27 Ocak 2017

Hindistan’da 648 MW tek bir lokasyondaki güneş santrali, Çinliler 850 MW’ı yakında tamamlayıp geçecek. Otonom arabalarda müşteriler o kadar sıcak olmayabilir, bu tip teknolojier yıkıcı da olsa geçiş adım adım olabilir. Atlantic Council’in yeni yönetime doğal gaz politika önerilerinin son kısmı Türkiye için de ilginç mesajlar içeriyor. Kanada’da kule başına üretkenlik daha yavaş fakat son yıllarda hızlı artmış. Petrol piyasalarını analiz ederken çıpa ve dalga yöntemini kullanıyorum, çıpa ne ? (opec anlaşması) dalga ne? (anlaşmaya uyum). Çıpa trendi etkilerken, dalga trend üzerindeki oynaklığı etkiliyor. bugün OPEC ülkelerinden biri ile ilgili Oxford Analitica artacak şiddet uyarısı yapmış.

Bilgiler

Hindistan’ın güney eyaleti Tamil Nadu’da bir noktadaki en büyük güneş santrali 648 MW kapasite ile tamamlandı. 10 km2 alanda, 661 milyon $, 2.5 milyon panel, 576 inverter ve 6000 km kablo kullanıldı. 8500 kişi ile 6 ay sürmüş. Çin yakında 850 MW’ı 27 km2’de inşa edecek. Çok fazla suya ihtiyaç olacak camları silmek için – yeni iş kolu

Kanadadaki petrol ve gaz kule üretkenlikleri ABD’ye kıyasla son yıllarda çok hızlı artmış. ABD’de Permian’da 4 yılda 4 katı olmuş(150 BOE’den 600 BOE). Kanada’nın Batı Kanada Sedimentar Baseni (WCSB)’deki Pembina Cardium petrol ve Montney gaz üretkenlikleri daha da artabilir. Gelecek birkaç yılda iki katın üzerinde artabilir.

Otonom sürüşte herşey güzel de olsa kamuoyu algısı hala negatif. Deloitte’un anketinde 17 ülkede 22000 müşteri üzerinden şüphecilik ağır basıyor. “Otomobil üreticileri daha fazla yatırım yapma baskısı altında ama geri dönüşler daha belirsiz”. Amerikalıların %75’i otonom araçların güvenilir olmayacağını belirtmiş. Önce tüketici güveni

2016’daki en önemli 13 enerji (ABD’de)gelişmesinden benim önemli bulduklarım: Araba üreticilerinin mobilite hizmetlerini kabullenmeleri, ABD ilk deniz rüzgar türbini, şirketlerin temiz enerjiyi kabulü ve hedefleri, FERC 745 ile talep katılımının federal seviyede düzenlenmesi ve Paris anlaşması

Yeni ABD yönetimi için Doğal gaz diplomasisi stratejisi” raporunun son 3 paragrafı ilginç. Boğazlardan LNG geçişine izin verilmeli gibi bir anlam çıkıyor. ABD’de doğal gaz ve LNG’deki stratejik pozisyonunu işbirlikleri, varlıkların (LNG terminalleri vs) artmasını sağlayarak stratejik pozisyonlanmalı

ABD yönetiminin öncelikli 50 projesinin toplam hacmi 137.5 milyar dolar, %50 özel sektör yatırımı hedefleniyor. Enerji projeleri Doğu elektrik hatları (720 mil, 2.5 milyar $), TransWest HVDC hattı(3 milyar$), Wyoming Rüzgar projesi (+1000 türbin, 5milyar$), Atlantik yakası gaz boru hattı (5 M$), California enerji depolama ve şebeke modernizasyonu

Güney Sudan (2011’de Sudan’dan ayrıldı), petrol üretimini 2017/2018 döneminde 2 misline-290,000v/g’e çıkarmak istiyor. 2013’e kadar üretimi 245,000 v/g’e çıkaran firmalar CNPC, Petronas ve Hindistan’ın ONGC Videsh’iydi. Geçmişte üretimlerini 350,000 v/g’e kadar çıkardıklarını iddia ediyorlar.

ABD’nin, Meksika’dan aldığı petrolün %97si ağır Maya ham petrolü~500,000v/g. Meksikanın ABD’de gaz alımları ise aylık 4 bcm’e yaklaşmış, grafikte mevsimsellik çok zayıf. ABD’nin Arap körfezinden alımları daha fazla ağır petrollere kaymış durumda, malum hafifler elinde çokça var.

BP enerji görünümüne göre petrol talebi 110 mv/g’ü 2035’de bulur. OECD ülkelerinde talep 8 mv/g gibi düşer, 23 mv/g de gelişmekte olan ülkelerden gelir. Üretim, ABD, Kanada, Rusya ve OPEC’ten.

Grafik

BP’ye göre 100 milyon içten yanmalı otonom araç petrol talebini 400,000 v/g azaltır. (%25 verimlilik ile)

Petrol ve gaz kulelerinin verimlilikleri (ABD ve kanada) –ARC Energy

 

 

 

 

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