26 Ocak 2017

Petrol ürünleri petrol fiyatını belirler gibi. Benzindeki stoklar fiyat düşüş sinyali olabilir. Suudi Arabistan rezervlerini bağımsız firmaya belirletti ve onaylattı, sonra açıklayacak. Petrochina şeyl üretimini arttırırken, IHS’in refracturing’i anlattığı yazısı önemli, şeyl’de maliyet düşmeye devam edebilir: yeni kuyu açmadan mevcut yatay kuyularda yeniden çatlatma teknolojisi. Başarı oranları yüksek. İşte gelişmemiş ülkeler petrol bulunca bela oluyor söylemlerine karşı ABD eyaletlerinin de petrol fiyat düşüşü ile girdiği resesyon grafiği aşağıda. Karbon vergisi topla sosyal yardım yap, ilginç.

Bilgiler

Petrol ürünleri piyasası 6-8 hafta öncesine göre daha kötü durumda”, Pacific Investment Management’tan Sharenow’ın sözü, eğer tüketiciler daha fazla petrol ürünü tüketmez ise, 2016yı tekrar yaşarız. Stok seviyeleri hala yüksek iken benzin talebi ABD’de 15 yılın dibinde. 22 yılın en yükseği 31 günlük talebi karşılıyor benzin.

IHS Markit’e göre, refracturing (tekrar çatlatma ile) tekrar kuyu açmak yerine mevcut kuyularda tekrar çatlatma yapmak yeni bir verimlilik kaynağı. 3 temel teknik var : Diversion, CT Frac, Mekanik izolasyon. Makale detaylı şekillerle anlatıyor.

Suudi Arabistan rezervlerini Gaffney, Cline &Associates tespit etti. Suudi Arabistan yılda 3 milyar varil petrol çıkarıyor. 266.5 milyar varil rezervi olduğu tahmin ediliyor. Exxon’un 25 milyar varil rezerve karşılık 350 milyar $ piyasa değerine sahip.

EIA’e göre 2016Ç4’te stoklar 2 mv/g arttı. 2018’e kadar hem üretim hem tüketim artacak ama tüketim biraz daha hızlı. Bu tip tahminleri okurken, politik olduklarını unutmamak lazım. Stokların hızla düştüğü bir dönem öngörmüyorlar.

EPRI’nin microgrid raporu paralı ama özetten anladığımız farklı microgrid modelleri var. Kısaca güneş PV gibi, tüketici microgridleri mi, dağıtım şirketi microgridleri mi? Ama şebeke dayanıklılığı için etkili yollardan biri olarak görülüyor.

Çin yurtdışına para çıkışlarını engellemeye başlayınca, İngiltere, Amerika ve diğer piyasalarda Çinli alımları düştü.

PetroChina 2020’ye kadar Sichuan eyaletinde 10 bcm/yıl şeyl gaz üretimi hedefliyor. Geçen sene 2.3 bcm/yıl aynı yerden şeyl gaz üretti. Çoğunlukla 120 kuyudan ve 220 km boru hattı ile. Önümüzdeki 4 yılda 600 kuyu planlıyor.

Brookings’deki makalede, karbon vergileri sonucu düşük gelirlinin uğrayacağı negatif etkiyi azaltmak için gelirleri sosyal yardıma kaydırmanın etkisi anlatılıyor. Makale kısaca bu diğer gelir gruplarına çok zarar vermeden fayda üretir diyor.

Sadece Araplar, Ruslar petrol gelirleri düşünce resesyona girmiyor. ABD’de 8 petrol eyaletinden 6sı petrol fiyat düşüşü ile resesyona girmiş. Sadece Montana ve Texas’da o da çok sınırlı büyüme görmüş.

La nina, Güney doğu Asya’ya yağışlı hava, Kuzey Amerika’ya sıcak yaz ve soğuk kış, Arjantin ve Brezilya’ya kuraklık getiriyor. Tüm bir emtia fiyatlarını etkiliyor. 2016/2017 zayıf La nina olarak kapanıyor. Pasifik okyanusunun üst 300 m ısınmaya başlamış. 2017 sonuna doğru El Nino görebiliriz.

Grafik

Dünyanın en yüksek petrol rezervlerine sahip ülkeler ve şirketler (WSJ)

Sadece Araplar ve Ruslar değil, ABD’nin gelişmiş eyaletleri de petrol fiyatları düşünce resesyona giriyor. (Oilpro)

 

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