21 Mart 2017

Bugün Cüney Kazokoglu’nun FT’deki makalesinin ardından kendisine sorduğum sorulara cevabı aşağıda. Mevcut düşüncem, elektrikli arabalar hızlı bir “oyun değiştirici” olmasa da, OECD’deki talebe etkisine dikkat gerekir. Cüneyt çok daha sayısal ve analitik bir noktadan herkesin okuması gereken bir analizini benle paylaştı. Ayrıca Hasret Şahin’in gönderdiği makale özeti ve çevre kısmını da ekledim. Enerji güvenliği makalesi özeti net, ayrıca makaleyi açık erişime de açmışlar. Çin Myanmar boru hattı haberi önemli. Ayrıca hedge fonların pozisyon değiştirmesi. IEEFA’nın japonya raporu da gayet güzel. Hindistan petrolü Karadenizden getirse Oman’dan ucuza mal oluyor(herşey dahil). Tarih’te Rockefeller haberi. Cüneyt’e de Hasret’e de teşekkürler

Yorum – Cuneyt Kazokoglu

Bugün FT’de çıkan makalesinin ardından Cüneyt Kazokoglu (c.kazokoglu@fgenergy.com) ‘a sorduğum sorulara verdiği cevapları yayınlamama izin verdi. Yorumu aşağıda:

“Bizim bu makaleye vesile olan 2040’a yonelik raporumuzda 2040’da hafif arac filosunun %10’u elektrikli, %20’si hybrid. %65 civari benzin, %5 civari da diger yakitlar.
FT 600 kelime siniri koydugu icin fazla acamadim, burada bir iki konuya daha degineyim size:
Ornegin makalede hic gecmeyen lithium konusu var. Bugun dunyada li-ion aku uretimi 42 GWh esdegeri kadar, bunun dortte biri (~10 Gwh) kadari arabalar icin. Eger 60 kWh’lik 10 milyon araba koyarsaniz yola, 600 Gwh’lik aku uretmeniz lazim. Bu aku nerede, ne zaman, nasil uretilecek?
Bu konuyu cok baside, tek faktore indirgiyorlar. Oysa ki en az 4 faktor var: hukumetlerin subvansiyonlar nedeniyle kaybedecegi vergiler, aku teknolojisi (ki bir suru alt unsuru var: fiyati, enerji kapasitesi, uretimi, sarj suresi), arabalarin uretim kapasitesi, altyapi (dolum istasyonlari), insanlarin elektrikli arabalari kabulu vs. vs.
Ben uzun vadede elektrifikasyonun butun bu faktorlerin bir araya gelmesi ile mumkun olacagini dusunuyorum. Bu helvanin da pismesi bayagi surecek. Bu esnada buyuyen orta siniflar Asya’da araba sahibi olmak isteyecekler. Yaptigimiz hesaplara gore Cin’deki otomobil sahipligi Japonya’nin 2. Cihan harbi sonrasi izledigi yolu izlerse cok daha yuksek elektrikli araba rakamlarina ragmen milyonlarca varil/gun daha fazla benzin talebi yaratacak.
Bu konuda, ne kadar cok analiz yaparsaniz o kadar farkli ihtimal beliriyor. Dolayisiyla “peak demand” evet (2015’te FT’de yayinlanmis bir makale vardi gene bizim rakamlarimizla) ama sanki cok yakin degil gibi.

Bilgiler

Cüneyt Kazokoglu’nun FT’de çıkan yorumunda elektrikli araba geleceğinde 2040 yılındaki 1.8 milyar küresel araba stoğunun %10 elektrik %20 hibrit olacağı, sübvansiyonlar olmayınca Danimarka’daki gibi satışların bir anda %80 düştüğü, elektrikli araba üretim kapasitelerinin de düşük olduğu, satış paylarının da zayıf olduğu analitik anlatılmış

Chevron istediği fiyatı göremeyince Çin’deki açık deniz sahaların satışını durdurdu. 1 milyar $’a CNOOC’nin işlettiği Bohai körfezi varlıklarında bu fiyatı göremedi. Chevron, San Ramon California merkezli ve bu sene 10 milyar $ varlık satışı hedefliyor. Jeotermal varlıkları bile var. Büyükler dışarıdaki varlıklarından çıkarak “evde” varlık artışına gidiyor.

