13 Şubat 2017

Bugün Çin’in kış dönemi çelik ve alüminyum azaltma planı ile ilgili haber ilginç bilgiler ile dolu. SAFE ve Vivid economics ve EIU kömür raporu çok iyi. OPEC raporu da yayınlandı. Pazartesi daima 2-3 günlük birikim oluyor, Salı boş, Cuma akşama doğru tekrar hızlanıyor. Kemp’in grafiğini doğru anladı isem yaza değil Eylüle petrol piyasaları sıkılaşma bekliyor. Degree days-derece gün, soğukluk ölçüsü olarak Groningen gaz üretiminde kullanılıyor. Düzenlemede ABD telekomda birleşmeye izin vermeyerek ölçek ekonomisinin önüne geçen ABD’li düzenleyiciler, uzun vadede rekabet sağlamış gözüküyorlar.

Bilgiler

Bu hafta; Bugün OPEC aylık raporu, gün sonunda EIA aylık yerli petrol ve şeyl doğalgaz üretimi raporu; Salı API haftalık ABD petrol arzı raporu; Çarşamba EIA haftalık petrol ve benzin stokları; Perşembe ABD haftalık doğalgaz depo verileri; Cuma Baker Hughes haftalık rapor

Sızan taslağa göre, Çin çevre kirliliği ile mücadele için daha fazla çelik ve alüminyüm üreticisinin üretimini azaltacak. Çelik ve gübre tesisleri yarıya, alüminyum %30 düşecek, 5 bölgede 28 şehirde. Kış ısıtma sezonunda (Kasım sonu-Şubat sonu)

Bugün ki OPEC raporunda spot tanker fiyat artışlarından biri de kötü hava koşulları ve Boğazlardaki trafik söz konusu edilmiş(s1). OECD stokları Aralıkta düşmesine rağmen 5 yıl ortalamasının 299mv(216 ham,83 ürün) üzerinde.

Texas’da hala petrol ve gazın izlemesi Railroad Comission’da. Komisyon, Ocak 2016’daki 510 sondaj iznine karşı bu ocakta 956 orijinal sondaj izni verdi.

Düzenlemede iki şirketin birleşmesine izin vermemek ABD’de rekabeti getirdi. WSJ makalesi. Ölçek ekonomisi mi rekabet mi?

Reuters’den John KEmp’in bu grafiği bir önceki ayın bir sonraki aya göre premium’u. Piyasalar sanki Eylül 2017 sonrası sıkılaşma bekliyor.

Hollanda hükümeti, bir yıl içerisindeki derece günleri kullanıyor. Bir derece gün rüzgara göre düzenlenmiş sıcaklıkların 14 C (Hollanda için) ev ısıtma derecesinden düşüş demek. Groningen üretim planına göre ortalama bir yılda 2300 derece gün var. 9 Şubat’ta bu rakam 1298 derece gün oldu, 2012’den beri en yükseği.

Harvard’da uzun yıllar dayanabilecek bir akış(flow) pilli duyurusu var. Akış için kullanılan molekülleri suda çözlüebilen yaparak 1000 defa şarjda sadece kapasitesinin %1ini kaybeden bir pil tanıtılıyor. Suda çözülebilen ferrocene.

Enerji üretkenliğinde %2.5-3 artışlar ekonomik büyüme için şart. Sanayideki senaryo ilginç: Çin’deki talep %36 daha düşük çünkü Çindeki sanayi yeni sanayileşen ülkelere kayacak. Rapor/sunum çok iyi

Securing America’s Future Energy (SAFE)’in çeyreklik Enerji Güvenliği raporunda OPEC’in Pazar payı kavgasının ABD istihdamına verdiği zarar gösterilmiş. ABD’deki petrol ve istihdamının 3’te 1’i (212bin kişi) işini kaybetmiş.

The Economist EIU’nun “Avrupanın elektrik geleceğinde kömürün rolü” raporu burada.Almanya’da 1990’larda kömürün payı %55’lerin üzerindeyken 2013’te %45,2016’da %40 civarına düşmüş.Almanya ve Polonya’daki 5 GW inşaattaki kömür kapasitesi hariç Avrupada yeni kapasite yok gibi. Daha önceki gibi bir geri dönüş beklemiyorlar

Fransız Başkan adayı Emmanuel Macron (Le Figaro-Google Translate), şeyle ve açık deniz üretimine karşı. Kömür santrallerini de kapatmayı planlıyor. Enerjinin %75’ini de nükleerden elde edilmesini iyi olarak değerlendirmiyor. 2030’a %32 yenilenebilir enerji için 26000 MW kapasiteye izin verecek.

Grafik

2016’da en yüksek rüzgar kapasiteleri ve toplam kapasite (Wind Power Monthly, Goksel Güngör üzerinden)

Kişi başı Enerji ve GSYİH arasındaki yapısal ilişkinin kırılması gerek (VividEconomics)

OPEC Politikaları ve ABD petrol sektör istihdamı (FUSE)

İki veri setinin hikayesi – OPEC ülkeleri – kim ne kadar üretim değiştirdim demiş, ikincil kaynaklar ne demiş.(Bloomberg)

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