20 Nisan 2017

Dün ki Rystad’ın Permian’ı Ghawarla eşdeğer gören sunum grafiğine Serkan itiraz etti : “Orada soyledikleri analiz “kesfedilmemis” rezervleri de kapsiyor ki cok kotu bir hesaplama. Iki sorun var burada; birincisi varsayim sadece ABD’nin daha genis alanlarina ithafen yapilmis. Ikincisi nasil bir makroekonomik durum ya da petrol fiyat senaryosu ABD rezervlerinin Suudi Arabistan’dan daha fazla yapabilirin cevabi yok”. Güneşte perovskite ve direkt hidrojen üretiminde çok makale görüyoruz. Teknolojide artan makale bir sinyaldir.

Öneri

Oil Price com’da Arthur Berman’ın yazısı.

Haberler

Microsoft yenilenebilir sertifikaları ile 100% yenilenebilir hedefini yakalamış, Google 2017 sonunda. Burkina Faso da güneşle enerjisini alan bir altın madeni, Çin ve Hindistan da demiryolu binalarının üstü, Ocak’ta Apple’ın 235 MW anlaşması.50 Amerikan şirketi 17 GW daha bu tip anlaşmalar yapabilir.

ABD stoklarının 143 milyon varil daha düşmesi gerekiyor ki 5 yıl ortalamasını yakalasın. OPEC 1.8 mv/g kesti, ABD’de üretim 300binv/g artsa, 143/1.5=100 gün. Ama IEA’e göre 330 mv, EIA’ya göre 260 mv fark var. 6 ay-1 yıl oluyor.

JPMorgan Chase&Co. New York’taki teknoloji merkezini 3 katına çıkaracak. Bankanın programcıları ve veri mühendisleri için…

1950’lerde Kanada Alberta’daki Cardium, dünyanın en büyük petrol alanı bile sayılmış (260,000 km2). 1953’de ExxonMobil, bulduğunda rezerv 10 milyar varil, fakat daha 1’i üretilmemiş. Üretim maliyeti 15$/v. Fakat kuyular 300v/g’den hızla 50v/g’e düşüyor. Kanada’nın geleneksel petrol üretimi 1.5mv/g.

İngiltere de Almanya gibi, çok enerji kullanan tüketicileri(sanayi) düşük karbon maliyetlerinden istisna tutuyor. 100Milyon pound ofset vermiş. Fakat düşük karbon kaynaklar Almanya’da toptan satış fiyatlarını 4 yılda %37 düşürmüş. Talep tarafındanda da turn-up veya turn-down DSR yöntemleri var.

Vitol, Gazprom’dan 2018 yılından itibaren yılda 300,000 mt/yıl LNG almak için anlaştı.Vitol 2016’da 3 milyon ton LNG sattı. Gazprom’un LNGsi daha çok Sakhalin-2’den.

Henry hub fiyalarının 3$/mmbtu(*35=105 $/1000m3) olması yatırımları teşvik ediyor. Marcellus Şeyl’deki gazın bir kısmı boru hatlarındaki kapasite eksiği ile tüketim noktalarına taşınamıyordu. Yeni kapasiteler geldi. Üretim 0.6~ dan 1 bcm/güne çıkabilir. Bilgisayar, kapasite , Şeyl gaz 2.0 Hoş geldin.

Güneşte perovskite solüsyon/mürekkep ile antisolvent eklemesi ile diğer kimyasalları ayıran işlem süresini 8 dakikaya çıkaran yöntem.

Bir Avrupa Birliği sorunsalı: AB’de 2016’da satılan arabalar 2015’e göre %1 daha az emisyon salıyor. Bu araba üreticilerinin beyanı ise istatistiksel hata bile denebilir.

Grafik

Petrol piyasası talep büyümesi, ve fiyat (Arthur Berman – Oil Price.com)

Arz ve Talep yaklaşık dengede (Arthur Berman – Oil Price.com)

Arşiv

29 Ocak 1956, Elektrik işlerine Sanayi, Madenler ve Enerji Bakanlığı bakacak. (Milliyet)

40 thoughts on “20 Nisan 2017”

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