31 Ekim 2016

Word: https://drive.google.com/open?id=0B3RIv3pMNaTdSGhNbndCUHlDdjg

Bugün ki ana haber bence GE Oil&Gas ile Baker Hughes’i alması. Neden ilginç? GE ilginçtir, tam dekarbonizasyon derken en büyük petrol ve gaz hizmet firmasını oluşturması, sektör büyümesinden beklentisini gösterir. Belki de big data ile ilgili bir atılımları var. Çevreden enerji hasat eden cihazlar için programlama dili : Chain. Neden önemli? Pilsiz, bulunduğu ortamdaki enerjiyle çalışan cihazlarda, alet sürekli resetler, vs. Programlama dili hafıza kanalları ile kesikli enerjide işlem yapabiliyor. CSIS’teki Enerji güvenliğinin bir parçası olarak Rafineri sistemi sunumu ve videosu (CSIS webde var), kesinlikle ufuk açıcı ve bol bol öngörüler ve temelleri var. Elektrikli arabalara inanmasa da, yaptığı yorumlar 4 gündür kafamda dönüyor. Aşağıda özet kısmında.

Bilgiler

Chevron, Avustralya Wheatstone LNG tesisinde 5milyar $ bütçeyi aştığını söyledi. Avustralyadaki LNG projelerindeki bütçe aşımları 50 milyar$’a ulaştı. Geçen sene Shell, 20 milyar$’lık Arrow LNG’yi iptal etmiş, Woodside Petroleum’da 40 milyar$’lık Browse projesini rafa kaldırmıştı. Wheatstone, 8.9 mton LNG/yıl, ilk bütçeyi 20 milyar$ aştı.

The Economist, Rusyadaki politik gelişmeler ve petrol fiyatlarını gösteren (Grafik) kısmındaki grafikte, genel tez olarak petrol fiyatları düşünce dost, çıkınca düşman olunur tezi işlenmiş. Kısa kısa, Aralık 1979’da Rusya’nın Afganistan’ı işgali,1991 Sovyetlerin Çöküşü, 2008 Gürcistan krizi, 2014 Kırımın ilhakı

Petrol ihracatında(üretimi değil) İran 3, Irak 3, Suudi Arabistan 7 mv/g, akılda kalsın. Permian’da arsa fiyatları 40,000$’a çıktı, 2 yıl önce 100$ seviyesindeki arsa fiyatının 8 katı. PetroChina, Sinopec ve Cnooc Capex hedeflerinin de altında harcıyor. Exxon’un petrol üretimi son 7 yılın en düşüğünde: 3.8 mv/g.

İngiltere’de Hunterston B ve Hinkley B nükleer reaktörlerinin çatlaklar sebebiyle acil durumda sistemin kendini kapatamayacağı raporlanmış. 1970’lerde yapılan Advanced Gas Cooled Reactorleri. Bilgiler bilgi edinme kapsamında edinilmiş. Graphite çekirdek ile ilgili de endişeler var. Açıklama yapan yetkili tüm sonuçlar beklendiği gibi demiş

SOMO(Irak), şeffaflık kapsamında Eylül ayı için 26 sahanın üretim rakamlarını ikinci kaynaklara vermiş. Uzmanlar Kürt yönetimi uhdesindeli üretim rakamlarıyla ilgili endişeli.Geçen ay, Kirkuk ve Baba Gurgur 93bin v/g, Bai Hasan ve Avana 275bin v/g,Rumaila 1.4 mv/g,West Qurna 870binv/g,Zubair 390bin v/g, Majnoon 214binv/g,Halfaya 204binv/g

İklim değişikliğinin altyapı ve dar gelirliye etkileri açısından uzun ve güzel bir yazıda, nasıl felaket miktarının arttığı, kamusal lojmanların sigorta şirketlerinden HAI grubun nasıl 2016’da son 10 yılın en yüksek bedellerini ödediği, su 5 cm yükselse, Charleston(Güney Carolina)’da 2.9 milyar $ altyapının tehdit altında olduğu anlatılmış.

