17 Nisan 2017

Serkan Şahin’in hafta başı petrol yorumu burada. Konu petrol stoklarına bakış. Bugün kendimce temam, veriler. Mesela ABD’de çelik endeksi US HRC ile Dated Brent ilişkisi. Çin büyümesi ve petrol talebi esnekliği, Çelik üretim artışı. FT-Brookings TIGER indeksi bence önemli, erken büyüme göstergesi .Permian ve diğer havzalarda hedge/koruma oranları. Sonunda tahmin yapmak etkili göstergeleri harmanlayarak bir sentez yapma süreci. Adam Siemenski’nin açıklamaları tecrübe dolu, önemli olan kabullerin değişiminin sonucu ne kadar etkilediği. Senaryolar arası delta(fark). Tarih kısmında “Dünya petrolden kurtulmaya çalışıyor”

Okuma önerisi

Trader’lara göre bu dönemde jeopolitik riskler önemli olacak.

Haber

FT-Brookings TIGER endeksi, dünyadaki büyümeyi tahmin etmeye çalışan endekslerden biri. Son sonuçlara göre küresel düzelme gerçek, hızlı büyüyen gelişmekte olan piyasalar artık durgun sularda. Endekste Türkiye’de var. Hem Çin, hem Hindistan hızlı bir açılımda. AB’de de bir düzelme var.

10 yıllık ABD sıcak çekilmiş çelik rulo US HRC ile Platts teslim günü belli Brent – Dated Brent arasındaki korelasyon 0.64. Nedeni HRC’nin petrol sisteminde boru ve tüp işlemlerind kullanılması. Son zamanlarda petrol fiyatının öncü göstergesi çelik olmaya başlamış. Fakat bağlantı birini diğeri yerine kullanmak için çok zayıf denmiş.

Çin ilk çeyrekte hedefi %6.5’in üzerinde %6.9 büyüdü. Petrol talebi %5.3 arttı. Petrol üretimi de %6.8 düştü.

Eski EIA başkanı Adam Sieminski’nin petrol yorumu:“2020’li yıllar zor olacak… Düzensizlik 10 yılı olacak, yeterli kapital yatırım yok, şeylin ise beklenen herşeyi yapabileceğinden emin değilim

Moleküler güneş termal sistemi: Güneş enerjisini molekülde depolayarak, taşıma, lazım olduğunda kullanmaya dayanıyor. Verimi %0.01’den %1’lere ulaşmış. Anlaması zor ama elektrik olsa süper fikir

Almanya’da rüzgar rekoru 38.5 GW, hidro %50 daha güçlü. Nükleer de son dönemin en düşüğünde. Neckarwestheim II, en genç reaktör de yakıt çubukları bu hafta değişecek ama 2022’de kapatılacağından yakıt çubukları incelenecek, sadece gerekliler değişecek. 2016’da da bir reaktöre malware bulaşmıştı.

Tüm kamyon türlerinde otonomluk %18 yakıt verimliliği olacak. 2050’de hafif taşıtlarda %44 verimlilik öngörülüyor. Rapor burada. Forbes’te Siemenski’nin “2050-2040’a doğru tahmin nasıl olabilir ki? …. Hedef senaryolar arası delta, yani kabullerdeki değişikliğin sonuçlara etkisi önemli”

Trader’lara göre bu dönemde jeopolitik riskler önemli olacak. Kırmızı-sarı kesintiler. Bugün ki eniyi grafik

Permian’da daha düşük fiyatlara daha yüksek bir üretim korumaya alınmış(hedge). Ardından Bakken, sonra Eagle Ford. Bu grafik de çok iyi

Çin’de ham çelik üretimi Mart’ta bir sene öncesine göre %1.8 artarak 72 mton’a ulaştı. Daha önceki Haziran rekorunu kırdı. İlk 3 ay toplamında da %4.6 artmış

2017 ilk çeyrekte, özel fonlar enerji yatırımlarına 19.8 milyar $ harcamış (ABD).

Suudiler %25’in altında ilerlemesi olan projeleri durduracak. Faithful+Gould bu sene 13.3 milyar $ hükümet projesi riskte demiş.

Irak’ta Basra’daki petrol jettysi tamir edildi. Terminalin yükleme kapasitesi: 1.8 mv/g

Grafik

US HRC (çelik) ile Petrol fiyat (Dated Brent) hareketleri (Platts)

Almanya’da Nükleer santral kapatma takvimi (CleanTechnica)

Tarih

3 Haziran 1979 – Sayfa 20 – Milliyet – Dünya petrolden kurtulmaya çalışıyor

 

30 thoughts on “17 Nisan 2017”

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