15 Kasım 2016

Word: https://drive.google.com/open?id=0B3RIv3pMNaTdLVg0TFpsSzhTaGc

Dieter Helm, temel bir soruyu cevaplıyor, dünyanın en güçlü adamları karar verse, petrol fiyatını sabitleyebilir mi? Bence bugün okunacaklarda ön sırada. Akdeniz’e arz edilen petrol Hawaii-Avustralyalara kadar gidiyor, bolluk zamanı. Ruslar gerçek anlamda soğuk kış bekliyorlar, en azında Ukrayna için. Almanya, Avusturyaya elektrik satışını fiziksel kapasite ile sınırlayacak. OPEC açıklamaları likidite daraldığı ve satış pozisyonları arttığında çoğaltıyor. Danimarkanın rekor fiyatının sebebi derin denizde değil. WSJ güzel bir kısım yayınlamış, elektrik sektörü deregüle olmalı mı, hem evet hem hayır kısmını özetlemeye çalıştım. BCG’nin LNG arzı ile ilgili rapor özetinin ana fikri, LNG tesisleri standartlaşıp maliyetler düşmezse yatırım zor.

Bilgiler

Dieter Helm: “Uzun dönemde teknoloji belirleyicidir, maliyetleri, ikameleri.. Trump,Putin ve diğer OPEC otokratları bu temellerin etrafında hareket eder, tam tersi değil … Tüm büyük adamlar bir araya gelse petrol fiyatını belirler, bir yanılgı”. Bu arada Mart’ta çıkacak “Carbon Crunch” kitabının da reklamını yapıyor, bekliyoruz.

Akdeniz; Libya, İran, Irak, Kazakistan, Azerbaycan derken dünyanın en yüksek petrol bolluğu yaşayan bölgesi oldu. Sonucunda Cezayir petrolü Avustralya-Küba’ya, Libya petrolü Hawaii’ye, Kürt petrolü İsveç’e kadar yolculuk yaptı

OPEC, short pozisyonlar tepe yaptığında ve likidite düştüğünde anlaşma için pozitif mesajlar yayıyor.Morgan Stanley

OPEC’e hiç iyi haber yok, ABD şeyl üretkenliği kuyu başı : 777 v/g’a yükseldi. %3 daha yükseldi. Yıldan yıla %20 artış

Putin, Merkel’e, “Ukrayna Avrupa’ya gönderdiğimiz gazı izinsiz çekebilir” dedi. Anlaşıldığı kadarı ile Ruslar çok soğuk bir kış bekliyor. Ukrayna şu anda Rusya’dan gaz almıyor.

Çek ve Polonya’nın Almanya’nın kuzeydeki fazla yenilenebilir üretiminin güneyine kendi üzerlerinden akmasına (loopflow)’a itirazları sonucu, Almanya Avusturya ile elektrik ticaretini fiziksel kapasite kadar sınırlayacak. Bu Avusturya elektrik faturalarını 300 milyon € arttırıken, Almanya’nın kini düşürecek. E-control mahkemeye gidecek

Danimarka dünyanın en düşük fiyatlı 600 MW açık deniz rüzgar projesini açıkladı: 49.50 euro/MWh. Danimarka’nın başarısının sırrı derin olmayan sular. Projeyi İsveçli Vattenfall yapacak. İngilterede en ucuz rakam ise 120 sterlin/MWh.Artı hükümetin iletim bedellerini karşıladığı 25 sterlin/MWh. Üzerine dengeleme 7pound /MWh

Sarkozy, eğer ABD Paris anlaşmasından çekilirse, ABD menşeli ürünlere %1-3 vergi istedi. İklim komiseri Miguel Arias “Biz karbon vergisini istemediğimizi daima söyledik[emisyon piyasa sistemini benimsedik diyor]”. Şu anda karbon dioksitin tonu 5.79 $.

Gazprom 2016 gaz üretimi tüm zamanların en düşüğü olan 409.8 bcm’e indirdi. Geçen seneki 418.5 bcm’den bu sene 452.5 bcm üretim planlıyordu.

Nijerya, Avrupanın en büyük tahıl üreticilerinden, gelecek sene küresel talep sebebiyle yerel piyasada sıkıntı yaşanabileceğini söyledi.

Kuzey denizi(North sea), İngiltere’de 350,000 istihdam ve daha çıkarılmamış 30 milyar varil petrole evsahipliği yapıyor. Önümüzdeki 10 yılda 100 platforma ihtiyaç kalmayacak. Platform kaldırma maliyetleri ise 500 milyon pound’a çıkmış durumda. Şirket harcamalarının 2010’da %2si iken şimdi %5’ine yükselmiş

Çinko, Londra’da 7 yılın zirvesine çıktı. Çinko çelik galvanizleme(kaplamada) kullanılıyor. Bu sene %64 arttı.

