28 Ekim 2016

Word: https://drive.google.com/open?id=0B3RIv3pMNaTdc2k0U2hlWTUwZkk

Temiz enerji devrimi bakır talebini nasıl arttıracak iyi haber. Dün twitter’da bölüştüğüm videoyu özetlemek istedim, ama haber olmuş. IMO kararı ile gemicilik yakıtlarında kükürt oranının %3.5’tan %0.5’e düşürülmesne rafinericiler hazır değil, yakıtlar için dizel talebi artabilir. Dizel fiyatları daha premiumlu hale gelebilir. Yanılmıyorsam dünyadan 4 milyon v/g kükürtlü yakıt kükürtsüz hale getirilecek. Bu sürede mümkün değil deniyor.

Bilgiler

Karbonsuzlaşma bakırı seviyor. 2016’da 22.5 milyon ton bakır üretilmesi bekleniyor. 2030’da 30.8 milyon ton daha bakır talebi gelecek. Yenilenebilir enerji 4 ila 12 kat daha fazla bakır gerektiriyor.2030’a güneş enerjisi gelişimi 7-10 milyon ton ek bakır talebi getirebilir. Elektrikli araba da 90 veya daha fazla kilo bakır kullanıyor. Normal arabaya göre 3-4 kat.

Günün tek bir önemli haberi var bence. Uluslararası Deniz Örgütü (IMO)’nun denizcilik yakıtları ile alacağı karar. 2020’ye kadar kükürt orannı %3.5’tan %0.5’e düşürme kararı almış (web de var), dizel talebine kadar gider bu iş. Tek bir büyük gemi bir günde , o sene dünyada yola çıkan tüm yeni araçlar kadar Sülfür Dioksit emisyonu yayıyor.

GE’nin Baker Hughes’ı alma veya birleşme işi ile ilgili haberdeki istatistikler: GE, Baker Hughes’a 2017’de öngörülen EBITDA’sının 21 katını öneriyor, Siements Dresser-Rand’a 14 mislini önermişti. GE 2014’de Lufkin’in Ebitdasının 11 mislini ödedi. GE, fosil yakıtların sonuna geliyoruz denirken bir petrol saha ekipman tedarikçisi almaya çalışıyor.

Kemper, temiz kömür – IGCC+ CCS proje bitmiş ve linyit gazlaştırma ile 582 MW üretebiliyordu. Proje 7 milyar $’a mal olmuştu. Şimdi ise işletme maliyetinin ilk 5 yıl için 1 milyar $ olması tartışma konusu. 300-350 kişi santralde, 500 kişi de maden de çalışacak. Duke Enerjinin 1640 MW doğalgaz santrali ise 2018’de 50-75 kişi ile çalıştırılacak

30 yıldır Kalifornia’da gıda bitkileri petro ve gaz operasyonlarından atık su ile yapılmasına rağmen düzenleyici çalışmalarda bir zarara dair bir bulgu olmadığı belirtildi.

ABD’de evlerin %87sinde, Hindistan’da %5inde klima var. Hindistanda sıcak günlerin ölüm oranları üzerindeki etkisi çok büyük, 35C üzerindeki her fazla gün için Hinidstanda ölüm oranı ABD’nin 25 katı.

AB’de Kuzey akımı orta avrupa (Çek)ya bağlayan OPAL boru hattının %50sini Gazprom kullanıyordu, kalanı için de izin çıkmış. Gazprom geri kalan %50’nın de önemli kısmına erişebilecek. Toplamda %10ila %20 diğer kullanıcılara bırakılacak.AB artık bu kararı aldığını doğruladı

Global Algae Innovations, yosundan benzin üretimi konusunda verimlilik hedeflerini aştığı için ABD Enerji Bakanlığı BETO’dan fonlama almıştı. Hawai deki Kauai yosun çiftliğinde 2$/gallon’a (1.64 TL/l) yakıt üretmeye çalışıyor

Yenilenebilir devrimi kazanılmış olsa da, elektrikli araba ve ulaştırma devrimleri daha kesin değil. Şeyl üretiminde uzun süreli üretim olmadığından 2020 öncesi bir petrol fiyat sıçraması daha görülebilir. Bir diğer konu ise Swanson yasası, güneş panellerinde kurulu güç ikiye katlandıkça yatırım maliyeti %20 düşer.

Fransız gaz tüketimi 2015’te 461 Twh, yani 45 bcm civarında. Hane ve ticarethaneler %53, sanayi %36, elektrik üretimi %11.

Grafik

Pil fiyatı ve enerji yoğunluğu(IEA)


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