Koruma fonları(hedge)’le 1 milyar varillik spekülatif petrol pozisyonlarından rekor hızda çıkıyorlar. Son haftalarda ne uzun pozisyonlar 153 mv düştü. Bir haftadaki en büyük satış oldu ve neredeyse 2 günlük dünya talebine denk. Hala 820 mv pozisyon var. JP’nin 2017 fiyat tahmini 55.75$’a düştü. OPEC’in en iyi işi, konuşmamak olur diyenlerde var.

Chevron batı Avustralya’daki LNG projelerindeki yeni girişimlere son dedi. 88 milyar $ harcadığı yatırımların önce geri dönüşünü görecek. Gorgon’da 3 katar 54 milyar $’a mal oldu, 4.sü zor. Wheatstone 34 milyar$, ilk katar 2017 ortasından. Avustralya’daki LNG projelerinin toplam değeri 91 milyar$.

Mısırda, Egyptian General Petroleum Corp (EGPC)’nin başkanı Tarek Al-Hadidi yerine EGAS(Egyptian Natural Gas Holding)’in eski başkan yard Abed Ezz el-Regal geldi. Agiba Petroleum’un eski başkanı Osama el-Bakly’de EGAS’ın başkanı Mohamed Al-Masry’nin yerine geldi. Interfax:Petrol Bakanı Tarek el-Molla’nın isteği tek adamlık oluşmasın.

Kömür karşıtı raporları ile dikkat çeken IEEFA’dan, 2030’da Japonya’da güneş PV bugünki %4’ten %12’ye çıkabilir. 10 GW açık deniz rüzgar olabilir. Elektriğin %35’ini yenilenebilirden sağlayabilir. 40 GW nükleer güç eski gücüne kavuşamayabilir. Yeni yapacağı 45 yeni kömür santrali yapılamayabilir.

Bolivya’daki 20014 eylülde devreye giren Cobija güneş santrali 5 MW kapasiteye sahip, ama 2.2 MW’da lityum pil eklenmiş. Proje 11.3 milyon $’a mal olmuş, 6 milyon $’ı da Danimarka fonundan gelmiş. Bolivya’da elektrik üretimi 9 Twh, 2015’te %57si doğalgaz.

Myanmar-Çin boru hattı, 770 km, 1.5 milyar$’a mal olacak, Bengal körfezinden 400,000 v/g’a kadar petrolü Yunnan’daki 260,000v/g kapasiteli rafineriye gönderecek. Tarifeler, vergiler, liman bedelleri çözülmüş. İnşaat tamamlanmak üzere. Doğalgaz boru hattı da sırada, ama proje ekonomik mi şüpheler var.

Hindistan’a Karadeniz Novorossisk’ten ihrac edilen Ural ham petrolleri daha cazip gelmiş. Ortadoğu ekşi yerine Ural’lara yönelen en büyük iki rafinericisi Reliance ve Indial Oil Corp. Reliance Jamnagar’da dünyanın en büyük rafinerisini işletiyor, IOC’de 11 rafineri sahibi. 1.5-2$/v daha ucuza geliyor Karadeniz. Petrol olarak 4$/v ucuz

Rapor https://eetd.lbl.gov/sites/all/files/lbnl-1007226.pdf

Çevre

Çöpten sanat eseri kavramı Asya ülkelerinde gittikçe değer kazanmaya başlıyor. Atılan 1000 adet kapının, geri dönüşüm ile binalara entegrasyonu sonucunda sanat eseri olması Asya’da 2011 yılından itibaren geri dönüşüm sektöründe büyük etki yarattı (bknz: Choi Jeong-Hwa;1000 Recycled Doors Transform the Facade of a 10-Story Building in Seoul). Birçok girişimci ve mühendis, bina yapımında çöpten geri dönüştürülebilen maddeleri tercih etmeye başlamış. Bunun en ilginç örneklerinden biri de EcoARK Pavilion Taipei (Tayvan). Kültürel alışkanlıklarında çay, kola, bitkisel çay vb. gibi ürünleri plastik şişelerde tüketmeye başlayan yerel halkın sorunu ortaya çıkarmış bu çözümü. Toplanan atık plastik şişelerin artık bertaraf edilemeyecek duruma gelmesi ve yerel otoritelerin çözüm üretememesi sonucunda sektörde yeni olan birkaç mühendis, aldıkları ilk işte maliyeti azaltma yönünde bu atık şişeleri kullanmayı düşünmüşler. Birkaç deneme ve geri dönüşüm prosesini değiştirmeleri sonucunda POLLI- Bricks ortaya çıkmış. Söz konusu binanın ses geçirmez olması bir yana, depremlere ve fırtınalara karşı dayanıklı olacak şekilde dizaynı yapılmış. Bina yapımında 1,5 milyon tane plastik şişe kullanıldığı belirtiliyor. İleriki 5 yıl içerisinde, çevre teknolojileri alanında Asya şirketlerinin, Avrupa kökenli şirketlere göre küresel pazar büyümesindeki artışın daha hızlı olması bekleniyor.

