19 Nisan 2017 – Serkan Şahin’in Yorumu

Serkan Şahin’in hafta ortası petrol yorumu aşağıdadır

” ABD’nin ham petrol ithalati her ne kadar son 5 ceyrek ortalamasinin biraz altinda gibi dursa da, 2014 ve 2015’deki seviyelerinin uzerinde. Fiyatlarin artmasinin etkisi var ancak OPEC’in ABD’ye giden kargolari sinirlama ve ABD stoklarinin erimesini saglama planinda bir basari gibi de okunabilir. Ticari ham petrol stoklari 1.03 milyon varil dusmus yine. Rafinerilerin %92.9’luk kullanim orani cok iyi. Buna ragmen dusen gasoline stoklari mevsimsel talebin habercisi olabilir. RBOB stoklarinda dusus varken CBOB artmis. PADD1’de talep diye okuyabiliriz.

Cushing stoklari 778,000 varil duserken PADD 2 stoklari 1.9 milyon varil artmis. Bu da Dakota Access Pipeline (DAP) ile Dogu’ya kayan Bakken petrolu, guneye inmemis demek gibi geldi bana. Dogu Yakasi’nin en buyuk rafinericisi olan Philedelphia Energy Solutions’in Haziran’da alacagi tum Bakken petrolunu DAP uzerinden alacagini duyurmasi ile paralel bu veriler. Bana gore Bakken petrolu Kanada ithalatindaki sorunlar ile beraber Guney’e inmek yerine Dogu’ya yonelecek. Bu da PADD3 uretimine destek olabilir. PADD3 ham petrol stoklarinda 3 milyon varillik ciddi bir dusus var. Rafineri kullanim oraninin %93.4 oldugu bir ortamda beklenir bir durum. Ham petrol ithalati 382,000 varil artmis PADD3’te, bu da artan ic uretimi dengelemk icin ithalata yonlendiklerini dusundurttu bana. CBOB stoklarindaki artis da Orta ve Guney ABD icin bir gasoline talebine hazirlik olabilir.”

“Buradaki gorusler tamamen yazarin kendi gorusleri olup Thomson Reuters ve bagli kuruluslari kesinlikle baglamaz ve goruslerini yansitmaz.”

40 thoughts on “19 Nisan 2017 – Serkan Şahin’in Yorumu”

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