23 Mayıs 2017

OPEC ne yapacak sorusunda, 9 ay kesinti anlaşmanın parçası oldu gibi, kesinti miktarı önemli. Önden çok kesip sonra azalan kesinti mantıklı olabilir. WSJ’nin Çin’deki tüketici talebinin jiplere kaymasına değinilmiş. Bu sebeple crossover arabalar gündeme gelir. Petrolde petrokimya önem kazanıyor, tanker yakıtlarında ise 2020 sonrası düşük sülfür dönemi tartışmaları bitmiyor. Kömür ve nükleerin düşüşü piyasa gerçeklerinin sonucunda, politikalar ile geri çevrilemez deniyor. Çin yeni uzun dönemli petrol ve gaz stratejisi yayınladı. Okyanuslara çok plastik bırakılıyormuş. Tarih de elektrik lambası gözü kamaştırdığı için eski buğulu karpuz kullanıldığını düşündüren bir haber

Haberler

WSJ iyi yakalanmış, Çin benzili araçları elektriklilerle değiştirmek isterken tüketiciler de jip(SUV) istiyor. Çin’de yol kazalarında her gün 700 kişi ölüyor. Geçen sene 350,000 elektrikli araç satıldı Çin’de. Dünyanın yarısı. Bernstein araştırmaya göre 2025’te 30 milyon elektrikli araç(%9), 150 milyon SUV olacak(%45)

Rüzgar ve güneş kömür ve nükleeri öldürüyor mu? Rüzgar ve güneş eski üretim teknolojilerini sistemden dışlıyor, gelişmeleri ile birlikte yeni inovasyonda geliyor. Texas’daki rüzgar kapasitesi, takip eden 3 eyaletin toplamından gazla. Daha gaz güneş şebeke yönetimine 10 milyon$’a mal olurken, toptan elektrik fiyatlarını 900 milyon $ düşürüyor.

Dünyadaki petrol devleri, petrokimyaya yöneliyor. McKinsey’e göre 2050’ye kadar %1.4 yıllık büyüme, ve talep artışının %60ından petrokimya sorumlu olacak. 2025’e talepteki 3 mv/g artışın sebebi kimyasallar, hafif taşıtlarda ise negatif veya nört artış bekleniyor. Plastik geri dönüşümü sektörün petrol talebini %25 düşürebilir.

Her sene okyanuslara 8 milyon ton plastik sızıyor. Bugün okyanuslarda 150 milyon ton plastik var. 2025’te 3 ton balık için 1 ton plastik olacak. 2050’de ise okyanuslar balıktan daha fazla plastik içerecek. Plastik sektörü dünya toplam karbon bütçesinin %15’inin sebebi.

2015 sonunda ABD’nin en büyük 4 kömür şirketinin değeri 33 milyar $’dan 150 milyon $’a düştü. 2015’te kömür üretimi 2011’e göre %11 düştü. Kömürdeki düşüşün %49 sebebi ucuz doğalgaz, %26 düşük talep, yenilenebilir %18, çevre politikaları %3-5. Çevresel düzenlemeler, piyasalar ile rekabet edemez, dönüşümün sebebi piyasalar diyor.

AB’nin pazartesi sızan yenilenebilir enerji direktifi revizyon taslak raporuna göre, 2030’da enerjide (elektrik değil) %35 yenilenebilir hedefi var ve ulusal hedefler de zorunlu olacak. Daha önceki taslaklarda en az %30 idi.

Çin petrol ve gaz uzun dönemli reform planını yayınladı. Üstakışta, devletdışı şirketler de deniz aramacılığı yapabilecek,bağımsız rafinericiler daha fazla gözlem altına alınacak, boruhattı işini petrol devlerinden alacak, rafineri sektöründe kalite artışı, sektöre yeni girişin kontrol edilmesi,petrol ve gaz ticaret platformları kurulacak.

“Ağlar, çitler ne kadar yüksek olursa olsun, uzaktan sızılabilir, etki sızan kişinin erişebildiği düğüm ve uygulama hizmetleri ile orantılı”, akıllı şehirlerde 7 sorun, 6 öneri

OPEC toplantı sonucu perşembe 18’de… Ama içeriden daima birşeyler mesajlıyorlar, sabah 10’dan itibaren hareket bekleniyor.

Çevrenin Şifrelenmiş yönetime(Cryptogovernance) ihtiyacı var. Kayıtzinciri 4 noktada işe yarar: Sahiplik (sertifikasyon ve doğrulama) Mesela Ghana’da tapu kayıtları denemesi, İzlenebilirlik: tüm bir gıda zinciri ve tedarik takip edilebilir, ekolojik izleri gözlenir; Teşvik: çantacı devreden çıkarılır; Politika yapımında oylama vs gibi sistemlerde

Hindistan, OPEC’ten özel ilgi “preferential treatment” bekliyor. OPEC’in önemli bir müşterisi olarak,

Beklenenden daha yüksek bir ABD benzin talebi geldi ve fiyatlar daha yükseldi. AAA, bu uzun hafta sonunda 34 milyon ABD’linin yollara çıkacağını tahmin ediyor.

2020 sonrası gemi tanker yakıtlarındaki sülfür tartışması devam ediyor. Platts kurallara uymama konusunu bile çalışmış. IMO Temmuzda tekrar toplanıyor. 2020 ertelenmeyecek/değişmeyecek deniyor.

ABD’nin ithalat bağımlılığı azaldığından SPR, stratejik petrol rezervlerindeki 688 milyon varil petrolün yarısını satarak 17 milyar $ gelir elde edecek. Günde 100,000 v/g ek üretim gibi etki eder.

 

Grafik

OPEC ülkelerinin başabaş petrol fiyatları gelişimi (Chris Johnson)

Çin’de SUV ve benzin talebi (WSJ)

Tarih

Yıllar sonra neden lambalara karpuz taktıklarını anlamış oldum. (Ameli Elektrik, 1934) Çünkü göz kamaştırıyor

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