29 Kasım 2016

Word: https://drive.google.com/open?id=0B3RIv3pMNaTdcXhLWURONmY4Mnc

The Economist ve çevreci gruplar, tarihsel içerikten bağımsız, Trump bir şey değiştiremez söylemlerindeler. Google’da bulunabilir, ABD başkanı Carter beyaz sarayın çatısına güneş paneli koymuştu, Reagan söktürdü. ABD başkanı politikaları ile önemli değişiklikler yapabilir, Çin başkanı da. Ekonomi, hacim, ölçek büyük. Realizme bir marj tanınmalı. Alman gaz piyasasının geleceği notu çok ilginç, alenen bu Hollanda’da Groningen üretimi hızla düşerse, birleşirsek biz kaybederiz mesajı var. ClipperData’ya her gün bakmak lazım. DESFA kararı 1 hafta içinde denilmiş. Yarın “winter package” ve kar bekliyoruz. Japonya’ya LNG’de esneklikse bir fiyatı olacak, esneklik istemezsen de indirim veririz mesajı da ilginç olmuş. Büyük devletler kendi filolarında elektrikli arabalara yer verecek, deklarasyon imzalanmış.

Bilgiler

OPEC dünya talebinin 3’te 1i, denizden ithalatının %75’i OPEC ülkelerinden(15mv/g). İran’ın Güney Kore’ye satışları Kasım itibari ile Ocak ayının iki misline çıkmış durumda, ortalama 280bin v/g. ABD gaz ihracatı arttı ama Meksika’ya boru hattı ile olan en büyük artışı gördü(seviye olarak). Kasım, ABD’nin net doğal gaz ihracatçısı olduğu ilk ay

Japonyaya, BP ve Shell, LNG de esneklik isteyen fiyatına katlanır mesajını verdiler. Japonya’nın Adil Ticaret komisyonu, satıcıların LNG’lerin tekrar satış hakkının kısıtlanması ile ilgili endişeleri devam ediyor. Shell yetkilisi “Alıcılar, daha düşük fiyatı veya daha çok esnekliği, hangisi önemli ise, tercih ederler” demiş.

Afganistan’da ABD savunma bakanlığı verilerine göre 1 trilyon $ değerinde bakır, demir, kobalt, altın, lityum var. Afganistan’dan Hindistan’a gidecek boru hattını Taliban korumaya söz vermiş, şartı var ama.Taliban tarafından açıklanmamış kurallara uyarlarsa.

Azerbaycan devlet şirketi SOCAR Yunan devlet şirketi DESFA’daki %66 hisse için 2013’te 400 milyon € önermişti. AB daha sonra SOCAR payının %49’a düşmesini istemiş, %17 pay İtalyan şebeke operatörü Snam’ın ilgi alanına girmişti. Yunan Varlık Kalkınma fonu (HRADF), SOCAR’dan teminat mektubunu uzatmasını istedi. Bu hafta durum netleşir

Suudiler Çin ve Hindistan’da Pazar kazanmış gözükseler de aslında rakipleri daha fazla Pazar kazanıyor. Sebebi, Suudilerin OSP(official selling price) ile kontrat yapısı. Dönemsel kontratlar ve OSP spot alımlara göre daha zor. Bir rafineri ihtiyacı olduğunda ise, spot alımı Suudi sistemine tercih ediyor.

Kanada, Çin, Fransa, Japonya, Norveç, İsveç, İngiltere ve ABD “devlet araçları” deklarasyonu ile, kendi filolarındaki elektrikli araç miktarını arttırma sözü verdiler.

ABD’de Wyomingde madenciler oldukça soğuk bir kış sebebiyle 2 yılın en yüksek kömür üretimini bekliyor. İlk altı ayda elektriğin %36sı doğalgaz %31’i kömürdendi. Wyoming’de üretim bu sene 2014’teki seviyesinden 35 milyon ton daha düşüktü. Büyülü rakam gaz için 2.5$/mmbtu, bu rakamın üzeri kömürcüleri mutlu edecek.

OPEC’te bazı kritik noktalar. Irak veri kontrolünde ikincil kaynakları kabül etmiyor, üretimini daha düşük gösterdiği için. Üretim hedefi 6 ay için belirlenecek. İran, geçtiğimiz iki yıl boyunca üretimini ciddi olarak arttıranlar yükün büyük kısmını alsın diyor.

Amerikan sayıştayı GAO, gelişmiş biyoyakıtlarda gelecek görmüyor. Selüloziklerde hedeflerin çok altında kaldı fiyatlar çok yüksek, diğerlerinde de ise petrole göre çok pahalı kimse girmek istemiyor modunda bir özeti var. Mevcut motorlarla uyumlu yakıtlara “drop-in fuels”, doğrudan kullanımlı yakıt deniyormuş.

Alman gaz piyasasının geleceği ile ilgili 7 sayfalık not’ta: TTF ile Gaspool veya NCG’nin birleşmesinin net refahı arttırmasa da likidite arttıracağı, ama orta uzun vadede Groningen’deki üretim ve kuzey akım 2 ve ABD LNGsi ile AB’de gaz akışının değişerek (üstü kapalı) birleşmenin zararlı olacağı (Almanlardan çok TTF’e yarar sağlayacağı)

2011-2014’e göre Asya LNG fiyatları çok düşük olsa da son aylarda 7.1$/mmbtu’ya yaklaştı. Aynı zamanda bu ABD ve Avrupa fiyatlarında da bir güçlenmeyi yansıttı. 2016’da alınacak 3 ders: LNG fazlası fiyat seviyelerini düşürmekten çok fiyat farklarını daraltıyor, Avrupa LNG fiyatlarında bir çıpa, ABD ihracatını Avrupa hubları belirler. Grafik : NBP-HH

Grafik

Transatlantik fiyat farkları. (Timera –Energy)

Venezüella şirketi PDVSA’nın üretimi ( Caracas Chronicles)

Tarih

5 Ekim 1983, Milliyet, Sayfa 11 – “Baraj, tezeğe karşı”

 

 

 

 

 

 

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