21 Şubat 2017

Grafiklerde Brent’in kompozisyonu arşivde olması gerekir. Rusya’nın 2025’e petrol üretim öngörüsü ve altın madencilik şirketlerinin kar marjları ile fiyat(hisse)/gelir oranı grafikleri var. Çözemediğim konular, alüminyum’da Çin’in üretimi artarken fiyatlar artıyor. Herhalde fiyat-arz-talep deki (stoklardan dolayı) bir gecikme var. Çin’in Koreler (K ve G) denge politikası analizi. Akıllı evler bir gecede olmuyor, tüketiciler önce evlerine akıllı ev ekipmanları alıyor. Vitol elektrikli arabalar konusunda iyimser değil. #IPWeek hashtag’ında sunum fotolarından 2020 sonrası dizel ve benzin fazlası olabilir, üzerine bir de elektrikli arabalar OECD pazarlarında beklenenden hızlı artarsa rafinericiler için problem. Tam referans bulamadığımdan yazamadım ama 40$ altı offshore petrol üretimlerinin tamamı ekonomik gibi bir söz söylenmiş.

Bilgiler

Son 12 ayda altın madencilik hisseleri %35 değer kazandı. Randgold ve Barrick –dünyanın en büyük altın madencisi-‘nin hisseleri gelirlerinin 35 katı. Rus Polyus ise 10 katı.

Dünya alüminyum üretimi Ocak’ta yıllık 62 milyon ton, Çin üretimi de aylık 2.95 mton ile rekor kırdı. Çin üretimi yıllıkta 34.7 milyon ton’a denk geliyor. Yıldan yıla %19 büyüdü.

ABD’de akıllı ev aletleri sahibi olan kişilerin ortalama 3 akıllı ampül, 2 akıllı priz ve 1 akıllı termostatı var.

Silikon tabaka(wafer) yaparken, %50si son kesme sürecinde ziyan oluyor. Dünyada bu atık miktarı 90bin ton. Silikon talaşlarının, Silikon nanoyapılara dönüştürülerek 1200 mAh/gram kapasitede lityum piller yapıldı.

ABD şeyl petrol projelerinde ortalama başabaş maliyetler 7.51$/v daha düşük. Shell üstakış direktörü Andy Brown, bir çok projedeki petrol üretim maliyetlerinin 70$/v’den 40$/v altına geldiğini söyledi

Mercuria International Petroleum Week’te Societe Generale ve ING ile blockchain projesini görüştü.

IPWeek katılımcıları, 2017’de en çok jeopolitik, sonra tedarik konularının petrol fiyatları üzerinde en önemli etkiye sahip olacağını iddia ediyor.

ABD PPA (Power Purchase Agreement)’larda GTM araştırma, 2015’de 6 c/kWh, 2016’da da 5c/kWh rakamların oluştuğunu iddia ediyor. Bunun sonucunda SunPower gibi firmalar dikkatlerini mesken pazarına kaydırmak üzere

Çin, Kuzey Kore’nin son nükleer program gelişmelerinden sonra, ülkeden kömür ihracatını durdurdu. Bu Kuzey Korenin gelirlerinin 3te 1ine mal olacak. Birkaç saat sonra da Güney Koreli Lotte’ye golf sahasını ABD’lilere anti-ballistik misil sistemi uyarısı verdi. Denge politikası

Vitol group ise elektrikli araba satışlarının beklendiği gibi olmayacağını, ilk dizel talep (karayolu) düşüşünün 2020-2025 arası, benzin talebinin ise 2025 sonrası düşebileceğini iddia etti. Vitol’e göre elektrikli araç satışları küresel satışların 2030’da ancak %6.5’na gelecek. Asya, Pasifik, Afrika ve Lat Amerika dan petrol ürünleri talebi artacak

Grafik

Brent hangi saha petrollerinden oluştu ve oluşacak (Platts, JBC Energy)

2025’e Rus petrol üretimi (eski sahalar ve yeni sahalar)

Altın madencilik firmalarının kar marjları ve hisse değerleri (FT)

 

Tarih

1970 ve 1975 Karakaya barajı yapımı başlıyor

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