Dünyanın en büyük tankeri ULCC 3.2 mv kapasite ve videosu

 

Grafik

BNP Paribas’a göre petrol stokları 2017’de hergün 400bin v artacak

 

Makale Özeti

Is it Time to Deregulate All Electric Utilities? The Wall Street Journal / Journal Reports: Energy

Elektrik Sektörünü düzenlemeden azat etme(deregülasyon) zamanı mı?

Deregülasyon taraftarları, monopol şirketlerin çok az inovasyon ve operasyonel verimlilik kaygıları olduğunu, karşıtları ise tüketiciye seçim şansının verilmesinin daha düşük fiyatlar getirmediğini, ani fiyat artışları ve fiyat istikrarsızlığı getirdiğini iddia ediyor.

Yazının güzel tarafı ise buradan başlıyor. Deregülasyona evet diyen Prof Andrew Kleit ile Hayır diyen Dr. Kenneth Rose fikirlerini aktarıyor

EVET: Maliyetleri düşürme ve İnovasyonu arttırmanın en iyi yolu, Andrew N. Kleit

2003’teki Kuzeydoğu elektrik kesintisini yaşayanlar bilir, elektrik gidince hayat durur.

Düzenlemeye tabii bir sistemde, hükümet kurumları üretim ve şebeke erişim kararları verirler, elektrik tarifelerini belirlerler, böylelikle şirketler yatırımlarına belirli bir geri dönüş alırlar. Şirketlerin kârı, harcamalarının bir fonksiyonu olduğundan maliyetleri kesme veya verimliliği arttırma istekleri olmaz

Diğer yöntem ise piyasa güçlerine yaslanmak. Kimse elektrik sektörünü nasıl tamamen deregüle hale getireceğini çözememiş olsa da, yeniden yapılandırma üretim gibi segmentlerde rekabetin önünü açıyor

Yapılandırılmış piyasalarda, yatırım kararları girişimciler, mühendisler tarafından alınıyor, hükümet avukatları tarafından değil. Şirketler piyasada geleceği olan yatırımları yapıyorlar, inovasyon düzenleme makinesinden geçme gereği duymadığı için daha hızlı gerçekleşiyor

California da daha fazla yenilenebilir şebeke üzerinde baskı oluşturdu. Eyalet bunu çözmek için –rekabetçi toptan satış piyasası ile- bir enerji dengesizlik piyasası kurdu, bu sayede katılımcılar birbirlerine güç aktarabildiler. Bu sayede maliyetler düştü, California daha fazla yenilenebilir bağladı. 2014’te California vergi verenleri 100 milyon $ daha az ödedi.

Elektrikli araba gibi yeniliklerde ise, düzenleyicinin fiyatları belirlediği ortamda zamana göre tarife yeniliği kolay anlaşılmaz. Maliyetlerin düşmesi için çok fazla teknolojik gelişime ihtiyaç var. Bu yatırımlar düzenlemeye tabi monopolistlerin içinden gelmez.

Yapılandırma tüm sözlerini yerine getirmedi. Ticari müşteriler daha fazla fayda sağlarken, meskenler o kadar yarar göremedi. Fakat maliyetleri azaltma anlamında, yapılandırma işe yaradı. Hiçbir yapılandırılan eyalet milyarlarca dolarını nükleere parasını gömmedi.

Daha temiz, güvenilir ve ucuz şebeke için kamu çalışanlarının dayatmalarından uzaklaşarak rekabetçi güçleri ortaya çıkarma zamanıdır.

HAYIR: Kanıtlara göre tüketiciye katkısı çok az oldu, Kenneth Rose

Cevap sanki basit olmalıydı, rekabet 100 yıllık eski kamu hizmeti anlayışından daha iyidir. Fakat elektrik sektörüne rekabet getirmek sanıldığından daha karışık. Sonuç olarak, beklenen faydalar gelmedi

1990ların ortasında hava yolu şirketleri rekabete başarı ile açılınca sıra, eskimiş elektrik sektörüne bir makyaj yapmaya gelmişti. 1990ların sonunda eyaletlerin yarısı yasal düzenlemeleri yapmıştı. Fakat birden bir şeyler ters gitmeye başladı. 2000lerin başında, 2001’lerde de devam eden California piyasası yapılandırılmasında bir şeyler ters gitti. Elektrik yokluğu, çökmeler ve neredeyse en büyük yatırımcı şirketlerini iflas ettiriyordu. Daha yasal düzenleme geçirmemiş eyaletler geri adım attı.