Maden sektöründe robot ve otomasyon teknolojileri sebebiyle iş gücünün %40-%80i atıl kalabilir. Mesela sürücüsüz sistemler üretimi %15-20 arttırıken, yakıt tüketimini %10-15 düşürür,bakım masraflarınıı da %8 azaltır. Batı Virjinya’da madende işçi sayısı %9.6 düşerken, kömür üretimi %0.5 düşmüş. Rapor burada. Sayfa 12 sonrası

Biyoyakıt kullanımı ABD’de net CO2 emisyon artışına sebep oluyor. Aslında kullanılan bitkisel ürünler sadece biyoyakıtların ürettiği CO2’nin %37sini(2013) karşılıyor. 2013’te fark 83 TgC’ye(teragram Carbon) ulaşmış

Chevron %4 artarken, Exxon %2.5 düştü. İki firmanın toplam değeri 550 milyar $. Chevron’un Permian’da güçlü olması, Exxon’un ise uzun dönem vaadetmesi etkenler. Permian Chevron’un üretiminin %6sı, Citigroup bu varlıkların değerini 50-60 milyar $ olarak belirliyor.

İstanbul’da Novak ile Sefcovic kısa bir görüşme yapmış ve Sefcovic Ukraynanın 2019 sonrası da öneminden bahsetmiş. Türk akım ilk hat iki ülke işi, ikinci hat AB yasaları çerçevesinde tartışılmalı [AB’ye girişi itibari ile].

Exxon’un Liberya’daki Mesurado-1 başarılı olursa yılın en büyük petrol keşfi olabilir. İngiliz Tullow Oil, Kenya, Ghana da; Shell Tanzanya’da; Sound Energy Fas’da… Afrika kıtası toplam kuyu sayısı 77 ile 5 yılın dibinde.

Kontrata adil fiyat “fair price” tanımı koyunca, Litvanya’nın Gazprom’a tahkimi kaybetmesi durumu oluyor

İstatistik

Rusya petrol üretiminde 2016-2017de beklenen artışlar

  • Trebs ve Titov (Faz 2): Lukoil ve Bashneft işletecek, Timan-Pechora bölgesi. Bashneft görünce Sibirya akla gelsin. Bashneft’i de Rosneft almıştı. Üretimi 2015’te 30bin v/g’den, 60bin v/g’e çıkacak. 2019’da 100bin v/g
  • Novy Port: Gazprom Neft işletmeci,Bu yıl 50 bin v/g, seneye 100bin v/g, 2018’de 120bin v/g hedef 160bin v/g’e çıkmak
  • Messoyakha: İşletmeci Gazprom neft ve Rosneft. Bu yıl 12bin v/g, seneye 60bin v/g, 2020’de 110bin v/g
  • Pyakyakhinskoye: İşletmeci Lukoil. Arktik’te Yamal’da, 25 ekimde devreye girdi. 2016’da 12bin v/g gibi, 2017’de 30bin v/g hedef
  • Filanovsky: İşletmeci Lukoil, Hazar denizince, 2017’de 30bin v/g. 2019’da 120bin v/g
  • Suzun: İşletmeci Rosneft,Doğu Sibirya-Vankor, bu yıl 24bin v/g, Gelecekte 70bin-100bin v/g hedefleniyor
  • Kuyumbinskoe: Rosneft ve Gazprom Neft ortak işletme, 2017’de 6bin v/g, 2029’da 220bin/g de pik üretim hedefleniyor

 

Özet

Rafineri: Enerji Güvenliği konularında Kritik ve Gözden Kaçmış bir bağlantı – Dr Fereidun Fesharaki

Bence çok önemli bir yaklaşımı var Fesharaki’nin ve konusunda uzman, videosunu da baştan sona izledim. Bu hafta da özetlemeye çalıştım

Üstakış (upstream) ve Altakış (downstream) karlılığı ters yönde gider. Bu doğal bir hedge mekanizması. 2015 gibi. Bu sayede entegre firmalar daha başarılı.

