27 Mart 2017 – Serkan Şahin’in yorumu

Aşağıdaki yorum Serkan Şahin’in haftabaşı yorumudur:

“Aramco’nun borsaya acilmasi uzerine cok soru donmeye basladi, kendi tahminlerimi sizinle paylasayim.

Herseyden once Aramco’nun tam anlamiyla baska hicbir petrol-gaz sirketine benzemedigini (Gazprom ve NIOC’ye hafif benzerlikleri olsa da) iyi anlamak lazim. Aramco her ne kadar entegre bir dev sirket olsa da asil gucu arama&uretim (aslinda neredeyse sadece uretim)den geliyor. Uretimdeki en buyuk iki silahi; 1) Ghawar sahasina sahip olmasi, 2) Sahalarinin rezerv hesaplamalarinin dis denetleyicilerden (external aduit) bu zamana kadar uzak tutulmus olmasi. Her ne kadar Ocak’ta sozde bir denetleyici verisi aciklanmis olsa da petrol sirketi-denetleyici iliskisini anlamak icin Volkswagen-emisyon olcum sirketi iliskisini inceleyebilirsiniz. En onemli musterinize istedigi sonuclari vermezseniz artik en onemli musteriniz olmaz. Hatta musteriniz olarak da kalmaz. O yuzden de aslinda Aramco’nun dis denetleyiciye acilmis halinin sorunlu kismi dis denetleyicinin Aramco’nun kendisine sundugu veriler disinda bir veriye ulasim gucunun olmamasi ve istenilenden baska sonuc sunamayacak olusu. Bu durumda Aramco uretim ve daha onemlisi rezerv bilgilerini rakiplerinden ve piyasadan saklayabiliyor ve bu bilgiler uzerinden manipulasyon yapabiliyor. Son zamanlarda fazlaca gordugumuz ihracat verilerinden uretim tahmini yapmak gibi oldukca kotu bir aliskanligi da bu manipulasyonda kullaniyor.

Bu durumda Aramco’nun kendisini Aramco yapan bu ozelligi kenara koyarak tum sirketini borsaya ve boylece otomatikman kamuya acmasini beklemek en hafif tabiriyle saflik olur. Benim beklentim Aramco’nin rafinaj ve tasima basta olmak uzere birkac dusuk onemde uretim alanini bir yan kurulusa baglayarak (muhtemelen yeni bir sirket kurarak) bu sirketi borsaya acmasi. Bu sirket yine muhtemelen “buyuk” denecek capta bir sirket olacak ve bazi yatirimcilar icin guzel firsatlar sunacak. Ancak Aramco’nun kendisini borsaya acmasi bi nevi intihar olacagindan ben bu ihtimali beklemiyorum.

Diyelim ki Aramco kendisini borsaya acti. Bu durumda tum uretim sahalarini bir yan sirekete aktarip bu sirketi borsaya acilan kisimdan muaf tutacaktir. Bana sorarsaniz bu kadar cok bilgi kirliliginin yapildigi bir piyasada Aramco’nun bu bilgileri gizli tutmasi iyi birsey. Google’de ilk aramada karsimiza cikmayacak bu veriler uzerine ahkam kesebilecek kisi sayisi bu haliyle 10 kisiyi gecmez Dunya capinda ki bu da piyasa icin saglikli.”

“Buradaki gorusler tamamen yazarin kendi gorusleri olup Thomson Reuters ve bagli kuruluslari kesinlikle baglamaz ve goruslerini yansitmaz.”

102 thoughts on “27 Mart 2017 – Serkan Şahin’in yorumu”

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