Grafik

Projelerin başlangıcından devreye girmesine kadar geçen süre – Goldman Sachs

Son 1 senede petrol fiyat dalgalanması (FT)

Küresel araba stoğunun gelişimi (2010-2040) – FGE Enerji

Makale Özeti

Hasret Şahin “The concept of energy security: Beyond the Four As” makalesinin özetini paylaşıyor

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421514004960

Aleh Cherp ve Jessica Jewell’in enerji güvenliği konusunda yaptıkları araştırmalara bakıldığında, Daniel Yergin ve Dieter Helm gibi bilenen ünlü uzmanların enerji güvenliği tanımlarında yer alan eksiklikleri yakaladığını görüyoruz. Daha doğrusu, bilinen genel tanımın sadece şekilsel değil aynı zamanda mantık çerçevesinin tamamen değiştiğini. Daniel Yergin gibi stratejik alanda çalışan uzmanların daha çok doğalgaz ve petrol piyasası baz alarak tahminler ve planlamalar yapıyorlar. Aleh Cherp ve Jessica Jewell ise enerji güvenliği konusuna geleneksel yaklaşımı bir kenara bırakarak, daha farklı bir yaklaşım sergilemişler. Enerji güvenliğini, düşük kırılganlığa sahip canlı enerji sistemleri (low vulnerability of vital energy systems) olarak tanımlıyorlar. Çalışma 3 temel soru üzerine kurulmuş ve 4A ilkesine dayandırılmış. 3 temel soru ise: Kimin için güvenlik? Hangi değerler için güvenlik? Hangi tehditlere karşı güvenlik? olarak sınıflandırılmış. 4A prensibinin yaygın olmadığı düşünülse de sürdürülebilir enerji tanımında karşımıza çıkan kriterler olduğunu apaçık ortada. Bunlar: Mevcudiyet (availability), erişilebilirlik (accessibility), karşılanabilirlik (affordability), kabul edilebilirlik (acceptability). Bu kavramlara, son zamanlarda Asya bölgesinde yaşanan hızlı ekonomik büyüme ile gelen çevresel sorunların yan etkilerinin sonucunda bir kavram daha eklenmek üzere. Bu kavram ise “sağlık”.

Tarih

9 Şubat 1984 – David Rockefeller, Chase Manhattan Bank’ın İstanbul şubesini açacak (Milliyet)

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  202. Hello there! This post couldn’t be written much better! Looking through this article reminds me of my previous roommate! He continually kept preaching about this. I most certainly will send this post to him. Pretty sure he’ll have a good read. Thank you for sharing!

  203. After I initially commented I appear to have clicked on the -Notify me when new comments are added- checkbox and now every time a comment is added I recieve 4 emails with the exact same comment. Perhaps there is a means you can remove me from that service? Thanks a lot!

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  217. You’re so interesting! I do not think I’ve read through something like this before. So wonderful to discover someone with some genuine thoughts on this subject matter. Seriously.. many thanks for starting this up. This web site is one thing that is required on the web, someone with a bit of originality!

  218. I’d like to thank you for the efforts you have put in penning this site. I’m hoping to view the same high-grade content by you in the future as well. In fact, your creative writing abilities has encouraged me to get my own site now 😉

  219. Right here is the right webpage for everyone who would like to understand this topic. You know so much its almost hard to argue with you (not that I really would want to…HaHa). You certainly put a brand new spin on a subject that has been written about for decades. Wonderful stuff, just wonderful!

  220. It’s difficult to find educated people for this topic, however, you seem like you know what you’re talking about! Thanks

  221. Aw, this was an exceptionally good post. Finding the time and actual effort to create a good article… but what can I say… I hesitate a lot and don’t manage to get nearly anything done.

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