4 Mayıs 2017

Bugün hasar tespiti yapalım. Andurand, Ed Morse ve Baker Institute uzmanlarından petrol fiyatlarının yükseleceği tahminlerini gördük. Neden? Öyle ya da böyle stok erimeleri değişik bölgelerde var, ekonomiler canlı, Çin’deki orta sınıf benzin talebi. Bu ne zaman gelecekti? Normalde sürüş sezonu (Nisan ortası-Mayıs başı) talep artmaya başlardı. Uzmanlar hangi ayı gösterdi? Daha çok 1 Haziran-Temmuz arasını. İran’ın yeterli üretim sağlayamayacağı da arz tarafındaki bir diğer önemli konuydu. OPEC kesintileri ne kadar anlamlıydı? OPEC etkili ama güçlü değil. Aslında kartel olmak çok meşakkatli. 1970’lere kadar ABD’de de petrol fiyatlarını sabit tutmak için kuyu kuyu üretim ve fiyat belirleniyordu ve “askeri kurallarla”. Bugün petrol neden düştü? OPEC’in anlaşamayacak olması, Libya-Irak-Nijerya ve ABD üretimi (İran konuşulmuyor). Hatta Rusların “kesintiye yeşil ışık” haberini bile piyasalar ciddiye almadı. Bunlar görünenler…Riskler neler? Venezüella ile ilgili pozitif haber yok, Suudiler Asya fiyatlarını düşürdü (pazar payı savaşı mı?), Çin verilerinde sorunlar…Aslında Al-Naimi’nin pazar payı savaşı en mantıklısıydı, çünkü hem OPEC üretim düşürmedi, düşüremez diye karizmayı çizdiriyor hem de OPEC ülkelerinden çok ABD, büyük petrol şirketleri (bakınız Q1 gelirler) kazanıyor. Olması gereken bence Al-Naimi stratejisine dönüş, 1 yıl daha düşük fiyatlar ve Suudilerin üretimi arttırarak fiyat düşürmesi, uzun dönemli kazanımları getirir. Peki Venezüella’dan ihracat durursa, yedek kapasite ne kadar? … Neyi atladım? Bugün ki hareket spekülatif ise birileri önümüzdeki günlerde açıklanacak bir veriye önden ulaştı demektir. Hareket bu kadar büyük ise Çin olabilir. Bugün ki ABD’de kızartma yağı çalma haberi de iyiydi…

Haberler

ABD’de kızartma yağı hırsızlığında artış var. Sarı yağ fiyatı %230 arttı, 2000 rafineri biyodizel için bu yağları ya içeriden alacak ya da ithal edecek. Geçen sene 635,000 ton yağ biyodizel oldu. Her yıl 75 milyon $ kızartma yağı yasal olmayan şekilde rafinerilere gidiyor. “Uyuşturucu parası gibi, çalıntı kızartma yağı için gerçek bir piyasa var”. Kilosu 55 cent.

Rusya petrol kesintilerinin uzatılmasından yana. Fakat piyasalar bu haberi bile ciddiye almadı

ABD’de ilk çeyrekte elektrikli araba(EV) satışları %49 artarak 40,700 olurken Avrupa’da 23703’ten 32627’e çıktı. ABD piyasası AB piyasasından toplamda %16 daha büyük. Renault Zoe parladı. EV satışları Almanya’da 2332’den 5060’a çıktı, İngiltere’de %47 ve İspanya’da %45 artış gördü.

Rusya, bu yüzyılda ilk defa Küba’ya büyük oranda petrol gönderdi. 249,000 v kapasiteli Rus tankeri, 10 Mayıs’ta Küba’ya vardı. Venezüellalı PDVSA borcunu ödeyemezse, ABD’deki rafinerisi de Ruslara geçecek. Küba 22,000 v/g dizel ve 140,000 v/g toplam petrol ürünleri tüketiyor.

Petrol bugün feci düştü. “Bu tip piyasaların dibini bulmaya çalışıp yakalamak çok tehlikelidir, düşen bıçağı tutmaya benzer”. Bir sonraki direnç Brent’te 47.20$/v, altına düşerse uzun dönem ayılara bayram

Thames Water şirketi Thames nehrine lağım bırakmakdan 20 milyon pound üzeri ceza aldı. 1989’da halka arz olan şirketi, 2001’de RWE almıştı, 2006’da Çin-Abu Dhabi. Yöneten Avustralyalılar. 15 milyon müşteri, 2.6 milyar litre içme suyu. 2012-2014 arası 1700 olimpik havuz dolusu lağım bırakmış. Yöneten şirket de paraları kar diye dışarı çıkarmış.

Libya, Nijerya, Irak bu üç ülke OPEC ve nOPEC anlaşmasını boşa çıkarabilecek ülkeler. Yazı güzel

Glencore, gıda taciri ABCD dörtlüsü Archer-Daniels-Midland, Bunge, Cargill ve Louis Dreyfus’a katılarak 5. oldu. 2002’De Glencore Agriculture başına eski Cargill yöneticisi geldi. Ya güçlü sanayi bacağın olacak ya da tedarik ayağın çok geniş olacak -sahadan-tüketiciye-. Glencore Agriculture %49’u da emeklilik fonlarında

Grafik

Libya petrol haritası (@chris1reuters)

 

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