22 Mayıs 2017

Bugün iki grafik IEA ve EIA’nın güneş ve doğalgaz tahminlerindeki yanlışlar görmeye değerdi. Hem fosil de hem yenilenebilirde sistematik sapan tahminler. Bence ders: teknolojik gelişimin hızı kaynağın gelişimine göre daha belirsiz. Kayıtzinciri ile ilgili gelişmeler hızlanıyor. Bitcoin kayıtzinciri üzerine inşa edilmiş bir para birimi. Doğu Afrika petrol gelişimi büyük değil ama Uganda-Tanzanya nispeten şanslı gibi. Dünya fakirlik saati. Make in India raporunda elektrik, kömür ve çelik kısmını okudum, tavsiye ederim. Arşivlik. Tarihte 1926 yılına ait İstanbul elektrik ali tevettür (yüksek gerilim) hatları. Elektrikli arabalar, kayıtzinciri veya bir başka teknolojide sorguladığım kısımlar önce ekonomikliği, sonra da kabul edilme hızı…  Bu sebeple bunları etkileyen faktörlere bakıyorum

Öneri

S&P’nin Hindistan raporu “Make in India

Haberler

Bu hafta: Salı API ABD petrol arz raporu; Çarşamba EIA haftalık petrol ve benzin stokları; Perşembe OPEC toplantısı, ABD haftalık doğalgaz stok raporu; Cuma Baker Hughes ABD kule rakamları

Oxford Energy’nın Doğu Afrika petrol gelişmelerinde, Uganda, Kenya ve Güney Sudan’la ilgili olarak Uganda-Tanzanya boru hattının şansı yüksek görülmüş, Kenya ile ilgili risk algısı çok yüksek. Güney Sudan’da ise 2019 sonrası Sudan’la yaşanabilecek sorunlara değinilmiş.

Kayıtzinciri (blockchain)’de Mercuria “akıllı kontratlar” ile bir petrol ticaretini tamamladı. Kağıtla 10-20+ gün süren kağıt işleri yerine 2 gün içerisinde yapıldı. 2015’de 2 trilyon $ küresel ticaret için 4.5 milyon kredi mektubu yazıldı

Kayıtzincirinde, Mercuria ING bank ve Societe Generale ile akıllı kontratla petrol ticaretini pilot olarak yaptı, Gunvor bankalarla görüşme halinde, Trafigura IBM ve Natixis ile ABD ham petrol ticareti için IBM’in Hyperledger Fabric kullanıyor. BTL ve GFT teknolojiler de konu ile ilgili olarak çalışıyor.

İngiltere açık deniz rüzgar projelerinde %50 istihdam ve malzemede yerlilik istiyor. İngiltere’de açık deniz rüzgar gücünün bugün ki 5 GW’dan 2020’deki 10 GW’a çıkması bekleniyor. Liverpool açıklarındaki 32 tane 8 MW’lık türbin de dünyanın en büyüklerinden. Açık denizde türbin ve kanatlar maliyetin %30-40…

OPEC ve nOPEC kesintileri 2017 ikinci yarıda devam etse de, stoklar 5 yıl ortalamasının altına düşmez. Ocak’ta kesintilerin yürürlülüğe girdiği tarihten önce OPEC’de üretimi arttırarak stokları şişirdi. Şimdi hedef tekrar stokları düşürebilmek.

Emtia taciri olmak zor, çünkü bilgi heryerde, bu sebeple Vitol gibi gruplar oyunda herşeyi ile olarak sahadan birinci elden bilgi almaya çalışıyor, bunun içinde toptan/perakendeye uzanıyorlar. Asıl belirsizlik IMO kükürt kararının etkileri.

ABD’de Permian sahasındaki üretimin Haziran’da 2.49 mv/g (ABD’nin üretiminin 4’te 1), 2020’de 5 mv/g (Citigroup tahmini), gelecek 10 yılda da 8-10 mv/g bekleyenler var. Suudi Arabistan kadar… 100 yıldır üreten bir basen.

“The end of theory” kitabında, 4 unsur: “gelişen olaylar”: insan davranışlarının toplamı beklenmeyen sonuçlar doğurur. “Ergodik olmama”:aynı kuralları takip etmeme, “radikal belirsizlik”, insanların bilememesi; “hesaplanabilir indirgemecilik”, gelecek çok karışık. Bir de “reflexivity”: mevcut gözlemin davranışları ve sonucu değiştirmesi

OPEC daha önce suçladığı finansal oyuncular ile daha fazla iletişim halinde. Ama hala 700 milyon varil net uzunluk(length) var. Suudiler görüşüyor ama çok dinleyip az konuşuyorlar, renk vermiyorlar.

ABD’de enerji sektöründe tüketiciden üreticilere para akışını Sankey grafikler ile görselleştiren yazılım ve makalesi(indiren bana da maillesin).

Fransa’da Macron, ülkenin nükleere bağımlılığını 2025’te %50’ye düşürmeyi hedefliyordu. 2022’ye kadar güneş rüzgar x2, kömür de devre dışı

Bugün Auke Hoekstra’nın, Uluslararası Enerji Ajansı’nın sistematik olarak nasıl güneş gelişimini düşük tahmin ettiğini grafiği ile; ABD’nin enerji bilgi dairesine göre ise doğal gaz üretimi tahminleri de gerçekleşenden hep düşük olmuş.

Dünya Fakirlik Saati bir web sitesi, dünyanın fakirliğe karşı başarısını ölçüyor. Saniyede 1.5 kişi fakirlikten kurtuluyor

Grafik

Tunus petrol ve gaz projeleri, (MeesEnergy)

OPEC kesti ama diğerlerinin üretimi arttı (Bloomberg Gadfly– Julian Lee)

Tarih

İstanbul elektrik kablo haritası (Salt Research Archieves), Nisan 1926

“ İstanbul alii tevettür(yüksek gerilim) şebekesinin başlıca kablolarının şematik planı “

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