17 Ocak 2017

Bugün sadece Bassam Fattouh’un Oxford Energy sunumunu dikkatlice incelemek yeterli. Bakır fiyatlarını takip eden analistlerin sendikal faaliyetleri izlemesi ve bir %5-7 “kesinti kabulü” eklemeleri ilginç. Dana Gas Mısır’da yeni bir gaz keşfi 2017’de açıklayabilir. Arpa-e deniz yosunu üretimi başlığı açmış. Chicago üniversitesinden bir makalede ABD’de elektrik piyasalarını düzenleme yerine piyasalar vasıtasıyla(özellikle üretim) fiyatlanmasının yıllık 3 milyar $ artı gelir sağladığı hesaplanmış. ABD’de şeyl canlanmaya başladıkça, başabaş fiyatlar da yükseliyor, çünkü petrol sahası hizmetlerine talep arttıkça onların fiyatları yükseliyor, yani şeyl güçlendikçe şeyl maliyetleri de artabiliyor. Tarih kısmında 1983 yılına ait 4 boru hattı haberi var.

Bilgiler

Oxford Energy’de Bassam Fattouh’un sunumundan ana mesaj: Suudiler Pazar payı savaşına girdiklerinde maliyetin bu kadar olacağını tahmin etmiyordu. Bu maliyet faydasını aştı. Şimdi bakacakları ise temel olarak ABD şeyl’in fiyat tepkisi

Bu sene işçi ve sendikal görüşmelerden dolayı, dünyanın en büyük bakır madenlerinde üretim durabilir ve sekteye uğrayabilir. Bakırın fiyatı 6000$/ton’a kadar çıkabilir. Şili’de işçiler zaten grevle tehdit etmişler. Bakır madenciliği kesintilere çok açık, analistler “kesinti marjı” olarak %5-7 öngörülerine ekliyorlar.

Dana Gas CEO’su Patrick Allman-Ward’e göre 1 milyar varil’e yakın depolanmış petrol sebebiyle arz-talep dengelemesi sürer demiş. Mısır’da 3 blokta çok önemli bir kuyu kazıyorlar, çok umut verici haberler duyabiliriz. Eğer başarılı olursa trilyonlarca cubic feet seviyesinde olacak, fakat daha başındayız.

BP’nin önceliği, büyümeye geri dönüş. Trump’un etkisi için ise beklemek gerek. Planlamalarını 55$’a göre yapmış BP.

Geçen sene ticari deniz yosunu üretimi 25 milyon ton’u bulmuş. Arpa-E, ABD enerji bakanlığının ArGe ajansı, Asya’daki deniz yosunu üretimine bakarak, macroalgae üretimi konusunda proje başlığı açmış. Tatlı su yok, toprak yok, gübre yok. ABD yılda 300 milyon ton kuru yosun üretebilir. MARINER programına Türkiye’den de başvurulabilir

Asya Pasifik’de talep bu yıl 800,000-900,000v/g artması beklenirken, bölgenin üretimi de 330,000v/g düşecek. Üretim ve tüketim arası fark 27 mv/g’e çıkacak. Asya Pasifik bu sene petrol ithalatına 500 milyar$ harcayacak. Bu arada şeyl canlanmaya başladıkça petrol servis hizmetleri de artıyor. Yani şeyl fiyat esnekliği asimetrik gibi.

Ürdün sene sonuna kadar 300 MW yenilenebilir proje açacak. 2020’de elektriğin %20sini yenilenebilirden üretmeyi düşünüyor. Suudi Acwa grubu pazartesi 5.88 cent/kWh’e Ürdünle güneş anlaşması yaptı.

Chicago üniversitesi enerji politikası ensititüsü raporuna göre elektrik piyasaları hizmet maliyeti düzenlemesine göre daha maliyet etkin. 1999-2012 yıllarını kapsayan çalışmada hizmet maliyeti (cost of service)’e göre piyasalar yıllık 3 milyar $ üretim maliyetlerini düşürmüş.

Grafik

ABD 5 temel şeyl alanında petrol sahası hizmet fiyat artışlarına göre başabaş fiyatlar (WSJ)

Tarih

10 Haziran 1983 – Milliyet, “10 yılda 851 kilometre boru hattı döşenecek”

 

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  412. This is the right webpage for everyone who wishes to find out about this topic. You realize so much its almost hard to argue with you (not that I really would want to…HaHa). You definitely put a new spin on a topic which has been written about for many years. Excellent stuff, just excellent!

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