli ileriye donuk bir hazirlik gibi.

WTI’in fiyatlandigi Cushing’de stoklar Nisan basindan beri dususte. 61,140 milyon varile kadar dustu. Buna ragmen WTI’daki sert dususu bana kimse Libya ya da Nijerya ile anlatamaz. WTI-Brent spread acilmasi bu duruma ters. Isleri stokla aciklamaya calisirsak da bana kimse bugun veriler aciklandiktan sonraki yarim saatteki CLc1 dususunu anlatamaz. Artik kimsenin piyasa gerceklerine baktigi yok belli ki.”

“Buradaki gorusler tamamen yazarin kendi gorusleri olup Thomson Reuters ve bagli kuruluslari kesinlikle baglamaz ve goruslerini yansitmaz.”

Haberler

Hypermiling yani hipermesafe. Yani elektrikli arabayı daha yavaş ve verimli kullanarak mesafesini arttırmak. Daha önce 35 km/h ile 885 km Tesla Model S ile başarılmış. Belçika’da 26 kmlik bir güzergahda ise 901 km son rekor. Km’de 88 Wh ve 100 Wh başarılmış. İstanbul trafiğinde rekor olur.

Arktik okyanusu daha 10 yıllarca tamamen veya kısmen 7-8 ay buzla kaplı olacak. NSRi Rusyanın Kuzey Denizi güzergahı, Kara Kapısı[Denizde]ndan Bering’e. Yamal’daki LNG’yi dünya piyasalarını ulaştırmak için de 15 bur kıran LNG gemisi (170bin m3) planlanıyor.

İngiliz Bakan Ofgem başkanına mektup yazarak “en kötü tarifede olan tüketicilerin korunması, mikro iş yerlerine adil davranılması ve standart değişken tarife” konularında ne yapacaksın diye uyardı.

Eski ABD enerji bakanı Ernest Moniz, yeni bir kar amacı gütmeyen araştırma kuruluşu kurdu “Energy Futures Initiative” ve ABD şebeke çalışması yapacak. Haftaya ABD Enerji Bakanlığı çalışması şebekenin yenilenebilirle daha güvensiz olduğunu iddia edebilir. Sanki ona karşı bir çalışma olacak Moniz’inki.

Yüzen graphene ile su kaynatma. Suya dökerek güneşe bırakınca %54 verimle buharlaşma sağlıyor. Deniz suyunu arıtmada önemli

Bugün, Japonya’da Honda araba fabrikası WannaCry virüsü yüzünden üretimi durdurdu. Günlük 1000 araç üretiyordu.

Dizel’in ölümü yakın mı? Yazıda yakın, grafikte değil. Sorun tüketici paniğe kapılırsa…

Suudi tahtının varisi MbS, Muhammed bin Salman oldu. 2016 yılına ait mülakat: IMF, Suudi Arabistan’ın 5 yıl yetecek rezervi var desede, Suudi kaynak 2015 Nisan harcama düzeyi ile iki yıl anca demişler, yıllık 80-100 milyar $ verimsiz yatırım yapılıyormuş.

BMW’nin ABD’de PG&E dağıtım şirketi ile i ChangeForward pilot programı 18 ay sürdü. 100 BMW i3’ün şarjını geciktirerek veya eski araba pilleri ile destek sağladı. 209 talep katılımı olayı ile 19500 kWhlik destek sağlandı. OpenADR protokolü kullanıldı. Raporu

Centrica, İngiliz şirket, iki gaz santralini (2.3 GW) 318 milyon pound’a satıyor. Alıcı Çek şirketi EPHnin İngiltere kolu. Centrica anladığımmız kadarı ile daha dağıtık ve yenilenebilir bir geleceğe hazırlanıyor.

Petrol fiyatlarının düşmesinin 5 sebebi: Libya ve Nijerya; OPEC’in yeterli kesinti sözü vermemesi; OECD stok artışları; artan ABD üretimi; spekülatörler umutsuz, uzun kontratları kapatıyor.

Texas’da 1889’da 48 varil, 1894’te 60 varil petrol üretilmiş. 1901 Ocak’ta Spindletop ile üretim hızlandı, Bugün Permian’da 2.5 mv/g petrol üretiliyor.

Mısır’ın gaz üretimi aylık 4 bcm civarı. 2018-19 gibi gaz ihracatçısı oluyor tekrar. Fakat bu arada Mısır, Ürdün ve Pakistan’ın LNG ithalatı artıyor. Fiyata tepki veren Türkiye, Çin ve Hindistan’da daha çok LNG alıyor.

Chevron’un Batı Avustralya’daki 54 milyar $’lık Gorgon projesi, 2 milyar $’lık CCS(karbon yakala&depola) sistemini bu yıl sonunda devreye girecek. Tam kapasitede yılda 3.4-4 milyon ton karbonu yer altında tuzlu su akiferine basacak. İkinci sahadaki gaz üretiminin %14’i CO2, o basılacak.

Grafik

ABD stratejik petrol rezervlerinde düşüş (Bloomberg)

Brent Fiyatların 6aylık performansı – ilk yarılar genelde daha pozitif (Reuters-Amanda Cooper)

Tarih

Ameli Elektrik , 1926 Haziran (PFAME9260601A000)

 

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  244. After I originally left a comment I appear to have clicked the -Notify me when new comments are added- checkbox and now every time a comment is added I recieve four emails with the same comment. Is there an easy method you are able to remove me from that service? Thanks a lot!

  245. The very next time I read a blog, Hopefully it doesn’t disappoint me just as much as this particular one. I mean, Yes, it was my choice to read through, however I truly thought you’d have something interesting to talk about. All I hear is a bunch of whining about something you could possibly fix if you were not too busy seeking attention.

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