Duman dağıldığı zaman, 13 eyalet ve DC deregülasyona devam etti. Tüketiciler tedarikçilerini seçtiler

Peki daha ucuz elektrik mi geldi? Görünen o ki, gerçek faydalar o kadar da net değil. Tam perakende rekabet olan 14 bölgedeki mesken tüketiciler ile düzenlemeye tabi 30 eyaletteki mesken tüketicileri kıyaslandığında, 2002-2015 arası, fiyat artışları yaklaşık olarak aynı. Tercih hakkı olan tüketicilerin elektrik fiyatı %50, olmayan eyaletlerdekilerin ki %52 arttı.

Büyük tüketiciler daha çok faydalanmışlar. Düzenlemeye tabii eyaletlerdeki ticari tüketiciler %50 fiyat artışı görürken, tercihli tüketiciler %27 artış görmüş. Sanayiciler düzenleme altında %53 artış görürken, deregule eyaletlerde %30 artış görmüşler.

2002-2008 arasında tercih yapan(choice-deregüle) eyaletlerde ticari %43, sanayi %60 artış görürken (doğalgaz fiyatları sebebi ile), düzenlemeye tabii eyaletlerde %9 ve %19 artış görülmüş.

Neden çalışmadı? Sektör yapısı dolayısıyla, elektrik sektörü verimli çalışabilmek için ölçek ekonomisi ister. Monopol şirketlerin bölünmesi verimlilik kaybına sebep olur. Geleneksel şirket mükemmel değil ama deregüle daha kötü

Deregülasyon perakende ve toptan fiyat oynaklığına sebep oldu. Tüketiciler şikayet edince yasa koyucular fiyat kontrolleri ile müdahale ettiler. Fiyatlar düşünce de üreticiler ağladı, hatta teşvik aldılar. Öyle bir deregülasyon modeli oluştu ki, kimse için çalışmıyor.

Benim önerim, bir spektrum üzerinde piyasa güçleri ve düzenleme var ise, herhangi birini seçmek zorunda değiliz. En iyisi, ikisinin de bazı parçalarını birleştirmek

Unutmayalım ki düzenleme 100 yıldır elektrik sistemini stabil tuttu. Rekabetin temiz enerji utopyasına gideceğini düşünmek mantıksız ve sonu hüsran olur

Perakende piyasalara bir şans verildi, çalışmadı –utanmaya gerek yok. Ama hatalardan öğrenim, düzenleme ile piyasa arasında bir denge kurma zamanı

 

 

Rapor Özeti

A Challenging Supply-Demand Outlook for LNG Producers- The Evolving LNG Market by  Iván Martén and Juan Vázquez, Boston Consulting Group,

Giriş

Talep büyümesi 2015-2025 arası yıllık %5-6 büyüse de baz senaryomuza göre yeni gelecek tedariği soğurmaya yetmeyecektir. Dolayısıyla zaten düşük olan LNG fiyatları daha da düşebilir, yatırımcılar bunu yatırım maliyetlerini düşürerek giderebilirler

Bugünün Doğal Gaz Piyasası

Doğalgaz bizim 3A (pekiyi) dediğimiz bir yakıt Abundant(çok), Available(kullanılabilir), Affordable(Makul). Ayrıca doğalgaz güneş termik ve ışıkgerilimi (PV)den daha ucuz, kömürden de çok pahalı değil. Ayrıca emisyonu da düşük, kömürün yarısı

Uluslar arası Enerji Ajansına göre doğalgaz talebinin 2013-2025 arası %1.4 artması bekleniyor, kömür de %0.4, petrolde %0.6. Talebin daha çok Çin, Hindistan ve Ortadoğudan gelmesi bekleniyor. Ama eğer ülkeler emisyon azatlımı için doğal gaza geçerlerse bu oranlar aşılır.

LNG talebi ise doğalgazdan daha güçlü arttı. 1990-2015 arası LNG talebi yıllık %6.2 artarken, bu doğalgaz da %2.3, petrol de %1.4dü. LNG 2002’de doğalgaz arzının %7si iken, 2015’te %16sıydı.

