27 Mart 2017

Bugün LNG konusundaki bu rapor çok dolu. Serkan’ın Aramco halka arz analizi burada. Çin’de petrol talebi artarken dizel talebinin düşmesi önemliydi. FT’deki “trader house”ların 3’ü bir yarım OPEC ediyor. Bu kısım önemli. Goldman Sachs sanki petrol talebinde kesintiye gerek yok mu demiş, ben mi öyle anladım. Piyasa dengeleniyor diyor. Bu hafta Trump clean power plan -CPP’yi geri alabilir, kömür-gaz geçişkenliğinde yeni bir dönem başlayabilir. Petrol şirketleri ABD’de daha fazla koruma-hedge etmişler. İngiltere’de akıllı sayaçlarda yaşanan sorunlar..

Bilgiler

Vitol, Glencore ve Trafigura, günlük OPEC petrol üretiminin yarısı kadar petrol ticareti yapıyor: 17 mv/g (ham petrol+ürünü). 2014’te bu rakam 10 mv/gdü. Gunvor ve Mercuria’da 5 mv/g petrol işinde. Vitol : 7mvg/g, Glencore 5.5mv/g, Trafigura 5 mv/g, Gunvor 2.6 mv/g, Mercuria 2.5 mv/g.

Petrolde maliyet düşüşlerinde açık deniz, kara sondajlarının düşüş etkisini yakalayıp geçebilir. Kara sondajcıları %65-90 maliyet düşüşünün kalıcı olduğunu düşünüyor. Servis işirketleri dönemsel düşüşün tüm düşüşün %50si olduğunu iddia ediyor. Bu yatırım verimliliğinin %55’i dönemsel, %45i yapısal

Çin’in petrol talebi %5.5 artmasına rağmen, dizel talebi %5.3 düştü. Bir önceki yıla göre petrol ürünleri talebi %4.3’ten %2.8’e geriledi.Kömür ve dizel talebi birlikte düşüş görürken, çimento talebi hızlı, çelik durgun.

Petrol fiyatları düşse de ABD’de üretim gelmeye devam edebilir. Şirketler %27 gelirlerini koruma(hedge etmişler)ya almışlar. 2016’da %17ydi.

ABD’nin en büyük özel(şahsi) madencilik şirketi Murray Energy’nin sahibi Robert Murray, kömürün Trump döneminde yeşil prangalarından kurtulacağını ama bunun madencilik istihdamında büyük bir artışa yol açmayacağını iddia etmiş. Trump bu hafta CPP’yi bitirebilir. Bu da kömür-gaz rekabetine dair yeni bir dönemi açabilir.

Ürdün’de Amman’ın 100km güney doğusunda, Attaratum Ghudran petrol şeylindeki rezervden 470 MW net elektrik üretecek santralin inşaatı yakında başlayacak ve 2020 ortasında devreye girecek.

Hindistan elektrik bakanı Piyush Goyal, önümüzdeki 15 ayda güneş kurulu gücünün 10,000 MW’dan 20,000 MW’a çıkacağını tahmin ediyor. 2017’de 8.8 GW yeni kapasite eklenecek ve 1.1 GW çatı tipi güneş. 2022’de 100 GW güneş, 60 GW rüzgar hedefi var hükümetin. Bakan, yenilenebilir hinidstan kapasitesinin %60’ı olabilir demiş.

Afrikalıların 3’te 2sinin, -620 milyon- elektriğe erişimi yok. 9 ülkede ilkokulların %80inde elektrik yok. Ortalama Afrikalı yılda 160 kW elektrik tüketiyor. Afrikayı elektriklendirmeye dair çok kapsamlı bir rapor.

Suudi Arabistan kraliyet kararı ile Saudi Aramco’nun gelir vergisi oranı %85’ten %50’ye düşürüldü. Aramco %20’de devlet hakkı ödüyor. Karar aslında 100 milyar $’ın üzerinde sermayesi olan hidrokarbon şirketlerini içeriyor. Ama Suudi arabistan’da bu karara uyan bu kadar büyük sadece Saudi Aramco var.

Goldman Sachs, OPEC’i üretim kesintilerini uzatma konusunda uyardı: “Eğer talep düşüşü veya Libya/Nijerya’dan hızla üretim artışı beklemiyorsanız, kesintiye gerek yok”

İngiltere’de akıllı sayaç ve anlık fatura miktarını gösteren sistemlerde, daha sonradan çıkan okuma sorunlarında 12ay geri doğru düzeltme fatura gönderilmesi hala çözülmedi. Veri ofisi Data Communications Company hala tam anlamıyla hazır değil, kaldı ki mobil veri yerine adanmış ağ bağlantılarının en sonunda gerekeceğini belirten de var.

Grafik

Bağımsız emtia şirketlerinin petrol ticaret hacimleri (FT)

Wood Mackenzie’den petrol koruma fiyat ve hacimleri

Goldman Sachs – küresel petrol piyasaları dengeleniyor.

 

 

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