21 Aralık 2016

Arabalar reklamlarındakinin çok üzerinde tüketiyorlar. FT’ye göre bu 2012’de %28 iken şimdi %42 daha fazla tüketimlere varmış durumda. Mısır ve Eni LNG tesisi konusunda anlaşırsa, İsrail gazı önündeki opsiyonlar daha da daralır. Morgan Stanley’im emtia bölümü bayağı daralmış(1/3’e düşmüş). Lityum üretimi notları ilginç. Serkan Şahin bugün hafta ortası yorumunda EIA verilerinde nelere dikkat ettiğini, Baker Hughes da çokça retweet ettiğimiz toplam rakamların nasıl bakılması gerektiğine örnek veriyor. Bugün güzel raporlar vardı. 2014-2016 petrol fiyat krizi, sıkı petrol gelişmeleri ve teknik analizi. Rapor/kitap özeti yazacak arkadaşlara da yer açabilirim-rapor önerebilirim.

Yorum – Serkan Şahin

Aşağıdaki yorum Serkan Şahin’in hafta ortası petrol piyasası yorumudur:

“EIA verilerinde bu haftanin en ilginc verisi PADD 2 ticari ham petrol stoklari 1.02 milyon varil artarken Cushing stoklarinin 245,000 varil dusmesi. Hem ulke genelindeki hem de PADD 3’deki urun stoklarindaki dusus ile beraber bu veri bana ABD’de uretilen ve ithal edilen petrolun dogrudan rafinaja gittigini soyluyor ki bu ABD’de bir talep artisi demek olabilir. Toplam petrol ithalatindaki 1.1 milyon varillik artis da sanki bunu destekliyor gibi. Rafineriler artan fiyatlarla beraber mevsimsel etkinin birlesmesinden olusan bir karlilik bayrami yasiyorlar sanirim. Christmas zamaninin tadini rafinericiler cikariyor diyebiliriz.

ABD’de hala uretim artisi basladi demek icin cok erken. Baker Hughes verilerini cok yanlis yorumlayanlar var (aslinda dogru yorumlayabilen cok az). Buradan bir genel tavsiyede bulunayim, ozellikle ABD verilerini incelerken toplam sayilara bakmayin. ABD yapisi geregi bolgesel ciddi farkliklari olan bir yer. Toplamdaki degisim kendi basina bir anlam icermez. O yuzden Baker Hughes toplam kuyu sayisinin artmis olmasinin hicbir anlami yok. Ben Colorado ve ana Midland basin disi Teksas’ta hareketlenmenin arttigini goruyorum. Colorado gaz talebi kaynakli bence. Midland disi hareketlenme de “drilled uncompleted” bazi kuyularn breakevenlarina ulasilabildiginin gostergesi diye dusunuyorum. Saha imtiyazlarini kurtarmak icin artan fiyatlarin avantaja donusturulmesi cabasi da olabilir. Gecen hafta Midland basin icin bir artis gorduk ama heyecanlanmak icin cok erken. Zaten Teksas’tan simdiden maaslarin ve catlatma kumlarinin zamlandigi haberleri gelmeye basladi. Maliyetlerdeki artis fiyatlardaki artisi bir sure daha tuketecek gibi. Tam toparlanma icin Ocak sonrasi ihtimalli ama Kanada petrolunun Cushing ve Korfez’e gelisinde kolaylik olusmadikca, Permian ve ozellikle Eagle Ford petrolunun ragbet gormesi zor. Belki Venezuela petrol imdatlarina yetisir.”

“Buradaki gorusler tamamen yazarin kendi gorusleri olup Thomson Reuters ve bagli kuruluslari kesinlikle baglamaz ve goruslerini yansitmaz.”

Bilgiler

TV’de araba reklamlarında tüketimle ilgili altta geçen yazılar hep yalan. Yıllar geçtikçe daha da yalan oluyor FT’ye göre. 2012’de arabalar yollarda testlere göre %28 daha çok tüketirken, geçen sene satılanlar testlere göre %42 daha çok tüketiyormuş. Gerçek denemelerde reklamlara göre Mercedes %54, Audi ve Smart %49 daha çok tüketiyor.

Pakistan’da yazın 5000 MWlara varan ve uzun süren kesintiler oluyor. Doğalgaz üretimi 2012’de 39.4 mtep oldu. Hükümet 2025’e 60 milyon ton ile Japonya’dan sonra ikinci olmayı hedefliyor. Danışmanlar katılmıyor, en fazla 5 veya 20 mton diyor. Devlet bankası raporunda LNG ithalatının ülkeye fayda sağladığı belirtilmiş.