LNG Üretim Kapasitesinde Sırada olan Yükseliş

Küresel LNG tedariği 2001-2011 arası yıllık %9 arttı. 2011den beri neredeyse plato 320-325 bcma (yıllık milyar m3).Oysakı 2011-2015 arası 40 bcma yeni sıvılaştırma kapasitesi devreye girdi. Bu yeni kapasite; 1)Angola Soyo’daki LNG tesisinde olduğu gibi teknik problemlerden ve 2) Avustralyadaki projelerin devreye gitmesinden

Şu anda 13 sıvılaştırma terminaline yatırım kararı verildi (FID) ve yapım halinde.Bunlar önümüzdeki 3-5 yılda devreye girecek. 13 tesisin toplam kapasitesi 185 bcma, 2014’teki dünya toplam üretiminin %57si, son 13 yıldaki LNG büyümesine eş

Bunlara ek olarak 270bcma sıvılaştırma terminali de incelemede. Fakat bunlar iki sebepten yapılamayabilir:

  1. Nispeten Düşük LNG spot fiyatları: Genelde kontratlar Brent fiyatının 7’de 1’i (ex-ship basis: yani destinasyona varış bedeli-gazlaştırma hariç). Ama tüketiciler mevcut spot LNG fiyatları ile rekabetçi fiyat istiyorlar
  2. Yeni sıvılaştırma projeleri için yüksek başa baş noktası: Şu anda tüketicilerin ödemek istedikleri LNG fiyatının altında bir proje yok gibi. Yani projelerin hiçbiri karlı değil

Resim: Mavi renkli yeni projelerin hemen hemen çoğu bu fiyatlarda ekonomik değil

Ama yeni LNG kapasitelerine de zamanla ihtiyaç olacak, bu sebeple geliştirme maliyetlerinin önemli şekilde düşürülmesi ve yeni fiyat ortamına adapte edilmesi gerekmektedir. Daha çok erişilebilir yerlerdeki brownfield yatırımları, erişilemeyen greenfield(sıfırdan) yatırımlarına tercih edilir.

Sektör dolayısıyla yapısal çözümler sunmalı, modüler, standardize tesis inşaatları, tedarik maliyetlerinin düşürülmesi, yalın yöntemlerin tüm bir geliştirme sürecinde içselleştirilmesi

Dolayısıyla 3 senaryo geliştirdik

  • Baz senaryo: Arz, 2018’de 528 bcma’dan 2025’te 640 bcma’ya çıkar. Nihai yatırım kararı verilmiş 13 projenin 8’i 1 yıl gecikir. Katar sıvılaştırma artışısı da gecikir. Şu anda yatırım kararı verilmemiş olanlardan da 2020 ila 2025 arası 30 bcma kapasite gelir
  • Düşük senaryo: Tedarik 2018’de 516 bcma, 2025’te 587 bcma’ya çıkar. Yukarıda sözü geçen 8 projede 2 yıl gecikme, Katarda mevcut durumun devamı, ve diğer projelerden yeni kapasite gelmez
  • Yüksek senaryo: Tedarik 2018’de 610 bcma, 2025’te 665 bcma’ya çıkar. 13 proje zamanında devreye girer, Katar 18 milyon ton ek kapasite getirir, yatırım kararı alınmamışlardan da 55 bcma ek kapasite gelir

Artan LNG Talebi – Büyüme ne kadar güçlü olacak?

LNG talebi 2002’de 150 bcma’dan 2011’de 327 bcma’ya yıllık %9 artış gördü. Fakat 2011’den beri talep düz. 2002-2014 arası talep artışının %80’i Asya’dan –Japonya, Tayvan, Güney Kore mevcut talebin %50si

Baz senaryo 2025’e büyümeyi %5-6 artarak 571 bcma öngörüyor. Ana etkenler Çin, Hindistan ve Güney Asya, toplam talep artışının %75i

Resim – Talep artışı hangi ülkelerden

Neler bu artışı engelleyebilir:

  • Japonya 24GW nükleer kapasitesini tekrar başlatmayı planlıyor. Bunu yapamaması veya başlatması, LNG talebinde 30bcma bir artış veya azalış (baz senaryoya göre)
  • Çin’de, boruhattından doğalgaz 2014’teki 31 bcma’dan önümüzdeki 10 yılda 90-160 bcma ulaşabilir. Bu da Çin’in ne kadar LNG isteyeceği konusunda netleşememe sebebir

Bizim düşük ve yüksek senaryo farkımızdan daha büyük bir aralığa 421-719 bcma (2025’te) işaret etmektedir.

