24 Nisan 2017 – Serkan Şahin

Serkan Şahin’in hafta başı yorumu aşağıdadır:

“Iran’in 2017 baslarinda uretim ve potansiyel siniri yasayacagindan daha once bahsetmistim. Iran’in petrol yuklemeleri konusunda bilgi sahibi oldugu bilinen gizli bir kaynaga gore Mayis yuklemeleri 14 ayin en dusuk seviyesinde olacak. Thomson Reuters Petrol Arastirma birimi verilerine gore mevcut ham petrol yukleme hacmi Nisan toplam yuklemelerinin %40’i seviyesinde kalmis durumda. Iran’in yuzer stoklarinin tukenmesi ardindan bu sorunlarin yasanacagini bekliyordum. Iran, uretim sorunlari yaninda Hindistan ile yasadigi sorunlar ile beraber yuklemelerde ciddi sorun yasayacak gibi. Bunun yaninda Avrupa’ya giden kargolari artirma cabasinin marjlara takilacagini bekliyorum.

Cin’in stratejik stok icin ciddi planlar yaptigi Hainan adasindaki petrol stoklarinda ekonomik sorunlar olusmaya basladi. Cin. Her ne kadar bu stoklarin stratejik stok olarak kalacagini soylese de bu miktarin spot piyasaya acilmayacagini gormek Cin talebi icin biraz umit verici. Cin’deki kabotaj yasalari geregi yerel tasimalarda Cin bandrali gemilerin zorunlu olmasi, Hainan petrolunun tasinma maliyetlerinde ciddi baski olusturuyor. Ayni adada kurulu rafineriler, boru hatti baglantisi olmadigi ve tanker fiyatlari kisitlamalar nedeniyle cok yukseldigi icin stoklardaki petrol yerine spot piyasadan kargo almayi daha ekonomik buluyor. Cin’in bu stoklari uzun sure tutma stratejisi oldugunu gosterir onemli bir bilgi bence. Diger stratejik stoklarin durumunu da bu sekilde yakindan incelemekte fayda var.”

“Buradaki gorusler tamamen yazarin kendi gorusleri olup Thomson Reuters ve bagli kuruluslari kesinlikle baglamaz ve goruslerini yansitmaz.”

65 thoughts on “24 Nisan 2017 – Serkan Şahin”

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