Ham petrol fiyatları OPEC tarafından, jeopolitik, doğal felaket ve ekonomik büyüme ile belirleniyor
Petrol ürün fiyatları ise ekonomik performansın türevi.

Ham petrol akışları aslında rafineri taleplerinin fonksiyonu.
Ürün akışları ise çevresel düzenleme, altyapı yetersizlikleri ve depolamanın bir fonksyionu

ABD dünyadaki en iyi rafineri sisteminden birine sahip, cracking-to-distillate ratio ya göre. Sonra Kore. Hindistan’taki Reliance rafinerisi dünyadaki en iyisi. Çinlilerinki sofistike, AB çok geride. Yeni Ortadoğu rafinerileri de en iyilerinden
Avrupa’nın dizele bağımlılığı devam edecek. ABD petrol ihracatı, dünyanın en büyüğü. Asya ilerde ABD benzin ihracatından büyük bir pay alacak

Libya nın 1970’lerdeki gücü nereden geliyordu. Libya tipi tatlı-hafif ham petrol olmadan Avrupada bir çok rafineri istedikleri ürünleri üretemezdi.

Ham petrollerin bazısı çok ağır, suda batar, bazıları da hemen buharlaşır. Rafineri bu değişik ham petrollerden standart ürün üretir.

ABD uzun zamandır yeryüzündeki en karmaşık rafinerilere sahip. Rafinerilerdek iki ana faktör var: cracking – ağır ürünlerden hafif ürün eldesi ve yükseltme-kaliteyi arttırma-. ABD dünyadaki cracking’in %36sına sahip.

ABD’nin özelliği şu: Yıllarca en kirli petrolden bile en hafif ve temiz ürünleri üretmek üzere bir sanayi kurdu. Oysa şeyl’den elde edilen petrol çok hafif ve temiz. Buna herkesin ihtiyacı var, ama ABD rafinerileri daha ağır petrolleri işleyebilir, yani ihtiyaçları herkes kadar elzem değil

Jones Act yüzünden (bu bir ABD deniz işçileri kanunu), Kanadaya petrol ürünleri göndermek, ABD içinde göndermekten daha ucuza geliyordu. ABD petrol ürün ihracatının iki sebebinden bir Jones Act, diğeri de yakında kaldırılan ihracat yasağı

IMO’nun denizcilik yakıt kararı ABD’ye yarar (sunumda yapılması çok zor, imkansız diyor).4 mv/g fuel oil ne yapılacak dediğinde IMO’dan üretmesinler deniyor. Eskiden dizel kirli (5000ppm kükürt), jet yakıtı temizdi (3000 ppm). Şimdi dizel 10-15 ppm, jet hala 3000. Bu yasaklar jet yakıtını da bulabilir

ABD’de (slayt 12), 2005’teki 2.5 mv/g ürün ithalatından 2016’da 2.5 mv/g ürün ihracatına çıkıldı. LPG ihracatı ise 1 mv/g’e çıktı.ABD ilk defa 2016’da net benzin ihracatçısı oldu. Dizel ithalatı da 1 mv/g’ü aştı. Petrol taleb artışı Asya’da 800bin v/g artarken, yavaşlayarak 450bin v/g’e düştü.

Asya’da Japonya’da yaşlanan nüfustan, yakıt talebi de düşüyor ve 386bin v/g kapasiteli rafineriler 2017 gibi kapanıyor

Dünyada LPG, benzin talebi artmaya devam edecek. Rafineri yatırımları gecikiyor. Mevcut kullanım oranları artar. Asya ve Latin Amerika piyasalarının yatırıma ihtiyacı var. ABD rafinerileri bu desteği sağlar.

Grafik

Dünyadaki en büyük 5 LNG ihracatçısı

Avustralya ve Papua Yeni Ginede LNG Maliyet artışları

Sovyet/Rus Politik Tarihi ve Petrol fiyatları

Tarih

Enerjide tasarruf örnekleri ve Türkiye (15.09.1980-Milliyet Sayfa 2)

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