Japonya bugün resmi olarak 8.5 milyar $’a mal olan Monju hızlı besleyici “fast breeder” (bildiğimiz reaktörlerden değil) projesine son verdi. Bu reaktörlerde diğer reaktörlerin atıklarından alınan plütonyum yakılacaktı. Reaktörün sökülmesi de 3.2 milyar $ tutacak.

Mısır ile Eni arasında yeni bir anlaşma(Mısır basını oldu diyor) devreye girerse, Damietta LNG(sıvılaştırma)’de İsrail’in Tamar sahasındaki gaz için boş kapasite kalmayacak.Tesis 1 milyar$a mal oldu, %80 Union Fenosa Gas (UFG)’nin %20 Mısır devletinin. Delek, Avner ve Isramco Negev bunun üzerine Tel Aviv Borsasına UFG ile görüşüyoruz bilgisi verdiler.

ABD’de 2010’daki Dodd-Frank kanunundaki Volcker kuralı sonrası, emtia ticaretindeki daralmanın örneği. Morgan Stanley’in fiziksel emtia riski 2011’deki 9.7 milyar $’dan 179 milyon $’a, 400 personeller yıllık 3 milyar $ gelirden, 150 personelle 1 milyar $’a düştü. Büyük değil akıllı ve küçük oyun. Trump Dodd-Frank’ı devre dışı bırakmayı vaad etti.

Gürcistan elektrik piyasası analizinde, artan talep ile, eğer komşu ülkelerdeki elektrik fiyatı 80$/MWh üzeri olursa yapılan büyük hidrolar maliyet etkin oluyor. Elektrik talebinin 2015’ten 2025’e 10.9 TWh’dan 19.6 TWh’a çıkması bekleniyor. Alman ekonomi takımı Gürcistan’ın ithalat ile talebini yönetmesini ucuz ama riskli buluyor.

ABD Başkanı Obama dün, Arktik’teki Chukchi ve Beaufort denizlerinde büyük kısımları petrol ve gaz aramacılığına kapattı. Kanada başbakanı ile ortak açıklama ile 5 yılda bir tekrar gözden geçirilecek. Shell geçen sene milyarlarca dolar harcadıktan sonra Chukchi Denizinde aramayı durdurmuştu. Beyaz Saray açıklaması

Energyfuse’da 2016’nın en iyi 10 haberinden özet kısmından; İran’dan Fransa’ya bir tanker Süveyş kanalından 19 gün, Afrika’dan 34 gün sürüyor.

Bloomberg Emtia Endeksi 2010’dan beri negatif büyümüştü, 2016’da %10 artış gösterdi. Bu sene enerji ve endüstri metalleri en iyi performansı gösterdi. Endeksin %63’ü enerji ve metal. Altın 7 yılın dibi 1000$’a düşerse hızlı toparlar. Metalleri yıldız yapan ise çinko ve bakır

Öbekzinciri (blockchain)lerle enerji paylaşımı konusunda Siemens ve LO3’ün Brooklyn projesi ilginç. Haberin devamında ABD’de (evlerinde/bodrumda) marihuna yetiştirenlerin elektrik talebinin %1’ine denk geldiği de var.

Orocobre Limited CEO’su Richard Seville, Lityum üreticilerinin küçüklerinden. Geniş bir röportajı var. Lityum piyasası uzun bir süre sıkı gidecek, ilk fiyat yumuşaması 2020 gibi. Lityum projelerinde fizibilitenin tamamlanması 2.5 yılı bulabiliyormuş.

Norveç devlet fonu –dünyanın en büyüğü 870 milyar $-, daha önce 44 şirkete yatırım listesinden çıkardıktan sonra 15 tane daha kömüre dayalı şirketi yatırım listesinden çıkardı. Bak sonra ucuz kömür varlıkları toplarsanız…..

BlackRock’ın (eski) portföy yöneticisi Mark Lyttleton, içerden bilgi ile enerji şirketleri ile ilgili ticaretten 43000$ kazanmış, mahkeme 1 yıl hapis cezası vermiş.

Grafik

Bloomberg Emtia Endeksindeki ağırlıklar (sarı alan) ve yıllık/çeyreklik performanslar

Tarih

Kış saatine de çok itiraz vardı, 24 Kasım 1987 – Milliyet

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