16 Ocak 2017 – Serkan Şahin

Aşağıdaki yorum Serkan Şahin‘indir.

“Irak’ın sözde üretim kesme kararının ardından Avrupa ve Asya’daki bazı müşterilerine Şubat teslim kargolardaki taahhüt miktarlarına bağlı kaldığının ortaya çıkması bazılarında kafakarışıklığına yol açmış gibi görünüyor. Buradaki karışıklığın bir numaralı sebebi muhtemelen tahhütlü kargoların ayrıntılılarının paylaşılmamış olması. Bu kargoların ayrıntıları bende de yok ancak benim tahminim şu yönde; Bu kargoların muhtemelen çok büyük bölümü Basrah Light kargolar. Irak’ın üretiminde azalmaya gittiği blend de muhtemelen Basrah Heavy. Ayrıca North Oil Company’nin Musul kargolarında da azalma görmek şaşırtıcı olmaz. Hal böyle olunce aslında cümle içerisinde arz edilen fiziki miktar azalmıyor ve hatta artıyor gibi görünse de toplam miktarın azaldığı anca toplam ihracatta Basrah Light payının arttığı bir ortam var önümüzde. Yani bu da demek oluyor ki Irak, Iran ve Suudi Arabistan ile olan rekabet gücünü kaybetmiş durumda değil. Suudi Arabistan’ın da fiziki üretimde Manifa gibi sorunlu ham petrol türlerini piyasadan azaltacağını bekliyorum. Zaten Manifa’nın talebi neredeyse yoktu. Fiziki olarak arzdan çekilmesi kelime oyunundan başka bir şey değil.

Venezuala petrolü muhtemelen ABD ve Çin arasındaki en ciddi anlaşmazlık konularından birisi olacak. Düşük seyreden fiyatlardan dolayı daha fazla Venezuela petrolü Çin’e akarken, üretim kapasitesi de krizin etkileri ile ciddi şekilde zorlanıyor. Hala maliyetlerden ve lojistik avantajlardan dolayı Kanada petrolüne göre pozisyonunu korusa da Keysetone XL gibi projelerin Trump döneminde bağlanması ile ABD’nin Venezuela petrolüne olan talebi azalabilir. Bu durumda ABD’den kalan arz Hindistan’a Rosneft eliyle ulaşırsa İran’ın durumunu çok merak ediyorum.”

“Buradaki gorusler tamamen yazarin kendi gorusleri olup Thomson Reuters ve bagli kuruluslari kesinlikle baglamaz ve goruslerini yansitmaz.”

50 thoughts on “16 Ocak 2017 – Serkan Şahin”

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