30 Ocak 2017

Petrolde rekor uzun pozisyonlar ne demek? Her fiyat düşüşü öncesi rekor pozisyonlara rastlanıyor denmiş. Vakit ayırıp okunacak yazı NYT’in ABD’nın ultra muhafazakar çiftçilerinin iklim değişikliği demeden ekolojik konulardaki eylemleri.Piyasada orta-ekşi petrol azlığı var. BP 3d yazıcıların, taşıma sektörüne etkisini inceleyecek. Artık ucuz ülkelerde yaptırarak diğer ülkelere dağıtmak yerine printerlar ile yerinde üretim ne kadar etkiler? ABD’de tüm ithalata %20 vergi gelse, petrol sektörünü canlandırır ama toplam tüketici faydası? Grafikler pil teknolojisindeki maliyet düşüşleri üzerine

Bilgiler

BP’nin İngiliz merkez bankasından transfer ettiği ekonomist Spencer Dale, gelecekteki yıkıcı değişimlerden 3 boyutlu yazıcıların taşımacılık talebine etkisini inceleyecek. 2016’da 455,000 olan 3d yazıcıların 2020’de 6.7 milyona çıkması bekleniyor. 3d yazıcı, ürünlerin dünyanın herhangi bir yerinde yeniden üretilebilmesi demek. Taşıma talebini yer.

ABD’nin ekmek sepeti Kuzey merkez Kansas’ta çiftçiler iklim değişikliği terimine ifrit olsalarda, “hava olayları” vs başlığı altında aslında aynı konuları tartışıyorlar. Fakat olay o kadar politize ki konuşmak bile zor. ABD’de her sene 1.7 milyar ton üst toprağı kaybediyor. Bu toprak nemi tuttuğından “notill farming” – toprağı hazırlamadan tarım da var.

Mısır Zohr’da üretimi 900 milyon feet küp ile başlatarak 2017 sonuna 1 milyar’a 2019 sonunda da 2.7 milyara ulaşmayı hedefliyor.

İngiltere’de elektrik kesintileri kriz ihtimalinin abartıldığı, kapasite mekanizmalarının bunu sağladığı tartışılıyor. “Sektör düşük yedek kapasite sebebiyle çok gürültü yapsa da, ihtiyaç olduğunda fazlaca kapasiteyi sağlayabiliyor” demiş. Kim? Energy Intensive Users Group başkanı. Kapasite açık arttırmaları 2-3 milyar sterlin/yıl’a mal oluyor.

ABD’de Trump sonrasi düzenleyici otorite FERC’ün başkanı Norman Bayistifa etti, yerine Trump tarafından vekaleten Cheryl LaFleur’e görev verildi. Bay’in istifası sonrası FERC’in sadece iki üyesi kaldı ve bir üye daha atanana kadar toplanamayacak veya karar alamayacak.

Rusya’nın Arktik’teki Prirazlomnoye’den üretimi (Arktikteki ilk ve tek), 2013’te başlamıştı. 2015’te 5.18 milyon v üretimi 2016’da 15.7 mv’e çıktı. Arktik petrolü yüksek yoğunluklu ve daha çok yol yapımı ve havacılık sektörlerinde kullanılıyor.

ABD’de tüm ithalata %20 vergi gelirse, Meksika körfezine yakın rafinerilere yarar getirirken, ham petrol ithalatından oluşan 30 milyar $ vergiyi de hava yolları ve rafinericiler ödeyecek ve yansıtacak. Goldman Sachs’a göre ABD petrol arama ve üretim firmaları 20 milyar $ daha çok gelir elde edebilecek. Ortalama tüketiciye maliyeti 300-400$

Piyasada orta ve ekşi ham petrol eksiği var. OPEC’in 1.8 mv/g kesintisi en büyük sebep gösteriliyor. “Ekşi ham petrol çok ama çok değerli”, Andrew Wilson, BRS brokers enerji lideri. “Önümüzdeki aylarda Avrupanın oldukça büyük bir ekşi ham petrol açığı görmesini bekliyorum. ABD’nin ağır petrolü bile Japon alıcı bulmuş.

İngiltere’de enerji şirketlerinin yönetim kurullarındaki kadın sayısı %9. 2014 ile aynı. Ama kadın çalışan sayısı daha az. EDF nükleer santralde çalışacak bayanlar için sinema reklamı da veriyor. Ağır sektörlerde kadınlar gelecek görmüyor gibi

Petrol uzun pozisyonlar (satın alma yönü) yeni rekoru 421 milyon varile ulaşmış. Ama tüm alım hevesi piyasada karşılık bulmuş olabilir, ardından hızlı düşüş gelebilir. Bazı analistler ise daha çok heves var 80$’e gider demiş.

Liaoning, Kuzey doğu Çin bölgesi, 2011-2014 yılları arasında gelirlerini %20 daha yüksek göstermiş.

Grafik

Pil depolamanın ekonomisi daha da mümkün hale geliyor (BCG)

Pil fiyatlarının düşüşü (BNEF)

 

 

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