16 Şubat 2017

Büyük madencilerin durumunun nasıl değiştiği şaşırtıcı. Anglo American son örneği, borçluluk oranı çok hızlı düşmüş. FT haberinde, İngiltere’nin bundan sonraki nükleerlerde 80 pound/MWh altını talep edebileceğine değinilmiş. Petromatrix’in satır aralarında ilginç analizler var, mail atanlara bülteni gönderiyor. Trump’un bilimsel danışman adayı CO2 gezegene faydalı olur demiş. Bakır da fiyat artınca dünya ekonomisi düzeliyor denirdi, şimdi ise grevler ve hükümet izinleri sorun. Norveçte yeni satışların %37si elektrikli araba. Noble’da Çinlilerin hisse alması neden stratejik. Tarihte havagazı ile ilgili trajikomik bir okuyucu mektubu var.

Yorum – Sohbet Karbuz

14-16 Subat tarihleri arasinda Kahire’de gerceklestirilen EGYPT PETROLEUM SHOW tam bir govde gosterisi oldu. Bir cok dev sirketin CEO duzeyinde temsil edildigi 3 gunluk organizasyonda Turk sirketleri varmiydi bilmiyorum ama Ingiltere 40 sirketle basi cekti. Ingiliz sirketlerin onumuzdeki 45 yilda Misir’da yapacaklari yatirim miktarinin 13 milyari tutacagi goz onune alinirsa bunu normal karsilamak gerekir. Yani bizim basinda Mısır’ın başı petrol şirketlerine borçlarıyla dertte diye cikan haberlerle; Eni, BP ve Shell’in yatirim yapmak icin birbiriyle yarisma goruntulerinin yasanmasi pek bagdasmiyor. Eni onumuzdeki 5 yilda Misir’da 10 milyar dolar yatirim yapacak. BP ise 2016 yilinda global capta en buyuk yatirimini Misir’da yapti., bu yil da oyle yapacak. Dogru, Misir’in yabanci petrol ve gaz sirketlerine 3.6 milyar dolar borcu var ama borcuna sadik. Doviz rezervi yeterli olmus olsa bugun borcunu sifira indirir. Bu arada, Dogu Akdeniz gazini takip edenlere  yakin bir zamanda Misir’da buyuk bir gaz sahasinin daha kesfedildigi haberinin gelecegini simdiden bildireyim.

Bilgiler

Hindistan 44 petrol ve gaz sahasını kapsayan 31 lisansı gelir paylaşımı modeli ile onayladı. 40 mton petrol ve 22 bcm gaz’a denk geliyor. 28 saha devlet kurumlarına gitti. 47 şirket başvurdu, 43’ü Hindistanlı.

Anglo American Plc, maden şirketi, tonaj üretiminin %99.5’ine denk gelen kömür, demir, nikel, mangan, niobium, fosfatları kapatıp, elmas, platinyum bakıra odaklanacaktı. Plan suya düştü, çünkü diğer emtialar değer kazanınca, küçülerek diğer büyüklere yem ihtimali belirdi. 1 yılda borçluluk oranları da inanılmaz düştü.

İngiltere nükleer projelerde bundan sonra Hinkley’den daha düşük rakamlar bekliyor. Toptan satış fiyatları 45 pound/MW. Hinkley anlaşması EDF’e 35 yıl boyunca 92.5 pound/MWH öneriyor. 2012’den enflasyonu hesaba katınca şimdi 100 civarında. Ama artık 80 altı fiyat istiyorlar.

Noble’da Çin hissesi. “KİTleri uluslar arası rekabetçi hale getirmek için tedarik zincirleri ve ticaret platformlarını kontrol”. Sinochem 2015’te 100 milyon ton ham ve ürün ticareti yaptı. Depolama kapasitesi 25 milyon m3, 900 tane de akaryakıt istasyonu var Asyada. Noble’ın ticaret hacmi de 135~milyon ton ham ve işlenmiş petrol ürünü

Trump’un Bilimsel danışman adayı listesindeki Princeton üniversitesi fizikçisi William Happer, artan CO2 seviyelerinin gezegene fayda sağlayacağını iddia ediyormuş. Happer karbondioksit’in faydalarını anlatan araştırma için saati 250$’a hizmet verme niyeti göstermiş. Peabody’den de 8000$ almış, bilirkişi sıfatıyla konuşmasında.

@petromatrix’den tüyolar. WTI mart kontratının süresi haftaya Salı doluyor. Fakat pazartesi ABD’de resmi tatil. Dolayısıyla yarın pozisyonların kapatılması gerekiyor. Yarın WTI ters hamle yapabilir. Küresel anlamda stoklar düşerken (-0.7mv/g) ABD’de artıyor(+0.9mv/g) makro-mikro farklılaşıyor. ABD ya üretim ya ithalatı arttırdı.

GSYİH hesaplarken petrol ürünleri ve petrol tüketimi ile ağırlıklandıran bir yöntem. Petrol kullanımının GSYİH’a ilişkisi, gelişmekte olan ekonomilerde yüksek, gelişmiş ekonomilerde daha düşük oluyor

OPEC kesintilerine rağmen küresel petrol arzı ilk altı ayda geçen senenin üzerinde olacak. Jakob(petromatrix): “küresel arz ve talep dengesi ham petrol’e karşı ham petrol olarak değil, ham petrol arzına karşılık petrol ürün talebi olarak bakılmalı”

Güneş enerjili tren taşımacılığı neden mantıklı? DC hatlar 630-750 V, güneş PV hatlar(sıralarda da ) 600V-800V üretiliyor. Bazı hatlarda elektrik yükü arttırılamadığından daha fazla yolcu kapasitesi arttırılamıyor.

Şili’deki Escondida, dünyanın en büyük bakır madeni, yılda 1 milyon ton, dünya üretiminin %5’ini üretiyor. 2500 işçi greve gitti. Oysa bakır dünya ekonomisinin sağlığın gösteren metal olarak değerlendiriliyordu. Grasberg de endonezyadan ihracat izni sorunları yaşıyor. Bakır fiyatları yükseliyorsa sebebi bu

Norveç’te geçen ay elektrikli araba satışları aylık satış hacminin %37sine ulaştı- 4800 elektrikli araç BMW i3 (622), Volvo XC90 (398), Volkswagen Passat (411)

Altın yatırımcısı (Gold Investor) dergisinde Alan Greenspanla röportajın başlığı “Altın: Nihai sigorta poliçesi”. “Enflasyon artışı altın fiyatını da arttırı.

Grafik

Dünyanın en büyük bakır madenlerinin üretim kapasiteleri (Bloomberg)

Anglo American ve diğer maden şirketlerinin borçluluk oranları hızla düştü (Gadfly)

Tarih

30 mart 1988 – Havagazı musluğundan sadece hava geliyor

 

 

 

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