30 Mart 2017

Dallas Fed’in enerji anketinde istihdam güçlü çıkmamış. ABD’de elektrik utility-kamusallarındaki sorunlar gerçekten büyük, bir yandan batık maliyetleri kurtarmak, yeni teknolojilere yatırım vs. Renault Zoe aslında Türkiye içinde mantıklı. Askeri tesislerde mikroşebeke. LNG’de Rusya dünya lideri olur mu? Putin istiyor. Avrupada dizel araçlara tüketiciler de mi mesafeli davranılıyor, ben daha net emare görmedim. Petrol sektörü sağlıklı mı, Jaffe’e göre Yaz tatil başlangıcı ile anlarız diyor. Nisanda belli olur. Petrol talebi zirve yapsa ne olur? Şirketler bu korkuyu diğer taraflarda (gaz-yenilenebilir) ile korumaya almaya çalışıyor. Petrol OPEC anlamasının uzama ihtimali ile değer kazansa da, teknikciler kötü haberde WTI 40-44$ görür diyor. Ama artık ABD benzin talep rakamları sinyal verecek.

Bilgiler

Petrol fiyatları üretim kesintilerinin devam edeceği beklentisi ile yükseldi. Doların değerine ilintisi ise 30 Mart itibari ile -0.137 (anlamsız). Teknik analiz zayıflık ortaya çıkarsa 40-44$ seviyesi diyor. Yukarı yönlü WTI’da 50.22 rahat geçilir ama 51.97 direnç

Küresel petrol ekonomisi sağlıklı mı, “Anma günü(Memorial day)”’den 1 hafta sonra benzin talebinin ne kadar değiştiği ile anlayacağız. Anma günü ABD’de Mayıs ayının son Pazartesi. Yaz tatili başlayınca diyor ama aslında Nisan-Mayıs döneminde ABD’de sürüş sezonu başlar.

VW skandalından sonra Avrupalılar daha az dizel araç alma eğilimindeler.Bu da Mercedes’i düşündürüyor. Elektrikli araba hedeflerini öne çekti.2025’teki 10 model hedefini 2022’ye aldı. Audi’de ise 43,000 işçiyi temsil eden sendika, Ingolstadt’da da elektrikli araba yapılmasını istedi. Ne sendikalar var!

Renault Zoe, muhtemelen 2017’nin en mantıklı elektrikli arabası, Avrupa’da BMW i3 ve Nissan Leaf toplamı kadar satmış. Şubatta Avrupa da 16000 elektrikli araç kaydı var, geçen sene aynı aya göre %20 artış. Yıl toplamlarında %38 artış

ConocoPhillips’in petrol kumları varlıklarını satacağını açıklaması sonucu hisseleri %7.4 değer kazandı. UBS’e göre bu varlık “düşük büyüme, düşük marjlı varlık”.

Dallas Fed enerji anketi dün yayınlandı. İş aktivitesinde ankete katılanların %50sinde artış (bir önceki çeyreğe göre), %14’ünde azalma olmuş. %48.7’si şirketlerinin durumunda iyileşme, %40.8’i ise her hangi bir değişiklik olmadığını söylemiş. Ama istihdamda artış zayıf kalmış.

California’da sayaç gerisi güneş kapasitesi 5 GW ve dağıtım boyutundaki de 10 GW. California ISO şebeke kararlılığı için artan oranda güneş üretiminde kısıntıya gidecek.

ABD’de 2011’de de San Diego’daki elektrik kesintisinden 8 saat elektrik verilemeyen MCAS Miramar deniz üssüne hibe verilerek Micro şebeke projesi yapılmış. Raytheon ve Miramar da iş ortakları

Petrol talebinin tepe yapacağı tartışılsa da, petrol işindeki şirketler kendilerini korumak için başka sektörlere yatırım yapıyor. Avrupalılar daha agresif. Statoil 2030’da tüm yatırımının %15-20sini yenilenebilire yapıyor. Shell gaza yoğun yatırım yapıyor. Exxon “uzun dönemli gaz oyunu” ve kısa dönemli şeyl birlikte oynuyor. Petrol devletler?

Novatek ve Gazprom ortak olarak Arktikten gaz üretebilir. Yamal LNG 16.5 milyon ton LNG üretmeyi planlıyor, Arctic LNG 2 tesisinin ilk katarı ise 2022-2023 gibi bitecek, benzer kapasite de. Rusya 70 milyon ton LNG üretir demiş, Novatek’ten Leonid Mikhelson

WoodMackenzie’ye göre bazı derin deniz projeleri ABD’deki sıkı petrol maliyetlerine yaklaşıyor. 2014’ten beri derin deniz projeleri maliyetleri %20 düştü.5 milyar varil derin deniz rezervi 50$ altında mantıklı, sıkı petrolde ise aynı fiyat seviyesinde 15 milyar varil rezerv var.

ABD’deki elektrik şirketlerinin durumu anketinde en büyük sorun %49 ile yatırım maliyetlerinin geri dönüşünü almak, %43 yeni teknolojik yatırımları ispatlamak, %41 dağıtık kaynak büyümesini yönetmek, %35 ise verimlilik ve negatif talep artışından dolayı gelir kayıplarını kurtarmak.

Putin Novatek ve Total CEO’larına “Rusya dünyanın en büyük LNG üreticisi olabilir ve olacaktır” dedi.

Grafik

Petrolcülere göre 2017 sonu petrol fiyatı kaç olur (Dallas Fed)

Derin deniz ve ABD sıkı petrol maliyetleri (WoodMackenzie)

60 thoughts on “30 Mart 2017”

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