19 Haziran 2017

Bu haftaya başlarken, Singapur’da stokların hızlı düşüşü ve Çin’in kotaları ile başladık. Henüz fiyatlanmadı. ABD benzin talebi ise mevsime göre düşük. İngiliz merkez bankası iklim değerlendirmesi yayınladı. Rehin varlıklar yerine “yakılamayacak karbon” terimini kullanmış. Petrol ve gaz izinlerinde California’da bir bölgede tüm bölge için devlet tek bir ÇED yapıp 1122 kuyuya izin vermiş. İngiltere’de paralı üyelikle indirimli elektrik [garantili gibi], tedarikçi değiştirme şirketi yüzdürülmeye çalışıyor, iş modeli ilginç. Nordstream 2’de farklı görüşler ve medya gücü.

Haberler

Geçtiğimiz hafta, WTI %2.4, Brent %1.6 düştü. 4 haftadır arka arkaya fiyat düşüşü Ağustos 2015’ten beri ilk. ABD petrol kule rakamları 6 arttı. 22 haftadır arka arkaya artıyor.

Bu hafta: Salı API petrol tedarik raporu; Çarşamba EIA petrol ve benzin stok raporu; Perşembe ABD doğalgaz stokları; Cuma Baker Hughes ABD petrol kule rakamları

Avrupa komisyonu, gelecek iki yılda yarım milyon avro ile Kayıtzinciri(blockchain) gözlemi kuracak, 2 yıl haber, düzenlemelerden komisyonu haberdar edecek. ESMA, AB finansal otoritesi ise daha erken diyor.AB’de elektrik ve gaz şirketleri PONTON platformu ile süreci başlattı, petrolcüler anlaşamadı.

NordStream 2, Rusya’dan Danimarka, Finlandiya, İsveç münhasır ekonomik bölgelerinden geçiyor. NordStream 2 şirketi AB içindeki farklı görüşleri kendi çıkarına göre kullanıyor. Sorun denizden geçen kısım hangi rejime tabii, interconnector mü, iletim hattı mı, üçüncü gaz paketi ne kadar uygulanır.

Aramco halka arzdan önce, sübvanse ettiği ödemeleri Maliye Bakanlığına devrediyor. Havayolu Saudia ve Saudi Electricity de var.

Çin’in ham petrol ithalat izni 91.7 mton oldu. 2016’da 87.6 mtondu.

İngiliz merkez bankası, bankacılık sektörünü ilgilendiren iklim risklerini değerlendirecek. Daha önce sigorta şirketlerini incelemişti. “yakılamayacak karbon”[unburnable carbon], fosil yakıtlara yatırım ihtiyacı olacak ama karbon bütçesine göre (s7-gri kutu)

1900’lerde 60 saat iş, 10 gün aydınlatma masrafına gelir sağlıyordu. 1920’de 60 saat, 5 aylık aydınlatma karşılığıydı. 1990’da bu 10 yıla çıktı, bugün ise 52 yıl. Geçmişte 54 dakika aydınlatma alan çalışma saati şimdi 52 yıla çıktı. Maliyetler 500,000 kat düştü.

İngiltere’de, tüketicilerin tedarikçi değiştirmesini sağlayan ve bunun için önden 25 pound alan Flipper şirketi kayyuma devredildi. Flipper tüketiciye 50 pound daha az ödeyeceği teklifi arıyor, bulamazsa değiştirmiyordu. İş modeli ilginç

Petrol ve gaz izinlerinde California’da Kern County, tüm bölge için bir çevresel etki raporu (EIR) almış, bu çerçevede 1122 yeni kuyuya izin vermiş. Fakat 3 grup dava açmış, 2 çevreci. Hakimler genelde EIR davalarında eyalete “tekrar çalış” diye geri gönderiyor.

Rosneft, Rusya’nın doğusunda Laptev Denizinde 2305-2363 m petrol buldu. Arktik’te Rosneft’in 28 lisansı var, toplam 34 milyar ton eşdeğer petrol (tep) kaynak, 9.5’i Laptevde

Rusya’da Batı Sibirya’da gaz maliyeti 3.5-4 $/mmbtu, fakat bu sahalarda üretim düşünce, Yamal’da üretim 7-10 $/mmbtu.Arktik’te ise 12-13$/mmbtu. Çin tarafında, Sibirya Gücü boru hattı da 2018 değil 2020-2021’i bulabilir. Çin’in 17 terminalde 75.3 milyar m3/yıl gazlaştırma kapasitesi var.(s56)

Grafik

Dünyanın en büyük 10 Petrol ve gaz şirketi-2015 yılına ait ama güzel (Patricia Schouker)

ABD LNG proje devreye giriş tarihleri (Zain Ullah- European Gas Hub)

Dünyada hava-iklim kaynaklı kayıplar (Bank of England)

 

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