25 Mayıs 2017

OPEC kesintiyi uzatıyorum dedi %4 düşüş oldu. Hidrojen depolamaya sıcak bakanlar çok. Şeyldeki verimlilik konusunu servis şirketlerinin fiyatları arttırmaya başladığı zaman tekrar değerlendirmek gerekiyor. Ford’un yeni CEOsunun otonom taraftan gelmes, Almanya’da dizel araba satışlarının %19 düşmesi ilginç. Çin dünyanın en pahalı doğalgazını kullanıyor. Grafikte hangi araba şirketinin satışlarının ne kadarı dizel. ABD dağıtık güneşten 100% faydalanıp, ulaştırma ve ısıtmayı elektrifike de etse, 1990’un %80 seviyesine gelemiyor.

Haberler

Geçen çeyrekte 10 petrol saha hizmet sağlayıcılarından sadece 5’i karlıydı. ABD’de petrol sahası sektöründe 2015 ile Nisan 2017 arası 127 iflas görüldü. Petrol üreticileri üretimi arttırsa da, henüz para akışı hizmet sağlayıcı firmalara ulaşmadı. Yani petrol üreten/sondaj yapan eski fiyattan hizmet alıyor.

Glencore ile Bunge ortak hareket ederse, dünyanın en büyük tarım tacirlerinden biri olacaklar. Soya, buüday ve şekerde, Latin Amerika ve Çin’e kadar uzanacaklar. Tarım da ABCD var: Archer-Daniels-Midland, Bunge, Cargill, Louis Dreyfus. Glencore ABD tahıl pazarına girmek istiyor. ABCD’nin en küçüğü D’nin kazancı 830M$

Singapur’un güneyindeki Semakau adasında Engie ve proje ortakları, güneş ve rüzgarı hidrojen olarak depolayacak sistemi deniyor. Süre ve bekleme açısından hidrojenin uzun dönem potansiyeli yüksek. Ama bugün hidrojen sistemleri, dizel jeneratör sistemlerine göre 10 kat pahalı.i

Altın Fed tutanakları ardından değer kazandı. Faiz artışını yavaşlatarak, ABD’de son dönemde görülen ekonomik yavaşlamanın geçici olduğunun netleşmesini bekleyecek.

PJM bölgesinde kapasite fiyatları, 65 GW için 76$/Mwh’e düştü. 2020-2021 yılı ihalesinde 2 nükleer santralin teklifleri yüksek kaldığından faydalanamadı. PJM’in Base Residual Auction (BRA)’de yapılan değişiklikle kaynakların yıllık devam ettirilebilir hizmet şart sağlaması şart koşuldu. Talep tarafı da ihalede yara aldı.

Brattle Group raporunda, elektrik kamusallarının iklim değişikliğinde karbonsuzlaştırmaya ağırlık verdikçe ölüm sarmalına düşmekten uzaklaşıyor.. Isıtma(elektrikli) ve elektrikli arabalar, yeni gelir kapısı olabilir. Texas üniversitesi makalesinde depolama eklemenin enerji tüketimini arttırdığı da öne sürülmüş.

Ford’un yeni CEOsu, Jim Hackett, daha önce Ford’un otonom araç bölümünün başından geliyor. Rebecca Lindland’a göre “Mobilite düzlemi, 2025de çok farklı olacak ve kilit kararların şimdi alınması lazım”. Ford’un hedefi 2021’de ticari otonom araç piyasaya çıkarmak. Argo AI’de sene başında 1 milyar $ yatırmış.

Çinde düzenlemeler sebebi ile doğalgaz dünyanın en pahalısı. Ham petrolün %16.3’ü (6da 1’i) fiyatını ödüyor.7 $/mmbtu’nun üstü. Çin’i, Güney Kore, Japonya, Tayland, İtalya, Almanya, Endonezya takip ediyor. Çin’de fiyatların 10$/mmbtu’ya çıkması ABD LNGsini Çin için cazip hale getiriyor.

Brezilya’da Petrobras tartışmalarına rağmen Brezilya’nın üretim artışı devam ediyor. Petrobras’ın 2013’teki 2020 hedefi 5 mv/g’den 2.7 mv/g’e düştü. Çin’den daha önceki 10 milyar$ borç üzerine 5 daha aldı. 10 yıl boyunca Çin’e 100,000 v/g petrol sağlayacak. Bu sene 215,000 v/g üretim artışı bekleniyor.

Almanya’da dizel satışları Nisan’da %19 düşmüş. Bu da kullanılmış araba fiyatlarını da baskılayabilir. Dizel skandalına rağmen araba üreticileri ayak diriyor gibi bir izlenim var.

Grafik

Brattle raporuna göre ABD 2050’ye kadar ısıtma ve ulaştırmayı elektriklendirse, dağıtık güneşde %100 teknik potansiyeli kullansa da 1990 yılına göre %80 düşüşü sağlayamıyor (Brattle Group)

 

Firmaların küresel araba satışlarında dizel araç payı (Bloomberg)

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