15 Şubat 2017 – Serkan Şahin’in Yorumu

Aşağıdaki yorum Serkan Şahin’in hafta ortası yorumudur.

Birkac haftalik aranin ardindan gercekligime geri dondum. Bugunku yorum asagida:

EIA verilerine gore ham petrol stoklarinda 9.5 milyon varillik bir artis var. Onemli destek PADD 3’deki 6.83 milyon varillik artistan gelmis. PADD 2’de stoklarda 1.29 milyon varillik dusus var, Cushing’deki dusus 702,000 varil. Ham petrol ihracatindaki dusus de dikkat cekici. Butun bunlar uretimde bir toparlanmaya isaret ediyor mu diye merak edenlere EIA’nin yayinladigi DUC (drilled-uncompleted) raporlarini okumasini tavsiye ederim. Orada gorundugu gibi yukselen fiyatlar DUC sayisinin azalmasina degil tam tersine artmasina yol acmis. Bu beklentilerin tam tersinde. Bence bunun nedeni ABD’li ureticiler icin, ozellikle de Permian’dakiler, fiyatlar spotta basabas fiyatlara cok yakin, belki biraz ustunde, ancak forward curve hala tam operasyonel zamanda karlilik icin musait degil. Bu durumda operatorler yukselen fiyatlar ile beraber maliyetler artmadan kuyulari kazmak istiyorlar ancak sabit operasyonel maliyetleri su an icin goze almak istemiyorlar. Ayrica muhtemelen ekonomik alanlarin cogunda da uretime acik cok imkan kalmadi ve bunun yerine exploration/appraisal kuyulari ile aktivitelerini destekliyorlar. DUC sayisindaki degisim ileride ani bir uretim sicramasi olusturabilir ama kalici bir ciddi artis bence hala cok zor. Yatirimin maliyetini ABD’de su sartlarda karsilamak cok kolay olmasa gerek.”

“Buradaki gorusler tamamen yazarin kendi gorusleri olup Thomson Reuters ve bagli kuruluslari kesinlikle baglamaz ve goruslerini yansitmaz.”

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