Talebe karşı Arz: LNG üreticilerine etkiler

2018-2025 arasında 3 talep senaryosuna 3 tedarik senaryosu ile 9 senaryonun 8inde 2018’de arz fazlalığı var. Baz senaryomuzda bu miktar 61 bcma, 2015’teki Avrupa talebinden 10 bcma daha yüksek. Bu da 2018’de beklenen talebi %15 aşıyor. 2025’te ise fazlalık kalmıyor. Baz senaryomuzda 2025’te 28 bcma LNG tedarik açığı var.

Bu dinamikler aynı zamanda artan LNG likiditesi ile de eş zamanlı olacak. Spot ve kısa dönem hacmi 2005’teki 25 bcma’dan 2015’te 100 bcma’ya ulaşıyor. Bu hızla 2025’te 200 bcma’yı aşar

Temel soru: Spot fiyatlar ne kadar daha düşebilir

Taban fiyatı belirleyen faktörler: Üreticiler üretimlerini keserler. Mesela AVrupada 2013 ve 2014 arasında Rusya gaz satışını %10 düşürdü. 162 bcm’den 148 bcm’e düştü.

Aynı zamanda düşük fiyatlar önümüzdeki 5 yılda ABD’den gelecek 90 bcma kapasitenin üretimine de ket vurabilir. Bu da off-takers’ların her halükarda tolling(tesis kullanma gibi) bedellerini ödemesine sebep olur.

Off-takers: Belirli bir hacim miktar almaya söz verenler

Eğer LNG fiyatları DES – delivered ex-ship olarak Henry Hub fiyatlarının %115’inden düşük olursa, tolling bedellerini ödeyerek gazı olmayabilirler. Bu da Henry hub fiyatları 5$/mmbtu kabul edilirse, spot fiyat tavanı olarak 7$/mmbtu Avrupa 9$/mmbtu Uzak doğu fiyatı demektir.

Avrupa tarafında ise, gazın kömür ile rekabet edebileceği fiyatın altına düştüğünde ise talep artar. Kömür 45$ ve karbon fiyatı 25$ için Avrupa’da 4.6 $/mmbtu gaz fiyatı rekabetçidir. Artan likidite ile, bu düşük fiyatlar, uzun dönem LNG kontratlarını tekrar müzakere etmek isteyen müşteriler demektir. Brent’e dayalı kontraların olduğu yüksek fiyat ortamında imkan dahilindedir.

Yapılması Gereken: LNG Geliştirme Maliyetlerinin Düşürülmesi

2000’lerde artan geliştirme maliyetleri 2010’a kadar hızla arttı. Proje geliştiriciler, proje geliştirmek için bu işe girmez, rekabetçi bir proje olmasına dikkat ederler. Bunun için de birkaç adıma dikkat etmek gerekir.

  • Modüler sistemler geliştirme ve LNG tesis inşaatında standartlaşma: Sektör çok büyük ve türünün tek örneği tesis inşaatına evrilmiş durumda. Şirketler küçük modüler ünitelerle inşaat maliyetlerini düşürebilir
  • Tedarikçiler arası rekabeti destekleme: Özellikle soğutma kompresörleri gibi kritik elemanlarda rekabet sınırlı. Rekabeti ve tedarikçi ağını genişleterek fiyatlar düşürülebilir
  • Şirketin teknoloji stratejisini yeniden düşünmek: Sektör ölçek ve termal verimliliğe çok yatırım yaptı. Oysa daha fazla verimlilik daha fazla değer üretmez, özellikle düşük LNG piyasasında. Dolayısıla maliyet-fayda perspektifinde değerlendirmeliler
  • İşletmeciler arası işbirliği: Yanyana iki tesis yapıp, işbirliği yapmıyorlardı. Dizayn ve inşaat harcamalarını eniyiler.
  • Sade yaklaşımları tüm bir geliştirme sürecine uygulama: Başka sektörlerde bu tip – lean- yaklaşımlar %30 maliyet düşüşleri getirdi. LNG geliştiricileri de bunları düşünmeli
  • Yüzer LNG teknolojisini geliştirme ve standardizasyonuna destek: LNG sektörü açık deniz sıvılaştırma gemilerinin ilk adımında, teknoloji kendini ispatlayınca tam değeri ortaya çıkacak

En önemlisi tedarikçiler geliştirme maliyetlerini standardizasyon ile aşağı düşürmeye çalışmalı, malzeme tedarikçileri arası rekabet geliştirmeli ve yalın yöntemleri uygulamalı

 

Tarih

22 Haziran 1983 – Enerjinin %66sını güneşten sağlayabiliriz (Milliyet) ,36 TET (ton eşdeğer taş kömürü=293 TWh)

 

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