30 Kasım 2016 – Serkan Şahin’in Yorumu

Serkan tatilden döndü, yorumu ve benim sorduğum iki soruya cevabı aşağıda

“OPEC kisitlamaya gitti. 1 Ocak 2017 itibariyle gunluk 1.2 milyon varil/gunluk kisitlamaya gitme karari aldi. OPEC disi icin de 600.000 varil/gunluk kisitlamanin bu anlasmaya dahil oldugundan bahsettiler. Rusya simdiden 300.000 varil/gun kesinti sozu vermis. Endonezya’nin da uyeliginin dondurulmasi ile teknik olarak OPEC uretiminde daha fazla bir dusus oldu. Bu kesinti aciklamasi bu nedenle komik. Isin matematigi tutmuyor. Sanirim burada bir aciklama gerekecek. Bence basin konferansi cok net degildi. OPEC bir sonraki toplantiya kadar bu taktik ile zaman kazanmaya calisiyor gibi.Ulke ulke kisitlama dagilimlarini gorunce ustune bir daha konusuruz.

32.5 milyon varil/gun halihazir uretimin ustunde, bu nedenle ben fiziki piyasada karsiligini beklemiyorum. Aslinda adi ‘ihracat kesintisi’ olan konuyu ‘uretim kesintisi’ olarak tanimlamak yanlis en basta. Suudi Arabistan’in bu kesintiye yanasmis olmasi onlar icin de tehlikeli sinira yaklasildiginin resmi.  Bu anlasma benim icin bu anlamda onemli. Miktarlara takilmiyorum.

ABD haftalik stok verileri aciklandi. Stoklarda 885 bin varillik azalma var, ancak Cushing stoklari 2.4 milyon varil artmis. Benim anladigim iceride artan uretim bunu desteklemis. Ithalat cok kucuk de olsa dusmus. Meksika’ya ithal edilen gaz ve LNG ithalati petrol stoklarinda artisi saglamis gibi ama ancak bu artis genelde kondensat formunda olmus gibi gorunuyor. Cushing disindaki tum petrol stoklarindaki dususu bence bu acikliyor. OPEC sonrasi heyecanla beklenen ABD petrol aktivitesindeki artis icin hala cok erken, heyecanlanacak bir durum yok.

-Bu kısımda benim Serkan’a sorduğum iki sorunun cevabı var-

Soru 1- Petrol talebi ne zaman zirve yapar?

Cevap 1- Bence yakin gelecekte bul olmaz. Hindistan buyumesi bence tarihte gorulmemis ilginclikte olacak. Bizim tahminlerimiz Hindistan petrol talep buyumesinin Cin talep buyumesini 2017’de gececegi yonunde. Bunu bir ornekle aciklayayim; ‘Hindistan hala en temel ihtiyaclari bile halka sunamamis durumda. 2018’e kadar 100 milyon tuvalet yapilmasi planlaniyor Hindistan’da. Bu tuvalet ihtiyacindan ortaya cikacak plastic boru ihtiyaci bile Asya’da petrokimya sektorunde ciddi bir talep olusturacak. Hindistan’da ortaya cikacak tasima yakitlarinin talebinden bahsetmiyorum bile. Sanirim talepte zirve icin daha erken.

Soru 2- Petrol arzinda petrol gibi baska surprizler olur mu?

Cevap 2- Bence en buyuk surpriz EOR teknolojilerindeki gelismelerden gelir. Mevcut ureten ya da uretimi durdurulmus sahalarda EOR teknolojilerinde yasanacak gelismeler bir anda ucuz ve cok daha dusuk riskli petrol piyasaya surebilir. Bence bu dusuk petrol seviyesi devam ettikce artan bir ihtimal. Tight oil kaynaklarinin Orta Dogu’da ortaya cikmasi gibi bir surpriz icin fiyatlarin en az 3 yil 80-90 Dolar/varil ustu kalmasi lazim. Bu da onumuzdeki en az 2-3 yil icin gercekci gorunmuyor.”

“Buradaki gorusler tamamen yazarin kendi gorusleri olup Thomson Reuters ve bagli kuruluslari kesinlikle baglamaz ve goruslerini yansitmaz.”

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