17 Nisan 2017 – Serkan Şahin’in yorumu

Serkan Şahin’in hafta başı yorumu aşağıdadır:

“Ham petrol ve islenmis ürün stoklarında optimum seviye nedir? Stokların sıfırlanmasını beklemek hiç gerçekçi değil. Peki hangi stok seviyesi fiyatları ciddi bir backwardation içine sokar? ABD ticari  ham petrol stoklarindaki petrolun gittikce hafifledigini, ic uretimin ve kondensatin payının çok arttığını anlamak zor değil. Bunun testi için stratejik rezevlerin içeriğine bakarsak, büyük kısmının hafif petrolden olduğunu gorebiliriz. Son alinan kararla stratejik rezervden satış yapma kararı maliyetleri karşılamak için olsa da ticari stoklardaki ciddi miktardaki hafif petrole güvenerek bu azalmanın yapıldığını tahmin ediyorum ki bu benim icin geçerli bir test. Cushing stokları backwardation ile beraber tekrar güney kuzey yönünde (Meksika Körfezi’nden Cushing’e) akisla dolmaya baslarsa bu durumda stokların erimesi daha kolay olabilir mi? Bence evet. %90 üstü rafineri kullanim oranına rağmen erimeyen ham petrol stoklarını bence guney kuzey yönlü akışın artışı çözer. Ama bu Venezuela’nin kapasite durumu ile doğrudan alakalı ve ABD için Suudi Arabistan’a karşı verdiği savaşta ciddi bir handikap.”

“Buradaki gorusler yazarin gorusleri olup Thomson Reuters ve bagli kuruluslari baglamaz.”

40 thoughts on “17 Nisan 2017 – Serkan Şahin’in yorumu”

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