18 Aralık 2016 – Serkan Şahin’in Yorumu

Haftaya başlarken Serkan Şahin’in petrol yorumu:

“OPEC/non-OPEC anlasmasi sonrasi yine tartismanin toplam fiziki arz uzerinden dondugunu goruyorum. Ayni seylerin tekrari gibi olacak ama acikliga kavusturmakta fayda var. Ham petrol, rafine edilmeden hicbir degeri olmayan bir urun. Haliyle ham halinin degeri de rafineri edildikten sonra ortaya cikan urunlerin degerine bagli. ABD, Akdeniz ve Kuzey Bati Avrupa’nin ileri teknoloji rafinerileri daha agir petrolden daha ince urun uretme kapasitelerine sahipler. Bu avantajin en onemli temeli de daha ucuz petrolu alip daha pahali urun cikararak karliliklarini artirabilmeleri. Hal boyle olunca hem Dunya’daki arz paylari hem de rafinaj gerceklikleri nedeniyle Dunya’daki ham petrolun en onemli iki grubu “medium sour” ve “light sweet” petroller. Yani ozkutle olarak orta kalitede ve sulfur orani yuksek petroller ve ozkutlesi yuksek ve dusuk sulfur oranli petroller piyasanin iki onemli grubu. Medium sour petrol piyasasi Rusya, Suudi Arabistan, Irak ve Iran tarafindan domine edilmis bir piyasa. Light sweet ise ABD, Nijerya, Angola ve Libya gibi ulkelerin soz sahibi oldugu bir piyasa. En son anlasmada dikkat ederseniz anlasmanin medium sour ureticiler arasinda oldugunu, light sweet ureticilerin cogunun anlasmaya dahil edilmedigini gorursunuz. Cunku su an piyasada toplam petrolun arzindan ziyade en onemli konu medium sour petrolun arz probleminin olmamasi. Bu da islenmis urun tarafinda stoklari ekonomik olmayacak yuksek seviyelerde tutacak kadar fazla islenmis urunun olmasi sonucunu doguruyor ki fiyatlari asagi ceken buydu. Yani medium sour piyasanin karliliklari dusmustu. Light sweet ne kadar cok gelirse gelsin su an icin piyasada yerini bulamaz. Zaten ABD’nin uretiminin dusmesinin nedeni de bu. Surekli Nijerya ve Libya’nin piyasaya geri donusunden bahseden “uzmanlar”a buradan bunu bir daha aciklamis olayim.

Yukarida yazilanlarla ozet olarak 2017’de petrol fiyatlarinin en buyuk tehdidi Iran olacak diyerek bu gunku yorumu noktalayalim.”

Serkan.Sahin@thomsonreuters.com

“Buradaki gorusler tamamen yazarin kendi gorusleri olup Thomson Reuters ve bagli kuruluslari kesinlikle baglamaz ve goruslerini yansitmaz.”

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