21 Nisan 2017

Özet

IMO kararı takip listemde. Petrol gene düştü, ama emin değiliz. İki ihtimal var, talep artışı yüksek olan ülke verilerinde bir sorun gören var ya da çok spekülatif bir hareket. Belki de trader houselar OPEC’i anlaşmaya ikna etmeye çalışıyor, yaklaşık OPEC kadar pazar payları var ticarette. Bu sene sonu faaliyet karlarından anlarız. Rüzgarda büyüyen kanatlar ile kapasite faktörleri sabit kalmaya-artmaya devam ediyor. İngiltere bugün kömürsüz ilk tam gününü geçirecek. İngiltere de fiyat tavanı tartışması raporu. Petrolde veri-fiyat ilişkisi bence değişken bir zaman gecikmesine sahip, bu sebeple 1 hafta sonra daha net anlarız spekülatif olup olmadığını

Öneri

Rüzgar türbinlerindeki değişim

Özetler

Petrol niye düştü? Goldman’a göre bu haftaki düşüşün temel kanıtları durumu doğrulamıyor. Hafta ortası düşüşün sebebi 50 ve 100 günlük hareketli ortalama ticareti. Barclays’de ayılardayız demiş.

İlk rüzgar türbinleri 1980’lerde rotor çağı 18 metreydi. 2005’te 73 m, 2015’te 102 m’ye çıktı. Bu da bir futbol sahasının alanının yarısını süpürebildiği anlamına geliyor. En büyük kanat ise 88.4 m, 177m çapında bir alan süpürebiliyor. Siemens bugün kara için 142 m öneriyor. Siemens 2MWiçin 83 m’den 120 metre rotora çıkmış

İngiltere’de enerji fiyat artışları giderek politize oldu. Bir fiyat tavanı uygulanmalı tartışması var ve hükümette bu konuda kararlı

Baker Hughes kule artışı 5 petrol ile 688’e, 5 gaz ile 167’e çıktı. Arka arkaya 14.hafta yükselişi.

ABD’de orta ve lise çağındaki çocukların %82si sponsor makalesi (sponsored post) ile gerçek haberi ayırt edemiyor. İnterdisipliner “Translational Ecology”, bilim adamlarını çevre araştırmasını politikaya çevirmeye yardımcı olacak. Çevre için bilimsel okur yazarlığı güçlü bir vatandaşlık lazım diyor. Nature Communications

Trump’un çelik ithalatına tarife uygulaması önemli. ABD geçtiğimiz yıllarda 152 anti-dumping davası açtı, 25’i de yolda. ABD çelikcileri de Çin’deki fazla kapasitenin %71 kapasite faktörüne sebep olduğunu iddia ediyor.

IMO(denizcilik örgütü)’nün Ekim’de aldığı deniz yakıtlarında kükürtün %3.5’tan %0.5’e düşürme kararı sektörün kömürden petrole geçişinden beri en büyük karar denmiş. Kükürtsüzleştirme gemi başı 3-5 milyon $. Orta distilatta(dizel vs) 1.4 mv/g arz artışı olurken talep 3.7mv/g artacak (2016’dan 2020’ye)

İngiltere sanayi devriminden bu yana ilk kömürsüz gününü geçirdiğini iddia ediyor. 1900’lerin başından beri elektrikte ilk kömürsüz gün olabilir. Ama kömür öyle ya da böyle bir sanayi hammaddesi.

Serkan’ın de değindiği DUC(drilled but uncompleted- kazıldı ama tamamlanmadı) konusunda Clipperdata güzel açıklama yapmış. DUC niye artar, arsa kiralarını devam ettirebilmek için. Fakat Aralıktan bu yana hem kazılan hem de tamamlanan artmaya devam ediyor.

Son 10 günde ABD körfezdeki ham petrol ile bekleyen gemi 9mv’e çıkmış.

Elektrik dağıtım şirketleri düzenlemesinde örnek bir yöntem önerisi. Bir referans şebeke modeli (RNM)’e göre kıyaslayarak, TOTEX (hem sabit hem işletme- toplam harcama) hesabı ve düzenleyici süreç

Grafik

Petrolde 50 $’a yolculuk – Brent (Javier Blas)

 

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