22 Ocak 2017 – Serkan Şahin’in yorumu

Aşağıdaki yorum Serkan Şahin’in yorumudur:
“OPEC Anlasmasi sonrasi telasin yarisinin anlasmanin bir sonraki OPEC toplantisina kadar surdurulup surdurulemeyecegi, yarisinin ise bir sonraki OPEC toplantisindan sonra anlasmanin yururlukten kalkamasi durumunda OPEC uyesi olan ve olmayan ulkelerin uretim seviyelerinin tekrar hangi noktaya gelebilecegi uzerine yogunlastigini goruyorum. Anlasmaya tabi olan ulkeler arasindan OPEC uyesi olmayanlarin icinde muhtemelen tek dikkat ceken ulke ise Rusya. Rusya’nin uretim kapasitesi ve teknik olarak ureitimini ne kadar daha artirabilecegi merak konusu.  Ben ozellikle yine burada size uretim verileri veya tahminleri vermeyecegim. Ancak biraz beyin jimnastigi olsun biraz da beraber bir analist gibi dusunelim istedigim icin bazi sorular sorup cevaplarini vermeden birakacagim. Bu sorulara dogru verilecek cevaplarla Rusya’nin ileriki hamlelerini kendiniz de tahmin edebilirsiniz.

Cogu defa cok yanlis sekilde Rusya’nin ve Sovyetler Birligi zamanindaki uretim kapasitesinin kiyaslandigini goruyorum. Sovyetler Birligi’nin elindeki buyuk silahlardan Samotlor ve Romashkinskoye bugun Rusya’nin elinde yok. Dev Samotlor sahasinin tukenmislik orani bugun %90’in uzerinde. Vankor ve Priobskoye gibi sahalar bugun Samotlor ve Romashkinskoye’ye destek vermeye calisiyor ancak durumlari Rusya’yi Sovyetler’in elindeki guc gibi bir guce ulastirmak icin yetersiz. Peki bu durumda Rusya teknik olarak operasyonel maliyetleri daha yuksek ve uretimi daha hizli azalma egilimindeki orta seviye sahalar ile bu uretim artisini daha ne kadar destekleyebilir? Ayrica Rusya’nin gittikce kuzeye ve doguya kayan uretimi onu daha maliyetli bir uretim profiline suruklerken. Kuzeye gittikce artan kondensat ve dogalgaz sivilari uretimi ise hem talebin dusuklugu hem de bati rotalari icin hayati olan Urals petrolunun incelmesi sorunsalini ortaya cikariyor. Bu durumda Rusya Urals’in artan “kalite farki (quality premium)” nedeniyle ozellikle Akdeniz piyasasinda yasayacagi rekabet sorununu nasil asacak? Artan ic ve dis fuel oil talebini karsilamak icin dah agir petrol kaynaklarina ihtiyac duyan bir ulkenin bunca hafif saha sivisini ham petrol uretimi icerisinde gostermesinin maliyeti ne kadar daha karsilanabilir ve bunun icin optimum ham petrol fiyati nedir? Rusya operatorlerinin artan dis operasyonlarinda ihtiyac duydugu yatirimi dikkate alirsak ic operasyonlara ayrilabilecek yatirim miktari nedir ve Rus operatorler icin uluslararasi operasyonlarinin basabas (breakeven) fiyati nedir? Bu uluslararasi operasyonlardan elde edilen petrol turlerinin ne kadari yerli Rus petrolune rakiptir ve bunlarin hepsi icin optimum kar saglayacak pazar payi nedir?

İşi daha teknik ve karmasik yapacak baska sorular da buraya eklerim ancak hizli bir sekilde “bir cirpida” analiz yapabilen arkadaslarin gozden kacirdigi bazi sorulari buraya koyarak sadaca Rusya degil diger petrol ureten ulkeler ile ilgili tahminlerin hangi metodoloji ile yapilmasi gerektigine dikkat cekmek istedim. Bu metodoloji bir kisiyi gercek anlamiyla “analist” yapan metodolojidir.”

“Buradaki gorusler tamamen yazarin kendi gorusleri olup Thomson Reuters ve bagli kuruluslari kesinlikle baglamaz ve goruslerini yansitmaz.”

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